There are two things certain in October:
The leaves will turn colors.
And the Atlanta Braves will be eliminated from the National League playoffs.
Playing the equivalent of a doubleheader yesterday in Houston, the Braves got knocked out in the first round for the fourth year in a row.
Most teams who lose annually in the playoffs are said to be building character, learning how to win.
The Braves seem to be learning how to lose.
At least this time, they spared their fans the agony of a Game 5 loss at Turner Field, their previous three ignominious exits.
Alas, they didn?t spare them much else, blowing a 6-1 lead on a game-tying home run with two outs in the 9th inning, then leaving a succession of men on base (including a bases-loaded, one out situation in the 14th inning) while being shut out for the last ten innings of an 18-inning, 7-6 defeat.
If you?re a Braves fan, you?ve got to be wondering if the team couldn?t use a year off from the post-season already. After 14 straight division titles, one World Series, and 13 playoff exits, it?s time for someone to figure out why this team consistently tanks in the month of October.
Because what they?ve done in the months leading up to October is more than just the standard of excellence by which all teams should be judged.
It?s a legacy of regular-season dominance unparalleled in the history of modern sports.
Except for 2005, a modest year by Braves standards (90-72), the Braves?from April to September - have shredded the competition with a consistency that may never be equaled.
Check it out: 2003, 101 wins. 2002, 101 wins. 1999, 103 wins. 1998, 106 wins.1997, 101 wins. 1993, 104 wins. That?s six years with triple-digit wins, and bupkus to show for it.
This is a team that doesn?t know the meaning of ?letdown?. This is a team that, every year, has quality pitching, a good (if not spectacular offense), managerial smarts, and a GM committed to winning.
So what goes wrong?
For one thing, it?s obvious that a team constructed to win for 162 games in the regular season isn?t necessarily the team that wins a short series. In a playoff series, one hot pitcher can make all the difference, and as dependable as the Braves pitchers have always been, they?ve been outgunned by the hot aces of other teams: Florida?s Livan Herandez and Kevin Brown in 1997, Arizona?s Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2001, Chicago?s Mark Prior and Kerry Wood in 2003.
This year, the Braves managed to beat future Hall of Famer Roger Clemens in Game 2, but couldn?t handle Andy Pettite and Roy Oswalt, and watched Clemens come back to pitch the final three innings of Game 4 to earn the victory. And while previous Braves standouts like Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and even Kevil Millwood were often brilliant during the regular season, they were often very hittable in the post-season. Witness Maddux?s 10-10, 3.22 ERA in 20 post-season starts, and Glavine?s 12-10, 3.58 record in 22 post-season starts.
For another thing, there?s timely hitting. The Braves won the World Series in 1995 on a home run by David Justice in Game 6, but since then, their memorable playoff hits are hard to recall, most of them coming in early playoff victories over the Astros (whom they beat seven consecutive times before the Astros broke the streak in 2004).
The Braves have also lacked that one charismatic, fiery star to lead them when the going gets tough. Their front-line pitchers were always cool craftsmen who won methodically. Star hitters like Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Brian Jordan, Andres Galaragga, Fred McGriff, Gary Sheffield, and Javy Lopez seemed to get bottled up in the post-season, and were not the emotional leader types that teams rally around.
Perhaps the Braves have created unrealistic expectations by consistently winning a division that offers few challengers. Since the Braves became part of the NL East after realignment in 1995, they?ve only once gone down to the last weekend of the season to clinch, fighting off the Phillies in 2001. Otherwise, the Braves have usually wrapped up the division by mid-late September, and have often fell victim to hungry wild-card teams (Giants, Cubs, Marlins, Astros) or first-time division winners (Padres, Diamondbacks) looking to make the most of a rare playoff appearance.
The Braves know they?re going to the playoffs every year, and while that?s comforting ? and a tribute to the skills of their organization ? it also breeds contentment, not only in the team, but for its fans. There were 10,000 empty seats for this year?s playoff opener at Turner Field, a clear sign that the fans are bored with success. Subconsciously, the Braves might be as well. They?re justifiably proud of their 14-year streak, but maybe winning 100+ games and coasting to a division title every year is leaving them too soft for the playoffs.
No doubt the Braves will recover from their latest galling setback, dust themselves off, and go back to the business of winning the NL East next year, which I think would be a mistake. What they really could use is some humility: an off-year, a year without playoffs, a year without fear of post-season failure.
Not going to happen, I know. See you next October.
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