Major League Baseball's draft isn't nearly as compelling as the NBA's or NFL's, but this year baseball is taking steps towards making it a big-time draw.
The main reason baseball's draft will never equal that of it's counterparts is the fact that drafted players aren't locks to even sign with the club that drafts them. Aaron Crow, for instance, is projected as a top pick this season despite the fact that he was taken by the Nationals last year.
Even if a player does sign with the team that drafts him, it could be years and years before he makes it to the major league level. We start monitoring prospects early nowadays, but we don't have the attention span to wait a few years for a draft pick to turn into merely a member of a big league roster.
The other huge factor in the success of the annual basketball and football drafts is the popularity of the college sports. Sure, the NCAA's World Series is a sizable event, but it's not even in the same stratosphere as college football and the NCAA Tournament.
Regardless, the decisions that are made by each of baseball's 30 teams will help shape what MLB looks like over the next few years. It's extremely rare for a player to be drafted and appear in the majors in the same season, but the game's latest crop of young talent proves that the draft matters.
With the big event less than 24 hours away, here are some of the latest rumors and story lines dominating the headlines:
Keith Law of Scouts Inc. updated his mock draft on Monday night. He has Dustin Ackley (1B/CF, North Carolina), Donavan Tate (CF, Cartersville (Ga) High), Tony Sanchez (C, Boston College) and Zack Wheeler (RHP, East Paulding HS (Dallas, Ga) going after Stephen Strasburg (RHP, San Diego State).
One National League scout was very impressed with how North Carolina RHP Alex White pitched over the weekend, saying "White really showed me something that I hadn't seen a lot of. Long-term, I think he's right there with [Fort Worth Cats RHP] Aaron Crow and should go top 10. His slider was a little better today and he threw more strikes with his fastball -- he threw more fastballs in general, at least early. It wasn't a dominating, stellar performance, but it was good, and nice to see."
Jerry Crasnick writes that the MLB Draft has never seen someone like Strasburg. "Forget about Ben McDonald, Paul Wilson, Mark Prior, Kris Benson and other college pitchers who arrived with mounds of hype. There's no precedent for the frenzy surrounding Strasburg..."
Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has a slightly different crop of players going after Strasburg than Law. Mayo has Ackley, Tate, Crow and Wheeler going two through five, respectively.
The struggling Nationals, Mariners, Padres, Pirates and Orioles have the top-five picks, but who does ESPN.com and MLB.com think the current division leaders will select?
Division: Team (First-Round Pick): ESPN, MLB.com
AL East: Yankees (29th): Slade Heathcott (CF, Texas HS, Texarkana, Texas), Brett Jackson (OF, Cal-Berkeley)
AL Central: Tigers (9th): Jacob Turner (RHP, Westminster Christian Academy), Matthew Purke (LHP, Klein HS, Texas)
AL West: Rangers (14th): Reymond Fuentes (OF, Fernando Callejo HS, Manati, P.R.), Shelby Miller (RHP, Brownwood HS, Texas)
NL East: Phillies (No Pick)
NL Central: Brewers (26th): A.J. Pollack (CF, Notre Dame), Garrett Gould (RHP, Maize HS, Kansas)
NL West: Dodgers (No Pick)
Experts have called this year's draft class average, and one NL executive weighed in on it for ESPN: "It's not a bad class. But it's not one you want to stretch your budget for in terms of bonuses unless you're a club with money to spare. But those that aren't drafting high but have a pick in the right spot after the first 20 and maybe an extra pick, too, they're going to get two top-10 or -15 players, if they want to spend. This is what's wrong with the draft."
Brad Grant, the director of amateur scouting for the Indians, believes that MLB needs a "medical combine": "We're the only sport right now that doesn't have one. It's something that we feel we need. Especially, because right now the College World Series is going on. All these players have played; there's been recent injuries that you don't have time to assess ... If you have a medical combine, it would give you a lot more security in who you're taking. Especially with the amount of money we're spending."
The defending-champion Phillies are leaning towards taking a high schooler with the 75th overall pick. Because Philadelphia will have to wait for 74 selections to be made prior to their first pick, scouting director Marti Wolever isn't going to target a specific player. "I have absolutely no idea who's going to be there," Wolever told MLB.com. "More than likely, it's going to be a younger guy, probably a high school player. A lot of college kids go there, and the unfortunate part is if they're not winning and they're not producing, they don't play. Or pitchers go and they pitch too much ... I think the best way [to develop] is high school."
One long-time scouting director believes that the Nationals should really think twice about taking Strasburg first overall. "If I were the Nationals I'd think long and hard about taking him," the director told the Boston Globe. "I've seen the kid pitch and he's the real deal, but he's throwing against who he's throwing against. This idea of having him go eight to the majors could really set a poor example. It wouldn't be a great situation for all of their other young pitchers the Nationals have up there now who have to do their time in the minors. The Nats have no reason to rush this kid to the big leagues other than public relations, exciting the fans and putting people in the seats. Those are all the wrong reasons for doing it."
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: [email protected]
Andrew Perna writes on the MLB and NBA for RealGM.
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