How no one here at Real GM Baseball has gotten around to analyzing the hot start of what is now the best team in baseball, the Cleveland Indians, is beyond me. Far be it from me to deny the public what they desire, let’s take a look at how this group of whippersnappers have taken to the American League like a lion cub sent out by its mother into the wild to fend for itself for the first time. While the American League Central division might not be the animal kingdom of the baseball landscape, Cleveland is nevertheless the ruler of this domain thus far in 2011.
I will spare you from any further zoological references to illustrate my point, but the fact remains that the Indians are an upstart bunch with their sights set firmly on a playoff berth. It might be early for such talk, but with a six-game lead and no one else in the division playing inspired baseball at the moment, it isn’t hard to imagine a mid- to high-eighties win team taking the crown at season’s end. In fact, even if the Indians were to play .500 ball for the remainder of the season, they would finish with 87 wins.
The method to the Indians’ madness is that of a balanced approach to all facets of the game, including pitching, hitting and defense. It wasn’t long ago when these same Indians limped to the finish line in 2010 and ended the season 25 games out of first place. That couldn’t be any different than what has transpired this season, despite a roster that is largely unchanged. It appears the biggest difference between this year’s team and last year’s 69 win incarnation is that the youngsters have gained a valuable year of experience.
The starting rotation for Cleveland might have been the biggest question mark of this team coming into the season, but those concerns have been assuaged almost a third of the way into 2011. While many expected this group to be led by Fausto Carmona and possibly Carlos Carrasco, it has been the dynamic duo of Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin that have looked like co-aces to this point. Masterson is a guy who has been touted as a breakout candidate at times during his young career, but his struggles against lefties have been well chronicled. The key thus far this season, however, has been his ability to throw strikes against left handers, having only walked 2.93 southpaw batters per nine innings compared to previous career figure of 4.88. This subtle adjustment has been a big part of Masterson posting a 2.50 ERA over his first ten starts of the year.
Masterson’s partner in crime, Tomlin, has also done an excellent job at limiting baserunners, having walked only 1.37 batters per nine innings, the second lowest figure among all major league starters. Amazingly, he has allowed opposing hitters to bat a paltry .202 off of him, leading to a 0.90 WHIP, fourth best among starters. Statistics like these would make sense given Tomlin’s ERA currently sits at 2.74. However, there is reason to believe that he could morph back into a pumpkin in the near future, as his batting average on balls in play is a miniscule .197, his percentage of runners left on base is 85.1% and his FIP is 4.40, all indicators that Tomlin has been quite lucky in the early going.
The Indians offense is another tale of unexpected, yet excellent, results. Almost everyone who steps into the batter’s box in a Cleveland uniform is performing at a higher level than what was otherwise projected of them pre-season. That is, everyone except for the two guys who they thought would be carrying their offense, Carlos Santana and the perennially underrated Shin-Soo Choo. These two would-be middle of the order bats, believe it or not, have lower slugging percentages than such slap-hitters as Alberto Callaspo, Chris Coghlan and Brett Gardner. This is all the more reason to be impressed with Cleveland’s hot start on offense.
What is most surprising is the level of power that this team has displayed at the plate, having mashed their way to a .416 collective slugging percentage thus far, good for fourth best in all of baseball. In fact, the Indians currently have a whopping eight players with at least four home runs on the season. No other team in baseball can make that claim. However, only Asdrubal Cabrera has more than six, with the shortstop having already mashed his way to double digits with ten. It’s unfortunate for Indians fans that one-time face of the franchise Grady Sizemore has battled injuries, because having him at full strength would add even more pop to an offense that seems to be chock full of it already. He returned from his most recent injury on Friday as a DH, as Manny Acta is doing his best to keep his bat in the lineup.
Even Travis Hafner is getting into the act, hitting at a level that hasn’t been seen from him since before he signed his much-maligned contract extension in 2007. Pronk, as he is affectionately known, may not be hitting home runs at the rate that he did in his heyday, but his .958 OPS is nothing to sneeze at. That is the kind of production every team is looking for out of a full time designated hitter. Unfortunately, Hafner was recently placed on the disabled list with a strained oblique muscle and is expected to miss three to four weeks with the injury.
Of course, no analysis of this team would be complete without delving into the, dare I say it, potential MVP campaign that the aforementioned slugging shortstop, Cabrera, is settling into. Despite what most would call a very good start to the season that saw Cabrera produce a triple slash line of .264/.328/.446 through May 4, he has taken off with a line of .368/.415/.671 with five home runs since. Those are the type of numbers you would expect out of the elite sluggers in the game, not from your shortstop. It appears as if Cabrera is making a bee line for the All Star Game in Phoenix, Arizona.
The relief corps of the 2011 Indians is another aspect of this team that has performed beyond expectations, posting the third best ERA in the AL with a 3.16 figure. In fact, this unit features four pitchers who have pitched at least 14 innings that all currently hold an ERA under 2.00. That quartet doesn’t even include their closer, Chris Perez, who is at a nifty 2.70 ERA.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to find a fundamental weakness in the 2011 version of the Cleveland Indians. Even more difficult is going to be finding reasons why this team will not be marching towards the playoffs come September. Furthermore, this is a team that has gone 8-5 against the vaunted AL East. All signs point to the Indians being a much more serious contender than in recent years. Who knows what this team is capable of once Choo and Santana get their power stroke back in gear?
Jason Follain is the Senior Baseball Writer for RealGM.com. Please feel free to send comments, suggestions and feedback to Jason Follain directly at [email protected]
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