2008 Record: 86-76 2008 Team OPS: .731 (22nd) 2008 Starters ERA: 3.72 (1st) 2008 Relievers ERA: 2.94 (1ST) 2008 HOR Leader: Alex Rios (11.9%, 36th) 2009 Projected Team OPS: .745 2009 Projected Starters ERA: 4.25 2009 Projected Relievers ERA: 3.15 *2009 Projected Record: 82-80 * Projected Record is a formula that takes projected team OPS, starters ERA and relievers ERA into account in order to get a projected runs scored and runs allowed per game. Those figures are then inserted into the Pythagorean record formula. Recent Opsera History 2008: 4th, 3.82 2007: 9th, 3.46 2006: 4th, 3.74 2005: 15th, 3.32 2004: 27th, 2.41 2003: 15th, 3.34 2002: 21st, 2.77 2001: 14th, 3.27 - Opsera is a stat I created that ranks team based on OPS minus ERA. Click here to view the full Blue Jays Opsera history Rating The Offseason The Jays took a financial step backwards at an inopportune time, because the 2008 club was really not far away from the playoffs. They had a Pythagorean record of 92-70, which was just one game back of Tampa Bay and three behind the Red Sox as far as that stat goes. Whether it was injuries or simply because of finances, Toronto seemed to take a look at the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees and see nothing but the image of Sisyphus in the mirror when it came to competing in 2009. Re-signing A.J. Burnett was never a realistic or even prudent option and he of course signed with the Yankees. Matt Clement was a low risk, high potential reward signing, but he has been horrible in the spring. They allowed Kevin Millar to continue his AL East rock tour. Toronto allowed the Gregg Zaun era to end and exercised Rod Barjas' option and also added Michael Barrett to serve as stopgaps until J.P. Arencibia is ready behind the plate. No Dumb Questions 1. Is Vernon Wells ready (i.e. healthy) to perform at the kind of level he is being paid? 2. How will Travis Snider adjust to the big leagues? 3. Will it be humanly possible for their pitching staff to lead all of baseball in starter and reliever ERA despite the losses via free agency and injury? 4. Can the Blue Jays' offense ever be good enough to let Roy Halladay pitch in the postseason? 5. Does Cito Gaston have any of that early 90's magic left in him on this reunion tour? 5b. Why don't they bring back their awesome uniforms from the pre-1997 days? This is one of the slickest logos in the history of sports design and since it is associated with Toronto's glory days, it is sorely missed. Maximizing Potential The best case scenario for the Jays is they have an exact replication of their 2008 season on the mound and defensively, while getting a ROY campaign from Snider, a comeback year from Wells and surprising seasons from Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. Expectations are high on Snider and rightfully so. Snider comes into the 2009 season as the 6th best prospect in all of baseball, according to Baseball America's list of rankings. He projects to having very nice power and a solid OBP if he can reduce his strikeout rate. Snider should be able to tear up righty pitching from the get go, but he'll have some growing pains against lefties. What Will Likely Happen Toronto should be better offensively ands score more than just 714 runs, but they will almost certainly yield more than 610 runs. Burnett is in the Bronx, Shaun Marcum is out for the season due to Tommy John surgery and who knows when Dustin McGowan will return because of elbow problems. Jesse Litsch remains, but there are only a few pitchers who strikeout nearly half as many batters as they pitch innings while having an ERA in the 3.00's. Trading out Burnett, Marcum and McGowan for David Purcey, Brad Mills and Ricky Romero is a net loss that is almost too massive to calculate and even another Cy Young from Halladay won't really matter. I'm not sure Scott Rolen has a whole lot left in the tank of his bat, but he's at least an excellent defensive third baseman still. If Wells is healthy, he and Rios are as good as anyone in center and right field, but they need 2006 and 2003 Wells, even his bounce back 2008 with an .839 OPS isn't really good enough. The biggest underlying problem is that the Jays have so many games scheduled against three teams each capable of winning 100. If they were in the AL West, I actually would like their chances to win it, but they just don't have enough talent to compete in earnest this season, even with an excellent bullpen. What Do They Have In The Pipeline With Snider graduating on (also including Brad Mills in that category), the Blue Jays' farm system will be in a state of flux this season in terms of how they rank. Brett Cecil is probably next in line for top billing, but there are a wide array of opinions on the players thereafter. JP Riccardi has taken some hits for a few selections, such as the Ricky Romero pick in 2005 and the Blue Jays have virtually no significant reach in Latin America, but they do have a few solid pieces with varying degrees of upside and risk. I am personally really high on Justin Jackson, have a lot of confidence in J.P. Arencibia and see good quality in David Cooper. Click here to view full report on their top prospects. Predicting Their Season With A Movie Trailer A lot of movies are filmed in Toronto these days as a stand-in for New York and Chicago, so here is one of those with Halladay, Rios, Wells and Snider as the four. Who gets the Jessica Alba role though? Probably Rios. - Chris Reina is the executive editor of RealGM.com