Michael Lewis? best selling Moneyball can be an unintentionally funny book. Honestly, who didn?t laugh out loud when Miguel Tejada said of Billy Beane, ?He say if I don?t walk enough, he gon? send me to Mexico??
Arguably, though, the funniest moment in the game-changing volume is within the earliest chapters, when Lewis describes the 2002 MLB Draft and Beane?s machinations therein. Surveying the room as the Oakland brain trust approach their first pick, Lewis writes: ?In a back area, a group of men --- which includes both the principal owner and the on-field manager of the franchise --- has no idea what is going on.?
The MLB Draft can be a tricky thing, yes. It?s the only non-televised draft of the major American sports. Top picks can take years to develop into something, or completely flame out. Average baseball fans (not seamheads) almost never remember when a specific player was drafted, unless it?s way too high or way too low (think Mike Piazza, who was in the 118th round, I believe).
Still, the Draft can be a productive way to add players for a struggling franchise. Looking at the first round and considering potential player movements, here are some ?05 draftees who might be on your radar screen within three to five years:
Justin Upton, SS, Diamondbacks: In any draft, you need to look at the No. 1 pick first. Upton, whose brother B.J. is in the D-Rays organization, can drive the ball to all fields because he has good plate coverage and swing extension. Scouts have likened him to Edgar Renteria, who was a major factor in the Red Sox run to the Series title last year. The Diamondbacks are certainly better this year than they were last year, and some of their key contributors are old (Luis G) and brittle (Troy G). Upton is a young, fresh five-tool player and should contribute for them in the near future. Interestingly, much is often made of drafts where a HS player goes first overall. Upton is straight out of HS in Virginia, but only 10 of the first 30 picks were high schoolers; 67 percent had some amount of collegiate experience, which could serve to make them more ?pro-ready.?
Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals: Although I don?t think Gordon has the highest immediate upside behind Upton, I figured I?d stay in sequential order. Gordon has long ball potential, as he?s showing right now in the College World Series qualifying rounds. He doesn?t doubt himself with the stick, which is a good quality to have when you?re en route to baseball purgatory in the Midwest. Honestly, though, Mark Teahen, the Royals? supposed 3B of the future, hasn?t panned out in the least, so Gordon will likely be manning the hot corner at Kauffman within three years. The key for Gordon will be maintaining his confidence. Kansas City has benefited from the addition of Buddy Bell, but lacks an overall vision and a payroll to compete with other clubs, which makes losing a pretty regular occurrence. The University of Nebraska product won?t be used to that, but if he can persist, he could team with a rejuvenated Ken Harvey and steadily-improving Angel Berroa as the backbone of a Royal Renaissance.
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals: I?m in love with this pick. The scouts? book on him says ?gap-type power.? The plans for DC?s new stadium are still in the works, mostly because an ownership group isn?t in place yet, but RFK is gap-crazy (fewest homers in the bigs have been hit there this year). Also, Vinny Castilla is playing well, but is extremely old. So, let?s say the following things happen: Nationals? brass realizes the team is well-suited to a RFK-style place, and designs a new ballpark similar to Petco; Castilla plays two more years; Zimmerman reaches the majors in 2007, tears up his rookie season in RFK?s final year, and becomes a star in the new park. It could happen, and there?s a high likelihood it will happen.
Wade Townsend, RHP, Devil Rays: This guy used to live in my girlfriend?s apartment complex down in Houston, and he?s a legitimate bulldog on the mound. The Devil Rays, despite Sweet Lou?s complaining, are quietly building a decent young team that could be contending in 2008-09. If Townsend actually plays (he was previously drafted by the Orioles) and develops, he and Scott Kazimir could be an amazing 1-2 punch in a few years down in Florida.
John Mayberry, RF, Rangers: Mayberry is my first-round sleeper of this draft. He went No. 19 overall to the Rangers out of Stanford, even though he was a former first-rounder out of high school (and he comes from a baseball pedigree). He makes excellent contact to all fields, and has above average bat control with a ?plus arm? from right. The most telling line in the scouting report is: ?ready to play now.? Texas is, for my money, the youngest and most exciting team in the majors. OK, they could use some more pitching help, but if you throw Mayberry into the lineup they?ve got within the next two seasons, he?s going to debut in grand style. It was surprising he slipped this far.
Craig Hansen, RHP, Red Sox: If you needed any more evidence that the Yankees might be downright cursed this season, check this out. Hansen, a 6-6 flame thrower from St. John?s University in New York, was available at No. 17, when the Yankees picked. Instead of grabbing the hometown product, they went with Carl Henry, a dependable high school SS out of Oklahoma. Henry might be good in the majors someday, but he?s going to sit behind either Jeter or A-Rod for the next 10 years in the Yankee organization. Hansen, meanwhile, throws a 93-94 MPH heater and a 85 MPH slider with good movement. Scouts say he ?throws strikes? and ?comes right at you.? In two years, he?ll be closing out games for the Sox instead of Keith Foulke (some say he?s better than current MLB closers). If the Yanks had nabbed him, it could have been a perfect apprenticeship for him, just like Rivera worked under Wetteland for the 1996 champs. Alas, not only do the Yankees lose out on a quality homegrown product, but they lose him to their biggest rival.
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