Perusing the statistical leaders during the first few weeks of the Major League Baseball season has long been one of my favorite activities related to sports. The furthest back I can trace it is when I was 10 years old and George Bell hit three home runs on opening day. I remember pulling out a calculator and being astounded by the total that would result from him keeping up this pace for an entire season: 486. Roger Maris didn?t stand a chance! Alas, Bell only hit 21 more homers that season. Looking back, I guess this was also my first lesson in small sample sizes. While the first few weeks of a season might not serve as the best barometer of what?s to come, it is very interesting to see who has gotten off to a fast start, who has failed to inspire and where we can assume them to be, production-wise, by the end of the season. It can safely be stated that there are three categories that players fall into: young and improving players approaching their prime, players in their prime and players on the down slope of their careers. In this analysis, I will to focus on pitchers. Young and improving pitchers approaching their prime Matt Garza, Rays ? Garza has been nothing short of a revelation since coming over from Minnesota in the much-ballyhooed trade for Delmon Young. Everyone knows that the AL East is unlike any other division in baseball. Last season, he compiled a 3.95 ERA while facing the Yankees or the Red Sox in nearly a third of his starts (10 out of 32). This is even more impressive when you take into consideration that he was a pitcher in his age 25 season. Garza has come out of the chute in 2010 averaging eight innings per start while giving up a total of two earned runs thus far as the undisputed ace of this young Rays? rotation. While it is highly unlikely that he will keep up this pace over the course of an entire season as evidenced by his insanely low BAbip (batting average of balls put in play), I do believe he is poised for an even further breakout season and could very well post a full season ERA in the 3.20-3.40 range. Garza could soon be wearing the label of that of a true number one starter in this league for years to come. Jon Lester, Red Sox ? Recently, John Lackey and Josh Beckett signed a free agent contract and extension, respectively, totaling $150.5 million. And while Beckett has been handed the ball the past two opening days, the entire Red Sox Nation knows darn well who the real ace in town is. His name is Jon Lester. In three starts that can only be deemed clunkers, Lester has posted an 8.44 ERA. The alarming stat being that he is averaging 5+ walks per nine innings. If he can get his control under, *ahem*, control, then he shouldn?t have a problem getting back to his consistently dominant self. For a guy that struck out just a tick under 10 batters per nine innings last year (3rd in all of MLB behind Lincecum and Verlander), it is hard to imagine that he will keep up this dreadful start. Lester will rebound, but it might take until the end of the season to bring his inflated ERA down to the low-to-mid 3?s range he has posted the last two seasons. Pitchers in their prime Roy Halladay, Phillies ? For the last year, life as Roy Halladay must have been a roller coaster. Being the Blue Jays prime trade chip, it seemed as if every day brought along new rumors about where he was heading next. Once the deal that landed him in Philadelphia was finalized, the man who many consider to be the best pitcher in baseball over the past decade was where he wanted to be all along, as evidenced by the below-market, three year contract extension he signed. If Halladay had pitched this well in the AL East for so long, Phillies fans had to be giddy about the prospects of him pitching in a weaker division in a weaker league while being supported by arguably the best offense in baseball. He has not disappointed so far in 2010. Like Garza, Halladay has averaged eight innings per over three starts, while striking out 21 and walking only two. His ERA thus far, 1.13, could double and still be considered masterful. There really is no telling how good Halladay can be this season. I believe it to be in the realm of possibility that he puts up an ERA in the low 2?s. Jake Peavy, White Sox ? Going into the 2010 season, Jake Peavy's expectations were difficult to determine. After all, the White Sox did trade for him while he was recovering from a torn ankle tendon. It?s hard to believe that Peavy is not yet 29 years old. The 2007 NL Cy Young winner came back from injury, much to the White Sox delight, and posted three fantastic starts to finish the 2009 season. Things haven?t gone so well to begin 2010, as Peavy has walked four batters per nine innings and has a 6.00 ERA. He is also striking out batters at almost half the rate we are used to seeing, 5 K/9 as opposed to a career mark of 8.97. Peavy lasted into the eighth inning in his most recent start against the Indians while only giving up four hits and two earned runs. I fully expect this to be a sign of things to come and while he may not be as dominant as he once was in the NL, a full season ERA in the 3.50 range is not out of the question. Pitchers on the down slope of their careers Livan Hernandez, Nationals ? Truth be told, Hernandez is the player that inspired this piece. Even saying that he is on the down slope of his career is being generous. The man who once had 8 hits in 8 consecutive trips to the plate (and 12 for 13, for that matter) has long been considered an ineffective starter. In fact, he has played for five different teams in the past four seasons. All that being said, the 35 year old (this is a debatable topic in and of itself) has reeled off two brilliant starts to open the 2010 season. In his first start, he held the Mets scoreless for seven innings and for his encore he threw a complete game shutout versus the potent Brewers lineup. So, everyone who predicted that Livan Hernandez would be sporting a 0.00 ERA through his first two starts, raise your hand. If your hand is raised right now, with all due respect, you are a liar. This is why I love early season statistics. Livan Hernandez is my 2010 version of George Bell. Coming back down to earth, there is a good chance that Hernandez is out of the rotation entirely in a couple months. History tells us that he will probably end up with an ERA around 5.00 or so, but that doesn?t mean we can?t enjoy it while it lasts. Jason Marquis, Nationals ? All we have to do is look down the bench from Livan Hernandez to come to our next featured starter. The only thing, however, that Jason Marquis has been featured in as of late is offensive fireworks displays. The two year contract he signed this offseason with the Nats, two years and $15 million, was universally panned as excessive and unnecessary. He is proving all of the critics right. His numbers through three starts are downright dreadful, horrific, disgusting and any other negative adjective you can dream up. Through his first two starts, Marquis compiled a nifty 12.96 ERA without making it through the 5th inning in either of them. For an encore, he took the hill against the Brewers on Sunday and threw 28 pitches. Not one of them resulted in an out. Marquis was responsible seven earned runs and no outs. This brings us to my favorite early season statistic of all, even if it is only for one game: the inability to calculate an ERA. Even though his season ERA was inflated to 20.52 by this start, the fun part is realizing that his ERA for this start is not a rational number.