By Carl Setterlund I just can?t contain my glee ladies and gentlemen because today we?re going to tackle quite a large group. Inarguably starting pitcher is the deepest of all positions, leading to more draft possibilities than we can discuss. There are thirty teams and five starting pitchers on each, and after counting the numerous injuries that occur, there end up being over 200 starters that see significant time each year. Now, of course not all of these guys are good, but therein lies the reason this list will only go 50 deep. With a list so deep, of course we he at RealGM would be shortchanging you if we only provided notes on the top ten, which is why comments will be scattered among the remaining forty who made the list. Enjoy the analysis from #1 all the way to fifty. 1. Johan Santana ? Age: 27 - 2005 Stats: 231.2 IP/ 16 Ws/ 238 Ks/ 2.87 ERA/ 0.973 WHIP In this day and age, Santana has been the constant among a group that seems unpredictable or inconsistent at least. Not Johan, who at 27 is in his peak years, as can be recognized by his 2003 stats. It must be noted of course, that 2005 was somewhat of a down year for Santana who slumped in the early part of the season. Santana is the only pitcher who I trust to be both consistent and excellent. He is the only pitcher who I feel about when I say he should go for 250 strikeouts, a 2.80 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. With a slightly improved offense around him, the win total should also rise, probably closer to 2004?s 20 wins rather than last year?s 16. Like I said, Santana is the only top pitcher I would put all my trust in, and he is the only pitcher you should consider in the top 15. In fact, I think Santana makes for the best selection at #3 and after, assuming A-Rod and Pujols are gone. 2. Chris Carpenter ? Age: 31 - 2005 Stats: 241.2 IP/ 21 Ws/ 213 Ks/ 2.83 ERA/ 1.057 WHIP It seems risky to bank on a breakout player in his thirties to repeat the magic of last year, but when you take a look at the numbers, Carpenter has been dominant since 2004. While last year was probably the best we?ll see out of Carpenter, he?s off too another strong showing already this spring and should repeat somewhere in the vicinity of his 2005 Cy Young performance. The Cardinals? ace is a legit 200 strikeout threat while his ERA should hover around (or below) 3.00 and his WHIP relatively the same. If the appeal of what I?ve already said wasn?t enough to draw you in, remember Carpenter has an Albert Pujols-led offense providing run support, meaning he?ll see 20 win territory again this year. His age (31) is not nearly the issue that it is made out to be by some as Carpenter should be solid (more than solid, he should be spectacular) once again this season. 3. Jake Peavy ? Age: 24 - 2005 Stats: 203 IP/ 13 Ws/ 216 Ks/ 2.88 ERA/ 1.044 WHIP The vibe I get when talking to fantasy owners about Jake Peavy is either ?ber-confidence or weariness, and so it?s reasonable to wonder why I?d have him so high while some still question his output. The thing about Jake Peavy is that there?s plenty to like. He?s 24 and already has 4 seasons under his belt. He is the ace of the San Diego Padres who play at PETCO Park, perhaps the most pitcher-friendly fields in the league. If that wasn?t enough, Peavy also plays division games against Los Angeles and San Francisco who play at two of the other more pitcher-friendly parks out there. There is very little injury concern about Peavy, a luxury when you realize that half of top ten consists of more fragile pitchers. As he keeps maturing, Peavy?s numbers will only keep getting better, and this season he is a lock (if healthy) to finish with well over 200 strikeouts. The only thing about Peavy that causes skeptics to continue to raise eyebrows is the supporting cast he has around him. Remember when I mentioned that others are weary of drafting Peavy so high? This is the reason why. While the defense around him will be above average, the Padres offense is going to be one of the worst in the league, and not just because of the field they play at. For this reason, 15 wins is going to be a struggle. If you think you can get your wins elsewhere with a cheap pickup on a winning team (Jeff Suppan anyone?) then by all means take Peavy in the top 25 and don?t look back. 4. Carlos Zambrano ? Age: 24 - 2005 Stats: 223.1 IP/ 14 Ws/ 202 Ks/ 3.26 ERA/ 1.147 WHIP Again we see the youth movement as another 24-year-old ace joins the top five on this list. Zambrano has proven his worth the past couple seasons and has