Spring has sprung and pitchers and catchers are upon us. As a matter of fact, Wednesday marks the day when the last club, the Minnesota Twins, will have their first full workout as a team. As far as I?m concerned, we are all set for baseball virtually every single day for the next eight months. This makes me a happy man.
Teams spent the offseason evaluating their perceived needs and addressing them in one way or another, be it via trade, free agency, youth movement or international acquisition. By this time, even before the first full workout, teams normally have a pretty good idea what the starting lineup will look like on Opening Day 2011. If your team doesn?t, then you have the front office to thank, seeing as there were almost four baseball free months in order to do so.
In the event that your home team doesn?t know who will be manning positions one through eight on the scorecard, granted you are a National League fan, what will follow is a run down of apparent positional battles that currently exist in the senior circuit. Going on the premise that teams with lesser expectations are normally teams with a higher frequency of positional uncertainty, this analysis will focus on teams with a reasonable expectation to challenge for a playoff berth. While I may indeed be ignoring this year?s version of the 2010 Padres, in the interest of brevity, it must be done.
A few of the situations outlined below will undoubtedly develop into a left/right platoon situation as the season progresses, this I realize. However, what I am going to try and determine is the Opening Day starter, nothing more and nothing less. Seeing as when a competition for a starting spot arises, the player with the better spring training performance usually determines who starts on Opening Day, regardless of the handedness of the opposing team?s starting pitcher. At this point in time, we don?t have any Cactus or Grapefruit league statistics, therefore we can only go with historical data. Here we go:
Team: Atlanta Braves
Position in question: Center Field
Candidates: Nate McLouth (2010 wOBA: .283, Career UZR: -11.1) and Jordan Schafer (n/a, -13.0)
The Atlanta Braves have been searching for a solution in center since Andruw Jones skipped town intent on robbing the Los Angeles Dodgers of many millions of dollars. Management afforded Schafer every opportunity to seize the position back in spring training 2009. He won the job outright, but was unable to get a handle on major league pitching and was sent down to the minors for additional seasoning. He promptly had surgery to repair a bum wrist and hasn?t been back with the big club since.
It?s easy to tell who Braves fans will be rooting for out of the gates, seeing as McLouth has not impressed anyone at the plate since his arrival midseason in 2009. Schafer has youth on his side, a fantastic reputation with the glove and, maybe most importantly, the propensity to take a walk at the plate. All of these cannot be uttered about his competition, McLouth. However, youth is fickle and McLouth is in a contract year. These are both good reasons why this is not as clear cut as it may seem.
Verdict: Jordan Schafer
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Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Position in question: Every infield position not currently occupied by Albert Pujols
Candidates: Nick Punto (0.293, 18.3), David Freese (0.341, -1.8), Skip Schumaker (0.299, -12.9) and Ryan Theriot (0.286, 1.4)
It sure is a good thing that the Cardinals have the greatest hitter on the planet minding first base, because the rest of his infield mates aren?t known for their success at the plate. It?s a good thing their outfield figures to make up for that deficiency. The guy with the highest offensive upside appears to be sophomore third baseman Freese, but he is coming off of a couple injuries in 2010. If he is able to replicate his offensive production with the big club before the injury bug hit, he should be able to nail down the third base job with a decent spring.
Punto might play into the third base competition given his versatility in the infield (history shows that he is more than capable at all three positions), but the main competition he faces is most likely for the starting shortstop position in what should be a two man race between him and Theriot. Neither player will be posting gaudy offensive numbers, or even league average for the position perhaps, so it remains highly likely that defense might play a bigger role in this competition than the others looked at here.
The loser of the shortstop contest will likely be competing with Schumaker for the everyday second baseman?s job, with defense figuring quite heavily as well. Schumaker is not known for his defensive prowess, having submitted back-to-back well below average seasons at the keystone, according to UZR. His offensive production has declined steadily over the past four seasons as well, which will not help his cause.
Verdict: 3B: David Freese, 2B: Ryan Theriot, SS: Nick Punto
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Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Position in question: LF/CF
Candidates: Tony Gwynn (0.276, 14.2), Jay Gibbons (0.346, -3.0), Marcus Thames (0.365, -8.7)
In the bleachers formerly known as Mannywood, the fans will be cheering on a new left fielder on opening day for the first time in three years. This might be a good or a bad thing, depending on how you look at it. Nevertheless, there are three players looking to land a regular gig for the 2011 Dodgers. The most well known name on the list is no doubt Gwynn, but time is running out for Tony Jr. to make a significant mark with his major league career. If Gwynn hits well enough to earn a spot in the starting lineup, there is a good chance that rookie manager Don Mattingly will slide Matt Kemp over to left field and hand the center field duties to Gwynn. It is no secret that Gwynn has the ability to patrol the position with the best in the game, but unless he steps his game up at the plate, he will find himself riding the pine as a late-inning defensive replacement.
