Without fail, every year March beckons a phenomenal and exciting time on the sports calendar. For baseball fans, your team begins the season tied for first place, regardless of which team you root for - that’s right Mariners, Pirates and Royals fans, you’re tied for first at the moment!
Unfortunately that will change once the regular season begins. NBA fans and NHL fans can enjoy the stretch run with teams jockeying for playoff positioning (or in the case of a handful of NBA teams, tanking for the lottery developing young players for future seasons). NFL fans have free agency ongoing and the draft coming up. And of course, for college hoops fans, you have March Madness – only the best annual sporting event in North America.
So keeping up with the entire ruckus right now can pose a challenge.
Those who have read my fantasy draft guides before know that I always recommend using a tier system for organizing your draft boards. Not to repeat the reasoning in great detail, but the down and dirty version is that the tier system allows you to be most efficient with your draft picks, as it best organizes the available players in comparison to one another. Ideally, you would pass on drafting a player in the 4th round if you could get a similar player in round 7. Using the tier system, you will be aware of when to wait on a player due to a plethora of similar quality players being available at the position, or conversely, when to pounce on a player because of the drop off looming once that player is selected. A few more points to note in relation to the tier system:
- Don’t use the tier system draft board in a vacuum. You need use the overall rankings (also provided) in conjunction with the tiers, as the tiers don’t necessarily work cross-position. For example, the tier 2 outfielders (McCutchen, Kemp and C. Gonzalez) should be drafted higher than the tier 1 catcher (Posey). The tiers should be viewed as comparing players within the position only. The general board sorts out where the players collate together as a whole.
- Players listed in the same tier have roughly interchangeable value. This does not necessarily mean that their values are identical; rather, if you miss on one player in the tier but select another, you should expect similar output. The player I feel has the most value in the tier will be placed first in that tier, and the rest to follow in descending order. But again, values within a tier are all very close.
- Try your best not to target any one specific player as a must have. Instead, let the draft come to you. This does not mean that you should not have a list of players that you hope to draft. Instead, guard against overreaching for a player. If you want Ben Zobrist on your team, that’s great – he’s a terrific player. Don’t spend a second round pick on him, however, just to make sure you get him. Draft him where reasonable, even if it’s a bit early, but if someone else significantly overspends, take advantage of that manager’s mistake and move on to the next player on your list.
Alright, now that we’ve got the tier system background sorted out, let’s dive into the rankings. I have placed in bold a handful of players that I think are sleepers based on where they are being drafted per the ADP charts. Also, keep in mind that the rankings are based on the standard 5 x 5 categories (avg., R, HR, RBI and steals for hitters and W, ERA, WHIP, Ks and SV for pitchers), so adjust accordingly if you have extra or different categories. For points league folks, take into account extra base hits (normally doubles and triples) that are not rewarded in most leagues, and pitchers who limit walks should get a bump in points leagues.
Finally, these rankings are for the 2013 season only and keeper value is not considered.
Catchers
Tier 1: Buster Posey
Tier 2: Joe Mauer, Matt Wieters, Yadier Molina, Carlos Santana, Victor Martinez
Tier 3: Salvador Perez, Mike Napoli, Miguel Montero, Wilin Rosario, Jesus Montero, AJ Pierzynski
Tier 4: Brian McCann, Alex Avila, Matt Lucroy, Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Doumit, JP Arencibia, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, AJ Ellis, Russell Martin
Tier 5: Kurt Suzuki, John Jaso, Yasmani Grandal, Travis d’Arnaud
Posey stands alone at the top level, with Molina, Mauer, Santana and V-Mart (make sure he has catcher eligibility in your league) comprising the next group. I love Posey as a player, but my recommendation is to wait until most catchers are off the board before selecting one in your draft. Why? Several reasons - catchers 1) get injured more than any other position players, 2) post less consistent offensive numbers from year to year than other position players, 3) play less games than other position players, among other reasons. Posey's monster second half last season was fueled in no small part by unsustainable BABIP numbers (and of course in no small part by his superior skills). Catchers’ performances have great variance from season to season though, so let other managers take the top catchers in the high rounds. There's value with later picks - how about Salvador Perez, Jesus Montero or even AJ Pierzynski in the later rounds? Each of these players has the potential to finish as a top 5 catcher. Alex Avila and (later in the season) Travis d'Arnaud could also provide excellent returns on investment. So let Posey and some of the other 'top' catchers go off the board, and invest a late round pick in one of these lower tier guys.
