The Detroit Tigers returned to the playoffs in 2006 for the first time since 1987. It was the first time they had even been above .500 since 1993 and pitching was the key to their success, namely Justin Verlander.
The Royals now have the longest postseason drought in the AL Central, as they have not played October baseball since they won the World Series in 1985. The Royals didn?t have a current major leaguer on their roster we thought was worthy of consideration, so we decided to reach to their farm system. Alex Gordon, Baseball America?s 2006 Minor League Player of the Year probably should have been the selection, but we decided to take a flier on Luke Hochevar, the number one selection in the 2006 draft.
The Case for Verlander
Justin Verlander?s first full season was good enough for him to win the 2006 Rookie of the Year, but it was those first 17 starts ahead of the All-Star game which made people believe that we were witnessing the arrival of one of the next great right-handed power pitchers. He had a WHIP of 1.17 over 110.2 innings and a record of 10-4 during that stretch.
As is the case with many rookie pitchers, the first experience with a heavy MLB workload takes it toll. His fellow candidates for the ROY, Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Papelbon, both had to be shutdown before the end of the season due to an elbow and shoulder problem respectively.
With the Tigers? postseason success, Verlander pitched well into late October and was able to still bring the great velocity of May and June though his results were mixed.
With a 6-5, 200 lbs frame and a high-nineties fastball with two effective off-speed pitches (curve and change), he is strikingly similar to Josh Beckett.
The Case against Verlander
Verlander is well ahead of the curve in terms of poise and the quality of his stuff, but he is also ahead of the curve in innings pitched. This is something that Dave Dombrowski and Jimmy Leyland will attempt to monitor, but it is tough to keep sight on the long-term in the middle of pennant races.
The sample size for his performance is of course small, but we still do not know where Verlander? ceiling will be. Will he become more precise with his location? Will he do a better job at keeping the ball down?
Will he become an Andy Benes? A second tier starter who, despite being an incredibly durable innings eater, could never get his ERA below 3.00 and achieve elite status.
The Case for Hochevar
Like Verlander, Hochevar is a 6-5, 200 pound hard-throwing right-handed pitcher who went to college for a few years instead of straight to a club?s farm system.
In four Class A starts in 2006, Hochevar posted an ERA of 1.17.
Hochevar is already well-known for his fearlessness on the mound. He features a high-nineties fastball which has a remarkable sinking movement. He also features an above average slider and curve ball, as well as a developing slider.
Hochevar, by all accounts, is a very likable guy in the clubhouse, which is too often a rarity amongst young high profile players.
His intelligence and mental toughness are reputedly impeccable.
"We feel like with this young man we have a guy who's going to be able to get here quickly," Kansas City director of scouting Deric Ladnier said. "We said from the start we were going to take the best pitcher that was available in the draft. We did not feel like there was a position player that would even remotely be in that category. When it was all said and done, we took the best pitcher."
The Case against Hochevar
Hochevar?s history in the draft is as clouded as a player like J.D. Drew. In 2002, the Dodgers selected him in the 39th round, but he elected to go to Tennessee. The Dodgers drafted him again in 2005, this time in the first round. With Scott Boras representing him, the negotiations were troublesome. He accepted a deal with the club for a day when Matt Sosnick was briefly his agent, but he backed out on the deal.
The Royals selected him first overall in the 2006 draft and came to terms on a four-yar deal worth $5.3 million in guaranteed money.
Hochevar believes the turmoil of the negotiations will help him.
"Your character gets questioned,? Hochevar told Baseball America. ?Your ability gets questioned. Your makeup gets questioned. That's tough," he said. "I'm not a guy who thinks the game owes him anything. I'm not a guy who thinks the game revolves around me, but it was tough to face.
?It helped me in the long run to be mentally tough. It's not so much that I want bad things to happen to me now. I don't. I'm not glad it happened, but I learned my greatest lesson from adversity. I grew from that."






