Industry sources now view a shorter-term contract with opt-outs as a more likely outcome for Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal following his recent elbow surgery, according to reporting from ESPN. The procedure has shifted expectations around what had projected to be one of the largest pitching contracts in MLB history.
Earlier this month, Skubal underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. The operation adds to an extensive surgical history that includes Tommy John surgery in 2016 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022.
Before the latest procedure was announced, an industry straw poll of executives, scouts and agents projected Skubal's free agent value at an average of 7.7 years and $357 million, roughly $46 million per year. Those figures would have surpassed Max Scherzer's record average annual value of $43.3 million and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's guaranteed money mark of $325 million.
The elbow surgery has introduced fresh durability concerns that could reduce Skubal's open-market value. His agent, Scott Boras, has indicated the 29-year-old could return to the mound relatively soon this season.
Sources cautioned that predicting Skubal's performance upon return, the state of his free agent market, and the potential impact of MLB's labor situation remains difficult. The consensus view, however, is that a shorter deal structured with opt-outs now represents a more realistic path to keeping Skubal in Detroit than it did prior to this injury.





















