Andruw Jones and Miguel Cabrera were first introduced the baseball world as rookies playing in the World Series. Now they are two of the most feared sluggers in the entire game.
The Case for Jones
Andruw Jones had always been an elite player because he combined his once in a generation defensive abilities with an above average output at the plate, but in 2005 he finally lived up to his promise to be the next Willie Mays. In that season, he hit an MLB best 51 home runs, with a .922 OPS, career highs in both categories.
He has averaged 109 RBI?s per season since 2000 and his power numbers increased significantly when he widened his stance.
In 2006, he will be playing the final season of his contact with the Braves and he is a perfect candidate for a player who will put up a monster season by shifting into another gear with tens of millions of dollars at stake.
The Case against Jones
Jones will turn 30 this April, but like Kevin Garnett, he?s known as an old 30. This reputation is a bit unfair, as he has never played less than 153 games in a season, but he is known to have bad knees and intermittent back problems. Jones? role in the Atlanta offense has certainly changed, but his sudden drop in stolen bases since the 2000 season can be used as evidence of a decline.
Another criticism is that he is too laid back, particularly on defense. The defensive part of the game comes so easy to him that it is tough to fault him for lacking consistent intensity.
Finally, his .267 career average is well below other elite players, which keeps his OBP rather modest. Like Mays, Jones may eventually hit 660 homeruns, but Mays was a lifetime .302 hitter and that fact alone will continue to quickly end the comparison unless there is a sharp increase in that area of his game.
The Case for Cabrera
Miguel Cabrera helped lead the Marlins to a World Series title when he was just a rookie.
His numbers for his first three full seasons aren?t quite at the Albert Pujols level, but they are certainly close.
Cabrera
AVG.: .294, .323, .339
OPS: .879, .947, .998
HR: 33, 33, 26
RBI: 112, 116, 114
Pujols
AVG.: .328, .314, .359
OPS: 1.013, .955, 1.106
HR: 37, 34, 43
RBI: 130, 127, 124
Cabrera has vastly improved his plate discipline (strikeouts have gone from 148 in 2004 to 108 in 2006) and is now one of the most lethal hitters in the game when faced with an outside pitch. Whether or not he improves against the inside pitch will determine if he can reach the Pujols level for power numbers, which obviously dipped to 26 in 2006.
The Case against Cabrera
On the base paths and in the field, Cabrera is an average ballplayer at best. He does have a good arm, but it is counteracted by occasional glimpses of apathy.
At this stage in his career, he is most statistically similar to Hank Aaron, though Aaron eventually became a guy who would steal a few dozen bases each season, something Cabrera will not do. Aaron was also an excellent defensive right fielder and is one of the finest examples of overall consistency we have ever seen.






