RealGM Analysis
Tier 1: Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland
Tier 2: Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Mark Melancon, Trevor Rosenthal, Kenley Jensen, Koji Uehara, Cody Allen
Tier 3: Jonathan Papelbon, Glen Perkins, Drew Storen, Fernando Rodney, Steve Cishek, Sean Doolittle, Huston Street, Zach Britton
Tier 4: Addison Reed, Joe Nathan, Jake McGee, Joaquin Benoit, Francisco Rodriguez, Luke Gregerson, Santiago Casilla, Hector Rondon, Jenrry Mejia, Neftali Feliz, Andrew Miller
Tier 5: Ken Giles, Aaron Sanchez, Wade Davis, LaTroy Hawkins, Tyler Clippard, Brad Boxberger, Jeurys Familia
* Note: Players in bold are my picks to outperform their ADPs.
Without fail, closers are the most overdrafted position in fantasy baseball – every season. Why does this happen? Well, there’s only 30 closers at one time, and inevitably there will be a few closer “runs” in any draft caused by people panicking to avoid being left out.
Any time you’re in the midst of a closer run, note as follows:
1) at least one-third of the pitchers who start in the closer position for a team do not end in the role (due to injury, ineffectiveness, trades, etc.)
2) because of this, you’ll have the opportunity to pick up several closers throughout the season off the wire IF you pay attention
3) who gets injured or is ineffective is very hard to predict, so even the high end closers present significant risk.
So to be stated with emphasis, DON’T overdraft closers. The recommended strategy is to grab one established closer at a fair draft slot (ideally someone from tiers 2 or 3 – let someone else overpay for the tier 1 guys), and then add 1 or 2 additional guys from the tier 4 group, while keeping a close eye on the waiver wire.
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