RealGM Analysis
Baseball is a game of numbers, but sometimes they lie. The season is less than a month old, which lends itself to some crazy digits. The sample sizes are small and some of the statistics are huge. The average team has played just 12.3% of the schedule, which is the equivalent of less than two full NFL games and just 10 of the 82 contests on the NBA docket.
In short, things will change and players will revert to the mean. In some cases, that means they will rebound from a slow start, but in this piece we will focus on players that will undoubtedly regress as the season matures.
Chris Johnson, 3B, Braves
Filling the void left behind by Atlanta legend Chipper Jones, Johnson has done nothing but rake this season. He is hitting .397/.424/.556 through 17 games (63 at-bats), a batting average more than 100 points higher than his career mark (.282). He's killing waist-level pitches and has a .460 batting average on balls in play.
Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles
The 27-year-old has already slowed from his early home run pace, six in his first nine games and just one since, but it's his average and plate discipline that figure to decline the most. The slugger is hitting .382/.463/.794, significantly better than anything he's ever posted over a full season. He is averaging 0.59 walks per strikeout through 20 games, a rate nearly three times as high as he posted last season. Davis is seeing just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance, the lowest of his career. His strikeouts will soon loom over his walks.
Daniel Murphy, 2B, Mets
His .357 average isn't a complete aberration -- he hit .320 over 109 games in 2011 -- but significant regression is on the horizon. Like Johnson, when he puts balls in play they have found holes. He has a .377 BAbip, more than 50 points higher than his career mark of .325. His .571 slugging percentage will also drop. Murphy has the highest home run rate of his career and he's on pace to hit 63 doubles. Singles are much more likely.
Mark Ellis, 2B, Dodgers
It wasn't my intent, but I appear to be picking on infielders. The 35-year-old Ellis is hitting .348/.370/.470 for the Dodgers in 66 at-bats. Over 10 full seasons, Ellis has hit better than .300 just once (.316 in 2005) and for his career the second baseman is a .266/.331/.395 hitter. I'll lean on BAbip once again, a good indicator of hitting luck, as Ellis has a .396 mark. That number is exactly 100 points higher than it was last season with Colorado.
Justin Upton, LF, Braves
His batting average and on-base percentages aren't all that alarming compared to his career numbers, but Upton's power has been amazing. He leads all of baseball with 11 home runs (a historic figure through 20 games) and his slugging percentage (.813) is almost double what it was in his final season with the Diamondbacks. He is averaging just 6.8 at-bats per home run, an amazing rate. He has averaged 23 at-bats per homer in his 751 Major League games. At his current pace, Upton would hit close to 90 home runs. I think the Braves would be thrilled with 35 dingers.
John Buck, C, Mets
He has already started to cool off, but Buck was so hot over New York's first 10 games that his numbers still jump off the screen. The 32-year-old is hitting .277/.300/.631 with seven home runs and 22 RBI. He leads the National League in RBI and sits behind only Mike Napoli (25) for the overall lead. In his best Major League season, he hit .281/.314/.489 with 20 home runs and 66 RBI over 118 games with Toronto (2010). Buck isn't a bad hitter, but as he has shown over the last seven days (three hits in 19 at-bats), the hot start just couldn't last.
Shin-Soo Choo, CF, Reds
Choo has hit the ground running with the Reds, hitting .387/.535/.613 for his new club through 75 at-bats. The outfielder has never hit higher than .309 over the course of a full season and his walk-to-strikeout rate (0.82) is easily a career-high. He does have a history of good OBP numbers, but not a 53.5% rate. At this point in the season, almost half of the balls that come off his bat are finding space in the defense. He was a good addition to Cincinnati and he'll perform at an All-Star level, but his slash lines won't last.
Mike Napoli, 1B, Red Sox
We knew Napoli would hit well at Fenway Park -- he is hitting .282/.364/.564 at home and .256/.256/.535 on the road -- but it's his run-producing performance that has been exceptional. He leads all of baseball with 25 RBI in the heart of Boston's lineup. Napoli is hitting .188 with the bases empty, but .357 with runners on and in scoring position. He will continue to knock in runs, but such a difference between his hitting splits will not last. Over his career, 15% of the runners on base when Napoli comes to the plate have scored. Through 87 plate appearances this season, 26% of such runners are crossing home plate.
