The National League divisional races may be duller than the Pirates? offense, but the wild card race promises to be nothing short of, well? wild. As play ended on Labor Day, five teams were within 3 games of first. But because four of those teams come from the same division?the East--, the advantage has to go to the one team not in that division, the Houston Astros. While the Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins, Washington Nationals, and New York Mets batter each other throughout September, the Astros get to feast on sub-.500 Central clubs like the Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, and Pittsburgh Pirates. And while the East teams must also contend with series against the second-best team in the NL, the Atlanta Braves, the Astros have only two games remaining against division leader St. Louis. Certainly no team has come farther than the Astros, who were 15 games under .500 at the end of May. But just because the schedule says they should win, doesn?t mean they will, in an unpredictable year where no team seems to have the ability to pull away from the pack. Herein, a quick handicapping of the contenders: Why The Astros Will Win Because Roger Clemens (11-6, 1.57), Andy Pettitte, (14-9, 2.42) and Roy Oswalt (16-11, 2.91) form the best trio of starting pitchers in any league, on any continent. They?re deadly in a short series, and if they need help in the bullpen, Brad Lidge (32 saves, 2.25) is second only to Billy Wagner as the best of the wild-card closers. Their 46-24 home record is the best in the N.L. After they finish their current series against the Phillies, they only have one more series vs. a WC contender, 4 games at home vs. the Marlins. Otherwise, they have 7 games vs. the Cubs, 6 vs. the Brewers, and 4 vs. the Pirates. That smacking sound you hear is the sound of Astros fans licking their lips in glee. Why They Won?t Win They can?t hit. With the Killer B?s killing nothing but the offense, the Astros have struggled to score runs all year. Among the WC contenders, their .255 BA is higher only than the Nationals. The Astros have been shut out eight times, and while they perk up at Minute Maid, they?re positively anemic on the road, accounting for a 28-40 record. Why The Phillies Will Win: Because they have the best closer among the contenders in Billy Wagner (32 saves, 1.60, 9.44 K?s per 9 innings) a flamethrower who can get the big strikeout when he needs to. With Ugueth Urbina as Wagner?s 8th inning set-up man, that?s a pretty solid bullpen. 1B Pat Burrell (28/98/.283) has returned to All-Star caliber numbers, and forms a powerful trio with RF Bobby Abreu (22/86/2.94) and 2B Chase Utley (21/81/.287). Not to be overlooked: the Kenny Lofton factor; he?s made the post-season four straight years with four different teams (Indians, Giants, Cubs, Yankees). The Phils are coming off a 16-11 August, their best month of the year. Why They Won?t Win: Anyone check the ERAs of their starting pitchers? Brett Myers (12-7, 3.53) is the ace, with rookie Robinson Tejeda (4-3, 3.19) a pleasant surprise. But Jon Lieber, Corey Lidle, and Randy Wolf all have ERA?s well north of 4.5. The Phillies? team ERA is 4.24. Offensively, no one has rushed to fill the leadership void left by Jim Thome?s absence. Abreu?s home run totals are way down since winning the home run contest at the All-Star Game. Plus? they?re the Phillies, folks. This team has a strange history of bowing to September pressure, and the schedule does not favor them: 2 vs. the Astros, 7 vs. the Braves, 6 vs. the Marlins, 3 vs. the Mets, 2 vs. the Nationals. Why The Marlins Will Win: Because they?ve been there, and because they have the best balance of hitting and pitching among the contenders. Their trio of Dontrelle Willis (19-8, 2.55), Josh Beckett (12-8, 3.62), and A.J. Burnett (12-9, 3.23) may not be as frightening as the Astros?, but closer Todd Jones (34 saves, 1.17) has been unconscious of late, and combine that with a 2.71 team BA, and opportunistic, dangerous hitters like Carlos Delgado(27/97/2.91) and Miguel Cabrera (29/99/.327), and you have a smart, veteran team that still remembers their 2003 World Series victory. Why They Won?t Win They have the toughest schedule among the contenders: 6 games vs. the Braves, 6 vs. the Phillies, and 4 games at Houston. The bench is weak, Mike Lowell has yet to regain his 2004 stroke, and the bullpen, except for Jones, has been erratic and unreliable. The Marlins have underperformed all year, and have yet to put together a surge ? they only went 17-14 in August. Why The Nationals Will Win Because their Manager of the Year candidate, Frank Robinson, has them believing they can, and because the Nats can pitch. Livan Hernandez (15-6, 3.72), Esteban Loaiza (10-10, 3.62) and John Patterson (8-4, 2.44) have kept the Nats from sinking when everyone thought they would, after they lost their division lead in July and tumbled all the way to the cellar. They have a bona-fide closer in Chad Cordero (43 saves, 1.30). They play 14 of their final 24 games at home, where they are 40-27, and they even get 6 games against the Padres and Giants, who?ve been dominated all year by Eastern teams. Why They Won?t Win They have the worst offense amongst the contenders? no one has more than 71 RBI and only one player is hitting .300, (Jose Guillen, the same guy with the 71 RBI) and their pitching isn?t good enough to compensate, certainly not when compared to the Astros and Marlins. After soaring to a 52-36 record, the Nats have gone 20-30 since, losing many of the 1-0 and 2-1 games they were winning in April, May and June. And those 3 games vs. the Giants don?t look quite as tempting now that Barry Bonds may be in the lineup. Why The Mets Will Win Because they have the deepest rotation of any of the contenders, led by Pedro Martinez (13-6, 2.90) whose mere presence has transformed the Mets. Otherwise, Tom Glavine, (10-12, 4.00), Kris Benson, (9-6, 3.99) Jae Seo (7-1, 1.79), Victor Zambrano (7-11, 4.17) and the recently returned Steve Trachsel have jelled of late after early troubles. David Wright (21/86/.315) is steadily maturing into a power threat at third base, and Jose Reyes (40 stolen bases) is one of the most dynamic shortstops in the game. If the Mets can stay in the race until the season?s last series, they get to close out at home against Colorado. Why They Won?t Win: A power-challenged offense, a terrible bullpen, and an inability to capitalize should keep the Mets out of the post-season. The Mets have the least impressive closer in Braden Looper (28 saves, 3.27) and have gotten virtually no hitting from the right side of the infield. After a recent surge in which the Mets won 9 of 11, they?ve given most of it back, losing 7 of 9. With Carlos Beltran showing no signs of emerging from a season-long funk, Mike Piazza unable to regain his power, and the team in the midst of a grueling 10-game trip that?s finishing in Atlanta and St. Louis, look for the Mets to be playing spoiler in the final two weeks.