First Basemen
Tier 1: Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols
Tier 2: Buster Posey
Tier 3: Edwin Encarnacion, Billy Butler, Allen Craig, Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Goldschmitt, Joe Mauer
Tier 4: Ike Davis, Carlos Santana, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Eric Hosmer, Paul Konerko, Ryan Howard
Tier 5: Mark Teixeira, David Ortiz, Kendrys Morales, Adam LaRoche, Mike Napoli, Mark Trumbo, Nick Swisher, Adam Dunn, Chris Davis, Brandon Belt
Tier 6: Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis, Todd Frazier, Lance Berkman, Corey Hart
First base has a strong trio at the top with Votto, Fielder and Pujols (I do like Pujols third out of that group) and then a bit of a drop, but otherwise contains a significant amount of depth. Paul Goldschmidt is for real, and Ike Davis in the 4th tier, if he can avoid hay valley fever again, is likely to continue on his strong second half of 2012 and put up 30+ bombs. Look for Rizzo to put up strong numbers this season and for Hosmer to bounce back, although probably not quite back to the initial hype bestowed on him prior to last season. Also, Ryan Howard, while he can’t hit lefties, remains overlooked by managers and could be a steal in your draft. I would stay clear of Mark Teixeira – let someone else wait for his wrist to heal. If you are able to draft one of the top 3 guys, great, but if not, no worries, as first base runs as deep as any position.
One important point to note with the first base rankings is in relation to the catchers (Posey, Mauer and Santana) with eligibility there. The catchers land where they do on the first base tiers because they also have catcher eligibility. So in other words, if these players solely had first base eligibility, they would be ranked a bit lower among other first basemen than what is reflected above.
Second Basemen
Tier 1: Robinson Cano
Tier 2: Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler
Tier 3: Brandon Phillips, Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Jason Kipnis
Tier 4: Jose Altuve, Neil Walker
Tier 5: Howie Kendrick, Danny Espinosa, Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Dustin Ackley, Chase Utley
Tier 6: Jurickson Profar, Jedd Gyorko, Jemile Weeks, Marco Scutaro, Daniel Murphy
Tier 7: Omar Infante, Gordon Beckham, Kelly Johnson
Robby Cano stands atop the rankings here, and things take a bit of a dive after him. Pedroia and Kinsler occupy the next tier, and both are good players, but both also come with injury concerns. While second base lacks the depth of first base or outfield, you can find some good value picks later in the draft. Aaron Hill has shown that his power is not a fluke, and players such as Neil Walker and Howie Kendrick provide solid production at low sticker prices. One player to keep an eye on is Dustin Ackley - while he had a tough 2012 season, he was also dealing with injuries, and should rebound with another season of experience. Jurickson Profar and Jedd Gyorko, once in the majors and starting for good, will be moving up the board.
Third Basemen
Tier 1: Miguel Cabrera
Tier 2: Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez
Tier 3: Ryan Zimmerman, Chase Headley, Brett Lawrie, Pablo Sandoval, Martin Prado
Tier 4: Mike Moustakas, Manny Machado, Kyle Seager, David Freese, Pedro Alvarez, Will Middlebrooks
Tier 5: Todd Frazier, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez, Trevor Plouffe, Michael Young
Tier 6: Matt Carpenter, Jeff Keppinger, Matt Dominguez
Third base has medium depth, with its top player, Miguel Cabrera, a worthy choice for the first overall pick. The next level provides great quality as well, with Beltre, Longoria, Wright and Hanley Ramirez (his SS eligibility helps boost him up). Longoria is the risk-reward pick out of those four - if he can stay healthy all season, he'll post MVP level numbers. That's a big if, however. In the next tier you have Ryan Zimmerman, who has similar concerns to Longoria (albeit Zimmerman has not played in 150+ games since 2009). Expect Chase Headley to put up another strong season, but expect less HRs than last year. Martin Prado is a sneaky good fantasy player – quietly puts up strong numbers, even if not flashy. Also, no surprise if the second year guys (Moustakas, Middlebrooks, Machado and Seager) take a step up this season. Names to avoid include A-Rod, Michael Young and Kevin Youkilis. Instead, take a chance on one of the young guns.
