Any discussion that involves the well-being, or lack thereof, of the Chicago Cubs franchise must begin with a bloated payroll that has restricted them from upgrading the roster in recent years. Their six highest paid players will combine to earn a ghastly sum of $91.475 million in 2011, which is more than what 17 teams will pay their entire roster this season. Last year, these six players combined to produce 12.2 WAR, according to fangraphs, good for an average of slightly better than two WAR per player. As a reference, here is a sample of players that posted slightly better than two WAR last season: Brandon Inge, Marco Scutaro, Yunel Escobar and Juan Pierre. That’s not exactly a who’s who of superstars. With all of that being said, it is critical to note that only $52 million worth of those players will remain on the payroll in 2012. Including rough estimates for arbitration eligible players, the projected payroll for 2012 sits in the neighborhood of $96 million, which is approximately $40 million less than this season. Unless management decides to slash payroll significantly, the Cubs should have some money to spend in the 2011-12 offseason. So, there is one reason for the beer-soaked brethren of Wrigley Field to be optimistic going forward. I’m pretty sure there is a slugging first baseman slated to be a free agent that Chicago would be more than happy to sign away from a certain division rival…anyway, back to the topic at hand. If General Manager Jim Hendry can contain himself and abstain from signing high-priced, aging underachievers (the aforementioned rival first baseman notwithstanding), there is a chance that the next 12 months could go a long way toward ending the longest championship drought remaining in Major League Baseball. The same time period could also potentially send the Cubs organization into the throes of yet another prolonged stay at the bottom of the standings. Will Hendry and company use this time and roster/financial flexibility to finally bring that long-awaited World Series title to the north side faithful? Three Reasons for Cubs Fans To Be Optimistic Geovany Soto Can Hit If I asked you who had the highest OPS of any catcher in Major League Baseball with at least 300 plate appearances in 2010, what would be your answer? In a different context, chances are most of you would guess Joe Mauer or perhaps even Buster Posey or Brian McCann. If you did, you would be wrong. And since this is a column about the Cubs, you need to learn how take hints a little better. So, if you are now uttering the name of Geovany Soto, you have the correct answer. Soto put up a fantastic season at the plate last season, albeit in only 387 plate appearances, and has shown the ability to do so in two of his first three seasons at the big league level. By way of his relative youth and service time, Soto is still a bargain. However, this won’t last too much longer, as Soto will be a free agent after the 2013 season unless Chicago signs him to an extension. If he keeps putting up seasons like he did last year, those free agent years could get mighty expensive. Catchers who produce at an elite level offensively do not grow on trees, so taking advantage of production from a position that is usually devoid of such would be in the team’s best interest. If the Cubs can rise to prominence over the next couple of years, Soto will likely be a big part of that success and will force the Chicago organization to lock him up for a few of his free agent years. Starlin Castro Has the Chance to Be an Elite Two-Way Shortstop When the Cubs brought up Castro in early May last season, a lot of pundits scoffed at the notion of promoting him to the majors at such a young age. Just 20 years old at the time, handling one of the toughest positions in the field and batting near the top of the order is a lot to ask of a kid. Castro, however, did not disappoint, having compiled the second best batting average and fourth best on base percentage among all major league shortstops. Early on in 2011, Castro is doing his best to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke with a .907 OPS. With the dearth of talent, especially offensive talent, that currently resides at the shortstop position (the same can be said regarding Soto and the catcher position), having Castro enables Chicago to fill other positions with similarly talented offensive players. That’s not to say he is a slouch on defense by any means. He has fantastic range and a good arm, but tends to make simple mistakes as many 21 years olds are prone to do, as evidenced by the 27 errors he committed in 2010. The Cubs are going to have to live with the mistakes at the moment, but as long as they are patient, I think it to be a realistic possibility that Castro is a top five overall shortstop by the end of this season (if he isn’t already). The Cubs Will Have Money To Spend As outlined in the introduction, Chicago will have quite a bit of money coming off the books this offseason and the next. It will be a critical juncture in which the decision making must be spot-on in order to have the most positive impact