emerged as the only reliable starter from the Cubs terrifying trio of old (I don?t expect Prior or Wood to ever be fully healthy again). Like Peavy there is just so much to like about Victor?.uhh, I mean Carlos Zambrano. Also 24, with four full seasons under his belt? well we won?t get into the specifics of the steadily increasing numbers because we just went over this with Peavy. It should tell you something that the Cubs were unwilling to part with Zambrano in a deal for Miguel Tejada over the offseason. I really think a lot of Carlos and this he will be one of the seven or eight pitchers to strike out over 200 batters (that seems to be a trend in the top 5). While the elite ERA isn?t there, the strong WHIP should stay and plenty of wins should come as well. What I find most encouraging is that Zambrano slaved over the offseason to lose his extra bulk in an effort to chase the Cy Young this year. More important even than the new svelte figure is the desire to succeed. This guy is for real so grab him in the top 40. 5. Pedro Martinez ? Age: 34 - 2005 Stats: 217 IP/ 15 Ws/ 208 Ks/ 2.82 ERA/ 0.949 WHIP Pedro is honestly the elite pitcher I?ve stayed away from so far in the leagues I?ve been in. While I drafted him on the cheap in 2005 and enjoyed the wildly successful year, I can?t help but see his demise looming. At 34, with a deteriorating shoulder, a sore toe and a general reputation of being (how do I say this?) delicate, the numbers can?t go anywhere but down. I?m truly impressed that last year Pedro bounced back to get over 200 strikeouts, a sub-3.00 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP but I just can?t see him repeating his numbers this season. I get the feeling that Pedro will be nursing assorted nagging injuries (it?s the big toe right now) all season long and I?ve got to believe that he misses a few starts. He should also begin throwing more 6 inning games instead of 7 inning games, meaning his innings pitched total falls under 200. In that scenario I think he has a tough time getting all the way to two hundred strikeouts again and I think that it also means he will benefit less from the newly restocked Mets lineup. If he were to pitch strongly all season I could definitely see Pedro as a 20-game winner, but as I?m predicting a couple problems here and there I think he?ll be hard-pressed to get to 18. 6. Roy Oswalt ? Age: 28 - 2005 Stats: 241.2 IP/ 20 Ws/ 184 Ks/ 2.94 ERA/ 1.206 WHIP There has to be something said for being one of the most consistent guys in the business, and along with Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt is one of the only pitchers I truly trust on this list. 2005 was his second straight 20-win season and it was the second straight season he hovered around 240 innings pitched. His ability to eat up innings could become a problem in rotisserie leagues, but even then, he?s worth those 240 innings. While he probably won?t go for two hundred strikeouts (the 180s seems more like it) and he probably won?t repeat the sub-3.00 ERA (although he?ll come close), Oswalt brings it night in and night out. Just like with the strikeouts and ERA, his WHIP isn?t likely to be the best in the business, but still very good. Nothing about Roy Oswalt is going to jump out and say ?ELITE PITCHER!? (okay, maybe the twenty wins does) but the whole package is one of the most attractive out there. I mean, consistency is just such a hard thing to find among starting pitchers that I think Roy Oswalt?s greatest appeals comes in the assurance that he will be consistently great. I know this is boring to some of you, but sometimes it?s smarter to bet on a guy like Oswalt instead of a guy who could flash dominance here and there. 7. Randy Johnson ? Age: 42 - 2005 Stats: 225.2 IP/ 17 Ws/ 211 Ks/ 3.79 ERA/ 1.128 WHIP At 42 it?s hard to imagine Randy Johnson still in the top 10 but all you have to look at is the r?sum?. I like to think of last year as an adjustment season as Johnson moved back to the American League from his previous home in Arizona (I say moved back of course because of Johnson?s ten year tenure with the Seattle Mariners). Because his pre-rank that season was in the top 10, many viewed Johnson?s 2005 campaign as a disappointment, but he met expectations if you stayed realistic. It should have been expected that his ERA would jump upon moving to the more offense heavy of the two leagues. Still, looking at the numbers, his 2005 season was still impressive in the other three starter related categories. History shows that guys like Johnson often do better in their second season in pinstripes, just look at the adjustments Alex Rodriguez made in his second season (2005) in New York. While the age factor means Johnson isn?t going to get any better or any more dominant, the new found comfort should offset this. Even with lingering back problems, I feel confident telling you that you can punch Johnson?s ticket; he?s ready for at least one more top 10 caliber season. 