With most of the hot stove heavy lifting already completed, we can accurately identify the winners and losers of the 2010-2010 MLB offseason. But rather than breaking down moves that every team has made to come to an overall grade, I will focus on the fact that a distinct favorite has emerged in both leagues going into 2011. I doubt there are too many analysts arguing about who these teams are, with the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies improving themselves so significantly in certain areas that they have separated themselves from the pack. Baseball, however, is a sport where odds-on favorites can go to die. In a league where a 162 game season usually does a good job of revealing the eight best teams, the sprint to the finish can foil many teams that were otherwise successful over the course of the marathon. This is caused by not only teams getting hot at the right time in October, but a team?s weaknesses being highlighted, and thus exploited, in the postseason. Both of the favorites have shortcomings that, over the course of a season, can be compensated for because of the relative strength in other aspects of the game. What gets hidden easily in the regular season, however, becomes a source of frustration in the playoffs. Where could the Phillies and Red Sox possibly get in their own way en route to what they, and many others for that matter, believe is a championship destiny? Let?s not start printing those World Series tickets just yet. The Red Sox pulled off a historic few days at the winter meetings in which they were able to acquire arguably the best available hitter on the free agent market and the best available hitter on the trade market. That is no small feat. In addition to the thump that was added to the lineup in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, Boston also shored up their bullpen woes by signing both Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler. These two signings completed a formidable quartet of hurlers in a bullpen that struggled at times last season. So, with the offense and the bullpen set, that leaves us with a starting rotation that possesses plenty of name recognition. It?s a shame that name recognition does not translate directly into results on the field, though. The only member of the rotation who can be considered a sure thing is soon-to-be 27 year old ace Jon Lester. The consistency that Lester has shown over the past three seasons has been nothing short of amazing. In that span, Lester has averaged 207 innings per season, 8.72 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 and a 3.29 ERA in the best division in baseball. The same can?t be said for the rest of his rotation mates. While Clay Buchholz had a stellar first full season at the major league level, outside of ERA (2.33), there isn?t much in the way of statistics that show he will be able to sustain this kind production going forward. His strikeout totals were lower than the league average at 6.22 K/9, so he isn?t blowing opposing hitters away. His walk rates are higher than league average at 3.47 BB/9, so he can?t be considered a control pitcher. His BABIP of .265, third lowest in the American League among qualified starters, suggests that he was luckier than most. Buchholz also drastically cut down the frequency in which he gave up home runs from the previous two seasons, so much so that it isn?t a reach to suggest that it might be a category that will trend back toward his major league career norm. All in all, it is entirely possible that the Red Sox?s wunderkind performs much more like a third or even fourth starter in his second full season in the majors. Last offseason, when the Red Sox signed this next starter to a very A.J. Burnett-esque contract, little did they know that he would respond by posting similar numbers to the player his contract was modeled after. John Lackey was more about quantity, as in innings, than quality in 2010. While he did accumulate 215 innings pitched, he also saw his strikeout rate decrease for the fifth straight season. This past campaign saw him average more than a half a strikeout per nine innings less than he did compared to 2009. His walk rates increased 36% over what he was accustomed to over his previous three seasons, leading to him posting the highest xFIP of his career. While Lackey?s relative struggles could possibly be the result moving from one of the easier divisions in baseball to the toughest, I am of the belief that it is equally possible that it could be the beginning of a downward trend in production. After all, 2011 will be his age 32 season. Josh Beckett, another high-priced member of the Boston rotation, saw 2010 come and go with him laboring through what was undoubtedly the worst season of his professional career. Among starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched, his 5.78 ERA ranked third worst in the American League. Beckett totaled fewer innings than he had pitched in any of the last eight seasons, having suffered through an injury-riddled campaign. He also gave up 2.4 more hits per nine innings than his previous career average to go along with an increase of half a walk per nine innings, all leading to a career worst (by far) 1.535 WHIP. Beckett is no stranger to bouncing between good and bad seasons, but Red Sox fans better hope that is the case this time around or else they could be left paying for an ace-like extension worth $63 million over four years that doesn?t kick in until next season for far less than ace-like production on the mound. The last member of the rotation, Daisuke Matsusaka, in a way is the most expensive starter that Boston has on the roster. Remember, in addition to his $10 million salary in 2011 and 2012, the Red Sox paid over $51 million simply for the right to negotiate with