on the future of the club. By 2013, gone will be the likes of Kosuke Fukudome, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and most likely Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena as well. For Cubs fans sake, here’s hoping that their beloved hometown team doesn’t spend money just for the sake of doing so. Since more and more superstars in their mid-to-late twenties are signing extensions before they reach free agency, the talent in the free agent pool seems to look worse and worse, and not to mention older, every year. Chicago will need to avoid paying big bucks for players’ past performance, which is undoubtedly a fine line to walk. Shelling out major dough for players in the decline phase of their careers is what has been killing the Cubs. With all of that being said, chances are all of that goes out the window when it comes to signing Albert Pujols. Stealing him away from a bitter rival will indeed be one of the biggest coups in recent memory, but will it be worth $300 million over the next 10 years? They should be able to afford it, but will it be in the best interest of the team? Three Reasons for Cubs Fans To Be Pessimistic Alfonso Soriano Might Be the Most Untradeable Asset In the Game Today Seeing as the Toronto Blue Jays were successful in trading their “untradeable asset” this offseason, it really might be folly labeling anyone else with that tag going forward. Even though Vernon Wells is owed $86 million through 2014 compared to Soriano’s $72 million in the same timeframe, I don’t think the Angels have room for another overpriced outfielder. I say this because I can’t imagine there is another club willing to take on such an enormous contract for such an under-performing player. Here are Soriano’s numbers before his days with the Cubs and after: Pre-Cubs: .281/.327/.512/.840 With Cubs: .270/.325/.506/.830 The problem here isn’t so much the offense he has produced, although he has been demonstrably more inconsistent with Chicago, it is the rest of his game that is lacking. Prior to his mammoth contract, Soriano was an elite basestealer, having averaged 35 steals per season compared to 10 since. He also used to play a position, second base, where offense is hard to find. Now he plays left field, which is probably the easiest position other than first base to find offense, be it through free agency or trade. He has also been far less durable. In the six seasons prior to his current contract, Soriano averaged 155 games played per season compared to 127 since. The power/speed combination that Soriano the second baseman provided in his younger, more spry years might be worth $18 million per year. This current version is most definitely not. Carlos Zambrano and the Voices in His Head Rarely Agree on Anything Really, who knows what to think about Zambrano? He is one of the most unpredictable personalities in sports, but one who relies on emotion to fuel his success (and sometimes lack thereof). The high water mark of combustibility was no doubt the dugout tirade he went on during a game in which he was pitching on June 25, 2010. It resulted in an indefinite suspension that ended with him missing more than a month and coming back as a member of the bullpen. His stay as a reliever didn’t last long, as he was back in the rotation after three appearances. Can you venture a guess at his numbers following the suspension? While it was only 74 innings, it was 74 innings of a 1.58 ERA, .195 batting average against and a .547 OPS against. If there were a magic pill that focused all of one’s energy on positive productivity, I can’t think of a player that would benefit more from it than Zambrano. The Combination of Hendry’s Decision-Making and Indifference from Cubs Fans Wrigley Field has been described as more so of an attraction in and of itself rather than the home of the Chicago Cubs. While there is cheering when the home team wins, 102 years of losing would leave the home fans of any team jaded. Nevertheless, the fans spin the turnstiles in droves year in and year out at Wrigley, which begs the question of whether or not winning has any effect on the team’s finances whatsoever. Win or lose, the place is packed. What motivation is there for a front office if the cost of winning outweighs the added income it would provide? I’m not going into an in-depth analysis of the additional revenue a championship would provide the Cubs organization, but, superficially, it is something that must be considered. Ultimately, owners want to make money. If you aren’t required to win to do so, then what kind of pressure is being put on Hendry to deliver a World Series title to a fan base that has waited so long for one? Also, what has Jim Hendry done to prove that he is even capable of making shrewd enough moves to push his team into that elite level, despite being handed one of the top payrolls in the sport? It’s a touch and go situation on the north side of Chicago and Hendry’s seat is undoubtedly hot. For the organization’s sake, here’s hoping that he doesn’t make hasty moves motivated by job security and not the club’s long term success.