RealGM Analysis
Tier 1: Anthony Rendon, Adrian Beltre
Tier 2: Josh Donaldson, Kyle Seager, Evan Longoria
Tier 3: Nolen Arenado, Chris Davis, Todd Frazier, Carlos Santana, Matt Carpenter
Tier 4: Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, David Wright, Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Zimmerman, Aramis Ramirez, Pedro Alvarez
Tier 5: Brett Lawrie, Chase Headley, Josh Harrison, Martin Prado, Nick Castellanos, Lonnie Chisenhall, Mike Moustakas
* Note: Players in bold are my picks to outperform their ADPs.
We have yet another deep pool of strong players this year at third base. Anthony Rendon leads the charge here (yes, he sits near the top of the second base rankings as well). Beltre has gotten up there in age, but he’s still got another top-notch season left in him. You can make the case that the bottom of tier 1 and the top of tier 2 don’t present a big difference, and the same is true for end of tier 2 vs top of tier 3, etc.
The depth of this position can be best appreciated by viewing the options in tier 4, where several of those players have the ability to outperform their ADPs by a significant margin.
Looking at the third base landscape on a macro level, the best strategy is to be patient and grab two players from the tier 3 or 4 group, with at least one being an upside player. This does not mean to ignore the opportunity to grab a top player if you can get one at a draft slot that you like, but rest assured that there’s great value to be had in the lower rounds.
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