My VCR is all set-up and primed to go, whirring in anticipation of a month's worth of full-time employment with overtime. My couch is plush and inviting, the beers in the fridge chilled and aching to flip their lids. And my list for reasons to call in sick to work has now reached its third page, with unintentional ingestion of steroids at Reason # 87. Yes, it's playoff time --October, the finest sporting month of the year-- and as always it's gonna be a great one. I don't know if a come-back-from-being-down 3 games to none series is a reasonable demand of this year's baseball postseason. I don't know if we will get to see that again in our lifetimes. But I think you, and I, and every member of this grand old club of ours, has every right to expect some more sizzling bats, late-inning blasts, and socks that may be white, red --who knows, even a little bloody when all is said and done. And if we're lucky we might see Jeter dive into the stands, or a baserunner might knock a ball out of a fielder's hand again. You can count on Ozzie Guillen getting tossed from a game or six. I don't really care. All I know is I have absolutely no idea who's going to be there in the end. Well, not exactly. There's one series to which I think we all know the result. To say the St. Louis -- San Diego mismatch is a foregone conclusion is like saying there's an 80% chance of sunrise tomorrow morning. I'm sorry Padres fans, but this one's in the books, and that's that. But the rest of the matchups leave me more than a little unclear; there's no telling which way the rawhide pendulum will swing. I can think of any number of ways the games could/ should go --how I would like them to play out-- in the interest of "what's good for baseball". What's good for baseball in the minds of execs at MLB, ESPN and FOX is pretty straightforward: Yankees vs. Red Sox in the ALCS, a ratings orgy the likes of which they all savored last year in that jaw-dropping head-to-head. But as loyal fans, and addicted readers, of my baseball columns these past four months, you must be begging me to give you my expert picks for the Divisional Series and beyond. What do you really think, Tom? So I'll give it a shot...for the fans. AMERICAN LEAGUE Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox: OK, I admit it: Game 1 is already five innings old, and the Southsiders have a healthy 8 - 2 lead over the Red Sox as I write this. But you're going to have to trust me when I say I was already following a hunch the reigning champs would be ousted in the first round by Chicago. Why? I know... The Red Sox have proved they can come back from the most insurmountable of deficits. They have the experience, the toughness, and not one, but two well-deserving MVP candidates hitting back-to-back in the middle of a line-up that knows how to score runs in the crunch, and often. And the White Sox, despite their blistering first 2/3 of the season, spent the last 1/3 trying to fight off a seemingly terminal case of Mediocrititis. They lost team spark plug Scott Podsednik for a stretch, and aces Buehrle and Garland were not winning games period. As the season neared its end, and as Cleveland closed to within 1 1/2 games of the division leaders, we all started to talk of a big-time choke scenario. Guess what: it didn't happen. This game is all about momentum, and the White Sox swung it their way just in time by proudly sweeping the Tribe straight to their respective living rooms for October. They have the moxy again, symbolically fueled by their manager's fevered complaints to the media for counting them out as underdogs. They won 99 games, Ozzie reminded us all. Look for Chicago's big starters (now including red-hot Jose Contreras) not to quiet Boston's Bop, but at least to stifle it enough. And expect the White Sox hitters to be the ones small-balling it around the bases against a Boston pitching staff low on aces and high on unreliability. The Red Sox can win games with their bats, we know. And they will in this series too. But this time, it'll be too big a hill to climb even for them. My Pick: White Sox in 4 New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (of California, part of the United States of America... you get it...): For me, this one's almost as big a question mark: the Angels, with one of the best pitching staffs around, great defense, Vladimir Guerrero, and arguably the game's smartest manager, surged to the finish line on an extended hot streak that almost erased the big patches of inconsistency they suffered through during the season. They are on point right now. And the Yankees, well, what can I say. As a fan of the (gulp) Orioles, I hate seeing the pinstripes here. Man was I pulling for Boston and Cleveland in the end. But I was no dummy. I saw what New York