him in 2006. If you were to prorate that figure over six years, the length of his contract, essentially he is to make over $18.5 million in each of the next two seasons. That seems like quite the overpay for a guy who has averaged only 127 innings per season over the previous three campaigns. The numbers have been even uglier over the past two seasons, with Matsusaka accumulating a 4.99 ERA and 1.512 WHIP while walking 4.4 batters per nine innings. His strikeout rates have decreased every season since he came over to MLB, so even though he is only 29 years old, it appears as if the heavy workload on his arm at an early age in Japan will continue to plague him going forward. So, while the Boston Red Sox have absolutely established themselves as a force to be reckoned with for the upcoming season, it remains to be seen whether or not they possess a starting rotation with the wherewithal to bring home a championship. All of the starters listed above are quite capable of turning in fantastic seasons, as they have in the past, but based on their recent success, or lack thereof, I am of the opinion that it is more likely that disappointment could follow. That is, the Boston rotation could be league average, or even worse, as the 2011 Red Sox push for their third World Series in eight years. The undisputed winner of the offseason in the National League was the Philadelphia Phillies, who pulled off maybe the biggest coup of the hot stove league. In one of the rare instances where the mystery team came out on top, Cliff Lee signed on to form the most formidable rotation in all of baseball. While the Phillies proved that they possessed the resources to join the upper echelon of player payroll spenders, they too might have a deficiency that could prevent them from reaching the Promised Land for the second time in four years. The old adage is, ?good pitching beats good hitting.? This notion is what a lot of people used to describe the Phillies succumbing to the San Francisco Giants in the 2010 NLCS. In all likelihood, assuming the Phillies make the playoffs in 2011, they will face good pitching there as well. However, the offense will most likely be worse off than it was this past season. Losing Jayson Werth is a very big blow to a team whose offensive reputation seems to have outgrown reality over the course of the past year or so. While the Phillies were, by most measures, the fourth best offensive team in the National League in 2010 (according to OPS, wOBA and wRC+), if you were to remove Werth?s production from the formula, the Phillies? OPS drops from .745 to .726. Instead of fourth, that figure would have ranked them eighth among National League offenses. For a team with supposed star power in the form of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, et al, the Phillies lack the punch necessary to call themselves an elite lineup. Werth was a significant piece of the puzzle and it is hasty to assume that rookie Domonic Brown will be able to come in and immediately perform at even a similar level. While 2007, his MVP campaign, and 2008 saw Rollins perform as one of the best all around offensive threats in the game, the past two seasons have been anything but. For a player who has been considered one of the best leadoff hitters around, Rollins posted a combined .304 on base percentage over that span. His slugging percentage also dipped to a career low .374 in 2010, as he battled injuries en route to a career low 88 games played (excluding his September cup of coffee in 2000). He may not be as bad as his latest performance suggests, but I think it is safe to say that his days as an elite tablesetter have passed. Raul Ibanez is heading into the final season of a three year contract that will pay him $11.5 million in 2011. Considering that he will turn 39 next June, it?s a safe bet to assume that his best offensive days are behind him. It?s going to be hard to justify sending Ibanez to the bench with his salary, so the Phillies are most likely stuck with him in left field for the foreseeable future. Due to the lack of power he displayed and his less than stellar defense, FanGraphs pegged him as a 1.8 WAR player in 2010. That ranked Ibanez 24th out of 31 National League outfielders with 500 plate appearances, cementing the commonly held belief that the three year contract he signed two offseasons ago was about two years two many. While Ryan Howard is absolutely a prototypical slugging first baseman that any team would be desirous of, there is a widely held sentiment that the Phillies overpaid in signing him to his most recent contract extension. His $25 million per year salary (when you take into consideration a $10 million buyout) doesn?t kick in until after the 2011 season, so the Phillies are banking on Howard being the slugger he was in his first three years. From 2005 to 2007, Howard ranked third in all of MLB with a 1.009 OPS, certainly deserving of the type of contract extension he received. However, from 2008-2010, Howard accumulated an OPS of .892, ranking 26th among his peers. Combine this decrease in overall offensive production with the fact that he posts prodigious strikeout numbers (32% K rate for his career) and so-so defense, and it is a recipe for disappointment going forward. So, if I was a baseball fan in the Philadelphia or New England area, I would be a little hesitant to start clearing your schedule for late October/early November, 2011. While these two teams have set themselves up very well to compete for a World Series title for the next several years, success is not guaranteed. To draw a comparison from another sport, the Miami Heat quickly became the villains of the NBA when they decided to load up on premium talent. Don?t be surprised if the same sentiment is applied to the two favorites on paper in 2011.