8. Rich Harden ? Age: 24 - 2005 Stats: 128 IP/ 10 Ws/ 121 Ks/ 2.53 ERA/ 1.063 WHIP It?s so hard to predict a top 10 season out of a guy who has never cranked one out before, but make no mistake, Rich Harden is on the verge of dominance. Last season Harden pitched just 128 innings because of various injuries. While he could soon gain a reputation of being somewhat fragile, I don?t see a reason to believe that Harden?s injury problems continue. After a good first full season in 2004, his 2005 pace was one that was on par with those in the top 5. I?m not sure if the same type of dominance is in the cards for this season, but if he pitches the entire year, it?s going to mean 18 wins, the potential for two hundred strikeouts. To go along with that Harden could also post outstanding ERA and WHIP numbers. The key word here is that this is what he ?could? do. I see Harden as maybe the biggest ?boom or bust? player in this top 10. There is just such a small sample size to justify these predictions and that he will stay fully healthy, but the potential is definitely there. If you?re the type of manager that likes to put all the chips on the table, Harden could make a shrewd selection. 9. Roy Halladay ? Age: 28 - 2005 Stats: 141.2 IP/ 12 Ws/ 108 Ks/ 2.41 ERA/ 0.963 WHIP Halladay is the elite pitcher I?ve soured on considerably out of the crop to pick from. A lot of people seem very high on Roy this year after his showing last year along with his two spectacular seasons in the 2002-2003 period. You must remember though that this is the same Roy Halladay who carries a 3.70 career ERA and a 1.26 career WHIP. This is the same Roy Halladay who has only made 40 starts over the last two seasons and who has won only 20 games in that period. This is not the kind of track record and injury history that I want to see in a guy if I?m going to consider him in the top 50 (or higher based on where he has been going). If you go by his strikeouts per nine innings over the last two season, Halladay should struggle to reach 160 strikeouts even if he is completely healthy. I guess the run production he?s going to be receiving is better, and a solid bullpen will ensure more victories, but the supporting cast does not make the man, especially when the man is on the field less than all the other elite pitchers. I like Roy Halladay, don?t get me wrong. I?m just not sure even with his impressive numbers last season, and even at his (still) young age of 28 that Halladay will meet the top 5 expectations that seem to be following him around this year. 10. Brett Myers ? Age: 25 - 2005 Stats: 215.1 IP/ 13 Ws/ 208 Ks/ 3.72 ERA/ 1.213 WHIP Last in the top 10 is Brett Myers who even I will admit is in a spot he may not deserve. I really like Myers though after having him on multiple teams last year. He has had high expectations since being a high draft pick in the Phillies? organization in 1999. Since then he has been somewhat enigmatic, but last year he was able to bring it together and establish himself as Philadelphia?s ace. People far smarter and far better at evaluating talent than me have proclaimed him as the next Curt Schilling. Of course we always see exaggerations when making comparisons, but it?s really not all that farfetched. Myers, at 25 and entering his prime, is going to be a legit threat to repeat his two hundred strikeouts. While he plays at a little league park (ok, not really, but Citizens Banks Park is tiny), the walls were extended a little further out this year, which can only help his ERA. With what looks like one of the top offenses in the league, it?s also probable that Myers? win total increases considerably. I?m not ready to proclaim this guy the next messiah, but I?ve seen enough to know that he?s for real, and I?m seeing him go later than he should in a lot of drafts. 11. Ben Sheets ? Even starting the season on the DL, Sheets should be so dominant later in the year that he puts himself in top 10 consideration. 12. Andy Pettitte 13. Mark Buehrle 14. Felix Hernandez ? While I expect dominance in King Felix?s first full season, word that he will be kept under 200 IP diminishes his value ever so slightly. 