was doing. They reversed one of their poorest starts to the season in a big way, working for months to find a semblance of even an acceptable starting rotation. But toward the finish they were playing like a team that would not be stopped. And they weren't. They dominated their way to the top of the AL East, and expect them to do it again here. But it won't be easy. I like the Angels organization. Something about them I feel says "class act". But this is not their year to advance. Not against these Bronx Bombers. The inconsistent, sometimes ailing Angels line-up will make better pitchers out of the Yanks starters, who, led by Small, Chacon and Randy have already been putting together an impressive string of starts. Mussina is an unanswereable question right now, as are the Yanks' set-up men. But as good as LA's Colon, Lackey and Co. are at getting fellas out, there are just way too many outstanding bats in the other guys' dugout to be dismissed. My Pick: Yankees in 4 NATIONAL LEAGUE San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: That's right. Wipe those tears of laughter from your eyes. I'll give you a moment.... All better? No, seriously, folks: this one's in the bag, and that's that. The Padres have one of the least impressive line-ups for ateam with a (barely) winning record, ranking anywhere from 11th to 13th in the NL in offensive categories. And they're rotation is lightly strung together with Jake Peavy and some other guys. In fact, despite the heart I'm sure this squad possesses ( and taking into account that on any given day any team can win in the Majors), the Padres are going to actually NEED Peavy to give two lights-out perormances in this series if they want to fabricate a 2005 postseason future. And after today's pasting at the hands of St. Louis, unless Jakie goes on 2 days' rest, he won't be getting another shot. St. Louis won 100 games, and for good reason. They even have a lighter version of the line-up they sported last year, but won games by a lot, a little, early and late. Against bad teams, and very good teams. Shows over. Next. My Pick: Cardinals in 3 Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves: OK, I left this one till last for good reason. As I type this sentence I have no idea who will prevail in this evenly matched series. Let me go smoke a cigarette, and stop being wishy-washy. OK (exhale), now I've got it...I think. I'll weave my way around to it. Let's break down the cold, hard facts: Houston and Atlanta boast two of the strongest pitching staffs in the postseason, with the Astros most clearly with the edge. There's just no way around that one. Despite Clemens' recent stumbles and leg injury, he and Oswalt and Pettitte are beasts on the mound, the last two guys especially since the half-way mark of the season. And Brad Lidge is a closer the Braves sure wish they had. So it's Houston right? Not necessarily. The Braves have rookies on their team, to be sure, ones unused to playing on this big a stage. But they also are possibly immune to the mini-curse of the Braves winning 1 World Series during their epic 14-year Division Winning Run. These guys (Giles, Furcal, etc... know how to hit smart, and when they get on, Andruw Chipper and the rest have shown they know what to do next. Plus, any series starting with Tim Hudson and John Smoltz should be an absolute dogfight. Factor in Houston's at-times weak offense, and the arrow points Atlanta's way right. No. Ensberg and Biggio and Berkman are all on fire right now, and the smallest of leads is all Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt will need to fight out the closest series victory of the first round. My Pick: Astros in 5 Well, there you have it. I have been avoiding this article; I didn't know how to make head or tail of the postseason as we know it. Actually, it's almost always like that. For many of these teams it will be about how well their pitching performs; for many others it will be about if their bats will rise to the challenge. And for San Diego it will be about taking at least a few snapshots before they are back in the First-Class departure lounge. These are of the Best-Of-Five Variety, which can be over in a heartbeat, going the direction of the team that comes up with the early, game-shifting hits. Throw in a four-hitter by one of the starters from any team, for example, or an early six-run inning, or maybe a Jeter diving in the third-base stands and you've got a team up 2 - 0 just like that --in some cases maybe heading home for 2 chances at closing it out. Anything can happen. These first impressions define these short series, and they will do it again this year. That's why I don't REALLY know what's going to happen. Nor do I really care. I just want to see some good baseball.