Shortstops
Tier 1: Troy Tulowitzki
Tier 2: Hanley Ramirez, Starlin Castro, Jose Reyes
Tier 3: Ben Zobrist, Ian Desmond, Elvis Andrus, Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera
Tier 4: Erick Aybar, Danny Espinosa, Derek Jeter, Alcides Escobar, JJ Hardy, Andrelton Simmons
Tier 5: Josh Rutledge, Marco Scutaro, Alexis Ramirez, Everth Cabrera
Shortstop profiles similarly to second base with its lack of deep depth, but two differences should be noted: 1) At the very top, Tulo comes with significantly more injury risk than Cano, but 2) the upper depth (think 3rd Tier) runs deeper than that of second base. Tulo profiles in the same manner as Longoria in that if healthy, he’ll put up MVP numbers. His health track record remains suspect, however, so if you do draft Tulo (would not do so before the early 2nd round), I would make sure to draft a few safer players with your other top picks. Hanley leads the next tier, and I expect Starlin Castro to put up his best season yet. On the lower levels, I think Erick Aybar provides solid value and Andrelton Simmons could surprise some folks. If you don’t end up with a top shelf shortstop, you can still find some value in the Tier 4 group.
Outfielders
Tier 1: Mike Trout, Ryan Braun
Tier 2: Andrew McCutchen, Matt Kemp, Carlos Gonzalez
Tier 3: Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista, Bryce Harper
Tier 4: Jason Heyward, Adam Jones, Jay Bruce, Matt Holliday
Tier 5: Allen Craig, Yoenis Cespedes, Jacoby Ellsbury, BJ Upton, Ben Zobrist
Tier 6: Michael Bourn, Austin Jackson, Desmond Jennings, Shin-Soo Choo, Alex Gordon, Carlos Gomez, Melky Cabrera, Shane Victorino, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran
Tier 7: Curtis Granderson, Norichika Aoki, Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham, Adam Eaton, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, Will Myers, Angel Pagan, Torii Hunter, Jayson Werth, Brett Gardner, Michael Morse, Josh Reddick, Alejandro de Aza, Jason Kubel, Ben Revere, Nick Swisher, Denard Span
Tier 8: Dexter Fowler, Ichiro Suzuki, Nick Markakis, Michael Cuddyer, Colby Rasmus, Alfonso Soriano, Chris Young, Dayan Viciedo, Garrett Jones
Tier 9: Jon Jay, Emilio Benifacio, Drew Stubbs, Lorenzo Cain, David Murphy, Michael Brantley, Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin, Michael Saunders
Outfield runs deep this season, but that doesn’t mean that you should sleep on drafting the top players if available. Trout is my #1 overall player this season, and I would prefer Justin Upton over Josh Hamilton and Jose Bautista. And as also noted above, I expect Bryce Harper to have a phenomenal season – would not hesitate to take him in the late second/early third round. Curtis Granderson gets bumped to the top of Tier 7 with his injury, but he could be a bargain if you can afford to proceed the first six weeks without him. If so, don’t be afraid to draft him if you can get him in a decent spot. Will Myers would be higher on the list, but he’s not expected to be called up to the majors until June. Once up, he will provide immediate returns.
