In the wake of the devastating injury incurred by Buster Posey, the reigning National League Rookie of the Year, it brought to the forefront of my thoughts the idea of whether or not there is a more important player to his team than Posey to the Giants. He has all of the ingredients necessary for this designation, the first being that he plays a position that is normally devoid of any offensive prowess. The second is a more relative comparison, in that his team is an incredibly unbalanced group, with respect to scoring runs versus preventing them, whose offense takes an extreme hit when you compare Posey to his replacement, Eli Whiteside. Lastly, and definitely the most incalculable of reasons, is the mental blow the loss of a player of Posey’s caliber deals to a team’s psyche.
There are a total of 13 teams that currently hold a record above .500 and, thus, have a realistic shot at making the playoffs as of today. If you’ve never checked out the playoff odds report over at Baseball Prospectus, it is an interesting combination of where teams currently place in the standings and their expected win percentage. The result is the odds that a particular team will make the playoffs. For example, despite the fact that the Cleveland Indians currently have a 6.5 game lead, by far the biggest advantage in baseball, over the Detroit Tigers, their expected win percentage drags their playoff odds down to 40.0%.
What I want to examine is the players on these teams whose injury would deal the biggest blow to a team’s chances. I fear that Buster Posey might have headed this list before his season all but ended after being bowled over by Scott Cousins of the Marlins in what was, by the way, a perfectly legal hit in this writer’s opinion. So, we will leave the Giants out of this discussion in deference to the crushing blow that left them without their catcher, cleanup hitter and leader for what will likely be the remainder of the 2011 season. For what it’s worth, I hope that all of the players listed below are the pinnacle of health over the course of the next four months and beyond.
In alphabetical order by team, below is who we will call the Indisposables:
Arizona Diamondbacks – SS Stephen Drew
Perhaps one of the most underrated players in the game today, Drew is yet again showing the rest of the National League why he is one of the better two-way players in all of baseball. It cannot be stressed enough how valuable a player is to his team when he plays average or better defense at a premium position as well as bat cleanup for a team that possesses more pop in their lineup than any other NL team, according to fangraph.com’s isolated power statistic (ISO). Ten years ago, this may have been more commonplace given the offensive numbers of the era, but outside of Denver, the list of shortstops more valuable to their team is a short one and Drew’s name is likely at the top.
Atlanta Braves – C Brian McCann
We have known for a long time that McCann is a significant piece of the puzzle in Atlanta, yet an argument can be made that his contribution is still underrated by the general viewing public. One of the most consistent players in the game from season to season, he has produced 4.0+ WAR for three straight seasons. Another middle of the order bat at a typically weak offensive position, the loss of McCann would be a huge blow to Braves’ playoff chances. Also, while hard to quantify, it can’t be ignored the effect that losing McCann would have on a pitching staff that currently ranks third in the NL in ERA.
Boston Red Sox – 3B Kevin Youkilis
In years past, Youkilis may not have made this list given that he played first base. This year, however, with the acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez, Youkilis was forced into the rigors of fielding the hot corner day in and day out. As a third baseman, he is tops in the majors with respect to OPS at his position, at .919, while that figure would only be good for fifth on the first baseman list. His positional flexibility allowed the Red Sox to go out and upgrade their offense long term and increase the overall value that both positions contribute to the ballclub’s success.
Cincinnati Reds – 1B Joey Votto
Votto is the first player on this list that plays one of the least demanding defensive positions on the diamond. The idea being presented is that truly elite hitters are so scarce that regardless of their position, they are more irreplaceable than any of their teammates. I did consider inserting right fielder Jay Bruce’s name in place of the reigning NL MVP, but determined that their positions are both on the “easier” end of the spectrum and, therefore, Votto’s offensive dominance swung the scales in his direction.
Cleveland Indians – SS Asdrubal Cabrera
If this list was compiled prior to the season, Cabrera’s name would be so far away from it that he would need a telescope to even see the paper it was written on. Like many of the Indians, Cabrera has come out of nowhere to firmly plant himself squarely in the middle of an early season MVP discussion. He is currently leading all major league shortstops with a .537 slugging percentage, outpacing his career figure by .143 points. So, while his production might not last, