Click here to return to the general 2010 MLB Season Preview. I was heavily into the Marlins heading into 2009 and was let down after their fast April start where it appeared as though they might deliver. The Marlins had a five-game lead in the NL East on April 19th, but surrendered it by May 9th. Behind excellent seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, plus enough scattered production from baseball's lowest payroll, the Marlins overachieved their way to an 87-75 record on a Pythagorean mark of 82-80. This was in no small part due to their 30-20 record in one-run games, a testament to skipper Fredi Gonzalez. 2009 Opsera Finish: 13th What Happened In The Winter The Marlins were given an edict by MLB to get their payroll up, an extremely rare move and Josh Johnson was a recipient of that cash influx with a four-year, $39M extension. Dan Uggla begins another season in Florida because of that as well, since the Marlins ultimately were unable to deal him away for another inexpensive arm that they desired. Jeremy Hermida was sacrificed in a cost-cutting trade, but he had become a spare part who had exhausted his upside. Larry Beinfest filled the spots vacated by the departures of Nick Johnson, Kiko Calero, Matt Lindstrom and others with an unexciting group of Minor League deals with the hopes at least a couple of them stick, most notably Mike MacDougal. The Marlins consistently prove to be the exception to the rule when it comes to competing on the most meager of budgets. The ease in which they bring in new talent, however, is a direct result of how willfully they unburden themselves of their homegrown guys as soon as they become cost prohibitive. If the Marlins ever become bigger spenders upon moving into their new digs, it will be interesting if they can simply build upon their formula with a little more cash for the temporary one-year rentals that this team desperately needs to properly compete in 2010. Marlins Offensive Preview The Marlins have one of the absolute three or four best players in the game in Hanley Ramirez, who will still be making just seven figures in 2010 and will always be their up the sleeve ace to potential trade since he's signed through 2014. He hit for an OPS of .954 in 2009, which beat his 2008 of .940 and 2007 of .948. He reduced his strikeout rate, but his walks also declined in his MVP runner-up season. The Marlins are enjoying a middle of his prime superstar, who will continue subtly upticking his production while even playing an improved defensive shortstop. In addition to Ramirez, Cameron Maybin and Chris Coughlan are a pair of high ceiling outfielders that will likely comprise the top of Florida's lineup for the next four or five seasons as they play out their 20s. Maybin was the 10th overall pick in 2005 and has been one of the biggest prospect names in the game ever since. He struggled early in 2009 when given a chance to play everyday and was eventually demoted back to the minors. He made substantial adjustments and came back in September as an .853 OPS hitter in 104 plate appearances while improving his strike zone. Coughlan isn't nearly as celebrated, but he was the 36th overall pick in 2006 and surprisingly finished 2009 with an .850 OPS, which included an excellent .390 OBP. Taking a quick look at BaseballReference's trust Play Index, I found that Coughlan ranks 11th all-time in OBP during a rookie season played at 25 or younger (1). We'll just need to see a little more in the power department from him in time, but he's a huge asset to this club at the plate, though he is presently a horrible defensive left fielder. Beyond that trio, Uggla and Jorge Cantu are the elder statesmen run producers from the right side of the plate. Uggla can reliably be expected to have 30+ homers and 150+ strikeouts, while Cantu has settled into a nice niche of an .800 OPS. Cantu's power numbers dipped while his OBP improved due to a decrease in his K rate; I'd expect his homer output to tilt back up towards the mid-20's again this season. Cody Ross is a little bit on the underrated side given how much he's moved around, though he still hasn't met a pitch he doesn't love and has just 111 walks in 1,653 career plate appearances. Nonetheless, he is a superior offensive player than Hermedia and is better defensively in right than in center. John Baker is a better than average offensive catcher and I think they have something potentially special in Gaby Sanchez at first. Defensively, the Marlins were a subpar group, though they should at least see a sizable improvement with Maybin in center and Ross shifted to right. Marlins Pitching Preview The Marlins pitching staff was at least a little better than advertised in 2009, with a Fielding Independent ERA that ranked them ninth in baseball. In Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, the Marlins have a front end that is capable of being one of the top four or five in all of baseball. They are each strikeout pitchers with biting stuff capable of neutralizing any lineup in baseball. Even though Johnson has proven himself to be the more reliable arm with a season and a half of consecutive strong baseball, Nolasco has the better K/9 rate and could rival him if he can merely reduce his propensity for yielding the long ball. Behind Johnson and Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez is the definite wild card. He has lethal stuff, but he is made out of glass and continues to have problematically walk and homer rates. Clay Hensley's sinker has been very impressive this Spring and he could fill in the back part of the rotation depending on what happens with Chris Volstad, Rick VandenHurk, Hayden Penn and Andrew Miller. Hensley bring some age to Florida's young staff and has proven capable as a starter and out of the bullpen, which is immensely valuable to their staff. Volstad is still young enough to figure it out, though he never really projected to be anything more than a middle of the rotation pitcher. Sean West, who some believed to be a rotation candidate, has already been optioned to Triple-A after a rough early Spring. Like most small budget teams, Florida has an impressive no name bullpen. Leo Nunez, who is a 'what you see is what you get' kind of guy, returns as Florida's closer. What Are Their 2010 Chances? Per the opener, I am a little 'once bitten, twice shy' when it comes to the Marlins. They are a fun underdog to follow and root for because of Hanley and the fact that either Johnson or Nolasco will start in 40% of their games. The lack of funds to improve the team in the short term, whether it is to sign a Rich Harden or Ben Sheets to stabilize the rotation, or even keeping Kiko Calero to have another reliable bullpen arm is what separates the Marlins from being an 85 win team to a 93 win team. The Marlins won't exactly shock anyone if they are in contention in September, but the Phillies and Braves are clearly playing with stacked hands. Nevertheless, the Marlins have the potential for a truly dangerous lineup and enough front end pitching to sneak into the postseason and be a team just as dangerous as the one that won the World Series in 2003. I see the only real missing ingredient as being the veteran presence of Ivan Rodriguez, something I think Beinfest is capable of finding in-season and Jeffrey Loria would be willing to endorse. With the power trio of Hanley, Johnson and Nolasco (2), the Marlins are capable of winning a third World Series in Joe Robbie/Pro Player/Land Shark/ before moving into the new stadium in 2012 when they become known as the Miami Marlins. Note 1.) In case you were unaware, Ted Williams ranks first with a rookie season OBP of .436. 2.) If the MLB were a superstar-driven league, the Marlins would be in excellent shape with that trio. Starting a franchise from scratch, there are few players (maybe just one in Albert Pujols) who would be selected ahead of Ramirez, while Johnson and Nolasco are each top-15 young arms. Click here to follow Chris Reina's Twitter feed. Click here to return to the general 2010 MLB Season Preview.