The other two candidates, Gibbons and Thames, are basically mirror images of the same hitter, swing-from-their-rear-end, power hitting veterans who are on the verge of being defensive hacks. If Gwynn can?t show the ability to get consistent, solid contact at the plate, the two veterans will likely platoon in left. I can?t think of one baseball fan I know that doesn?t root for Gwynn to succeed, given his dad?s status as one of the greatest hitters and best people this game has seen. Count me in.
Verdict: CF: Tony Gwynn, Jr.
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Team: San Francisco Giants
Position in question: LF/1B
Candidates: Pat Burrell (0.371, -6.4), Mark DeRosa (0.241, 1.2), Brandon Belt (n/a, n/a)
The World Series champs brought back virtually every position player from last season except for the MVP of the fall classic, Edgar Renteria, and his teammate on the left side of the infield Juan Uribe. The position battle at hand is more about players that didn?t figure into the lineup plans last year, as DeRosa was injured for the vast majority of 2010 and Belt was busy tearing up every level of the minors. Burrell was a very pleasant surprise last season and management is not counting on the same level of production in 2010, hence the existence of a competition in the first place. In the same vein, there is no certainty that DeRosa will be able to bounce back to his pre-injury form either.
The ambiguity of the situation may leave the door cracked just enough for Belt to burst upon the scene in the Cactus League and earn him a spot on the Opening Day lineup card. He undoubtedly has proven himself on the farm, having combined for a .352 /.455/.620 slash line at all three levels in 2010. His stock rose perhaps more than any other minor leaguer in baseball last year, having been only a fifth round draft pick in 2009. Since then, he has risen into the upper echelon of prospect lists going into 2011. The reason he is considered part of the competition here is that incumbent first baseman Aubrey Huff proved that he was more than capable of manning a corner outfield spot last season. Thus, if Belt proves worthy of being a starter in what is generally considered an average or worse offense, Huff will likely be pushed to the outfield with Belt starting at first base.
Verdict: 1B: Brandon Belt
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Team: Cincinnati Reds
Position in question: SS
Candidates: Paul Janish (0.315, 10.6), Edgar Renteria (0.314, 0.2)
Speaking of the reigning World Series MVP, Renteria is a combatant in the next position battle. Janish has struggled to put a stranglehold on the starting shortstop position over the past two seasons despite his sparkling defensive play. It?s his lackluster offense that has been holding him back. However, his 2010 numbers show an improved approach at the plate, having posted a .723 OPS. This may not seem like anything to write home about, except when you realize that his career figure prior to 2010 was .582.
Renteria, however, might not prove to be much of an upgrade, on the whole. Renteria is a solid fielder, but his range has been sorely lacking in recent seasons. He is also always an injury risk at this point in his career, having only appeared in 196 games over the past two seasons. Who knows, maybe a World Series MVP award is what Renteria needed to catapult his game back to respectability? On the other hand, Cincinnati has gobs of offensive talent and could probably use any additional glovework, especially at a premium defensive position like shortstop.
Verdict: Paul Janish
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Team: Colorado Rockies
Position in question: 3B
Candidates: Ty Wigginton (0.316, -16.1), Ian Stewart (0.337, 1.4)
Like a lot of position battles, the one that the Rockies have on their hands is a choice between a known quantity in the veteran Wigginton, and the untapped potential of the soon-to-be 26 year old Stewart. Wigginton normally brings bad defense with a smattering of power to the table. However, he can be prone to hot streaks that may force his way into the lineup. Colorado will also be his sixth team in nine seasons, perhaps proving that his skill set doesn?t necessarily convince his employer that he is worthy of handing the starting nod to over the long haul.
Conversely, Stewart has teased the Rockies in his four seasons with his combination of power and patience from the hot corner. Seeing as he is a left-handed hitter, he should grab the lion?s share of the playing time as the season progresses. Opening Day, on the other hand, is usually an event where veterans end up getting the benefit of the doubt. One of these days, though, Stewart is bound to break out and establish himself as a major league regular. Is 2011 the year?
Verdict: Ian Stewart
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