Starting Pitchers
Tier 1: Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw
Tier 2: Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, David Price
Tier 3: Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Cliff Lee, Yu Darvish, Jered Weaver, Adam Wainright, Madison Bumgarner, CC Sabathia, RA Dickey, Gio Gonzalez
Tier 4: Matt Latos, Zack Greinke, Matt Moore, Chris Sale, Kris Medlen, Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Jordan Zimmerman
Tier 5: James Shields, Brandon Morrow, Jon Lester, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Ian Kennedy, Brett Anderson, Josh Johnson, Jonathon Niese, Jeff Samardzija, Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Anibal Sanchez, Lance Lynn, Jeremy Hellickson, CJ Wilson, Matt Harvey
Tier 6: Wade Miley, Jarrod Parker, Homer Bailey, Derek Holland, Trevor Cahill, Mike Minor, Jaime Garcia, AJ Burnett, Edwin Jackson, Marco Estrada, Ryan Dempster, Tim Hudson, Matt Harrison, Josh Beckett, Alex Cobb, Brandon McCarthy
Tier 7: Brandon Beachy, Jason Vargas, Tommy Milone, Ryan Vogelsong, Hisashi Iwakuma, Wandy Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, Kyle Lohse, Ross Detwiler, James McDonald, Ivan Nova, Chris Tillman, Mark Buehrle, Andy Pettitte, Justin Masterson, Johan Santana, Shaun Marcum, Shelby Miller, Gavin Floyd, Paul Maholm, Wei-Yin Chen
So yes, starting pitching is quite deep this season. That being said, I recommend drafting at least one anchor starting pitcher (in this case, someone in the top 3 tiers). I would not go overboard drafting pitching early, with so many solid options being available in later rounds. The top 200 chart shows where to mix pitchers and hitters. In terms of ROI, Yu Darvish comes to mind in the top tiers, and a handful of folks highlighted in tiers 5 and 7 provide great value. You will have to wait for Beachy to return from Tommy John surgery, but he presents a low risk – moderately high reward possibility. The rankings explain themselves, but the takeaway here is that solid pitching can and will be found in the lower tiers and free agency as the season progresses, so keep that in mind. Also, pitchers are much more susceptible to injuries than hitters, so the performance risk for pitchers is higher. Hitters provide the safer bet to produce their expected numbers. One last thought here is to avoid Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum. The news with respect to both pitchers has been bleak - let another manager deal with their issues.
Relief Pitchers
Tier 1: Craig Kimbrel
Tier 2: Jonathan Papelbon, Jason Motte, Aroldis Chapman*
Tier 3: Rafael Soriano, Mariano Rivera, Fernando Rodney
Tier 4: JJ Putz, Joe Nathan, Sergio Romo, Addison Reed, Joe Hanrahan, John Axford, Jim Johnson, Tom Wilhelmsen
Tier 5: Huston Street, Grant Balfour, Greg Holland, Ryan Madson, Rafael Betancourt, Casey Janssen, Chris Perez, Jason Grilli
Tier 6: Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Bobby Parnell, Glen Perkins, Steve Cishek, Bruce Rondon, Carlos Marmol, Jose Veras
Tier 7: Jonathan Broxton, Ernesto Frieri, Kyuki Fujikawa, Tyler Clippard
Now we turn to the most combustible commodity in fantasy baseball, the relief pitchers. Why don’t the thirty closers all stand up? Now, ten of you please take a seat. OK, now another ten of you please take a seat. Those of you left standing, you will take the closer’s gig from day one and hold it through the end of the season. Those who sat down with the first group, you will lose your seat in the closer’s chair permanently within the first three months. The last group to sit will miss time due to injury. So you get the picture – chaos ensues every season with this group. So the old adage is in fact true – do not pay for saves. The best strategy is to draft no more than 1 closer from the first four tiers, and take fliers on some of the back end guys as the draft moves on. The best managers keep a close eye on the waiver wire and pounce once an incumbent closer is in trouble. Very hard to predict which guys will lose their stuff or get injured, but can be predicted with near certainty that a handful will face that fate. One name to keep an eye on towards the back end is Kyuki Fujikawa. Carlos Marmol will likely be shown the door by the Cubs soon, and Fujikawa will step in.
Conclusion
So there you have it – each position sorted out by tiers, which used together with the overall player rankings list, gives you all the tools you need to oversee a strong draft. For ease of reference, there are separate pages for the top 200 rankings and the tier rankings without the writeup, which you can print out for your draft. No two managers’ rankings will be alike, so make any adjustments to your list that you see fit, but hopefully we can agree that the tier system provides the best approach for your draft.
I would love to hear from you with any thoughts or questions. I’m brand new to Twitter and just created a page (@NeemaHodjat) a few days ago, so please follow me if you’re on Twitter. I’ll answer any questions received there, and it’ll be great to have dialogue as the season goes on. Otherwise, you can also email me at nhodjat@gmail.com. I’ll be in touch with articles during the season as well. A championship season starts with a strong draft, but in order to take it all the way, you need to be active on the wire and be ready to make trades as needed. As always, should be another fun season, and best of luck with your drafts.