15. Dontrelle Willis ? D-Train?s diminished supporting cast should not only hurt his win totals but lower his confidence as well. He?ll struggle to keep a sub-3.00 ERA. 16. Bartolo Colon 17. Brandon Webb ? Another season, another step closer to dominance. 18. Jason Schmidt ? Former fantasy force (say that three times fast!) should return to form after a disappointing 2005. 19. John Patterson 20. John Smoltz ? 38-year-old still has enough juice to keep himself among the group of elite pitchers. 21. John Lackey 22. Barry Zito 23. Roger Clemens ? Would be hovering around the top 10 if we had some kind of assurance of his return. 24. Danny Haren 25. Josh Beckett ? Boston weather should help keep Beckett?s blister problem under control. 26. Cliff Lee 27. Noah Lowry ? Quietly approaching the level of teammate Jason Schmidt 28. Doug Davis 29. Scott Kazmir ? Future is as bright as any pitcher in the majors. Once he gets his WHIP down, Kazmir should be top 20. 30. Zach Duke 31. Mark Prior ? I?ve just lost all faith that he?ll ever get/stay healthy. 32. Chris Capuano 33. CC Sabathia 34. Freddy Garcia 35. Curt Schilling 36. AJ Burnett 37. Oliver Perez ? Just two seasons ago Perez was a strikeout monster. This year he should rebound decently after a real down year. Perez is still young, and he still throws that fire. 38. Derek Lowe 39. Mark Mulder 40. Tim Hudson 41. Aaron Heilman 42. Erik Bedard ? Working with Leo Mazzone should do wonders for the entire Baltimore staff. While Daniel Cabrera has the best ?stuff? I think Bedard is the one who puts it together this season. 43. Matt Cain 44. Chris Young ? Moving from THE hitters? park to THE pitchers? park will do wonder for Young?s numbers. He?s a sure sleeper candidate. 45. Jon Garland 46. Kevin Millwood 47. Jeremy Bonderman - Just 23 with three full seasons under his belt, Bonderman continues to put it together. While the ERA and WHIP aren?t there yet, his numbers are only getting better. The strikeouts are another perk. 48. Joe Blanton 49. Matt Clement 50. Javier Vazquez ? The last to make the list should have mixed results. That park in Chicago is not a pitcher?s friend, but you can be sure that that White Sox offense is. Sleeper Material: It?s hard to find sleepers at the top because it seems that the mood around fantasy leagues this year is that managers are taking their starting pitching very seriously. However, a couple of guys they don?t seem to be taking seriously are Mark Buehrle and Brandon Webb. I?d be thrilled to land one of these guys as my #2 starter and I?d be content even if they ended up as my #1 pitcher. A lot of people overlook the development of guys like John Lackey and Doug Davis into 200 strikeout players. Oliver Perez is forgotten by more than half of the managers out there and he will be a late round steal. I feel the same about Erik Bedard and think he will develop nicely this year under Leo Mazzone. For some reason everyone has forgotten that Derek Lowe is a valuable and productive starter. Then in leagues with no IP threshold, old inning eaters like Greg Maddux and Esteban Loaiza still make real solid late round selections. Keeper Material: To point out the obvious, there are several guys in the top 10 (and top 17) who are in the early or mid-twenties and who have already become borderline dominant pitchers. Just to name a couple there are Santana, Peavy, Zambrano, Harden, Myers, Sheets, Buehrle, King Felix, Dontrelle and Webb all in that top 17 and all 27 or under. Out of the entire group, past Santana and Peavy, Felix Hernandez at just 20 has the potential to be an all-time great. You guys have probably already heard about the young guys like Francisco Liriano and Matt Cain, but I?ve got a couple other good names for you. There?s 22-year-old Scott Kazmir who is on his way to being a 200-strikeout pitcher very soon; then 25-year-old Dan Haren in Oakland who has ace potential; also 22-year-old Zach Duke in Pittsburgh who is going to work at getting a sub-3.00 ERA; Noah Lowry, just 25, has put together quite a nice career so far in San Francisco and keeps getting better. Lastly, for someone really focusing on the future, Justin Verlander might not have a great amount of value this season but his dominating stuff will surely make him an impact pitcher in the next couple seasons. Well I?m out for today fantasy baseball readers. I hope my work has not been in vain and that you are able to use my advice to your in advantage in these last minute drafts as the season approaches. Good luck everyone.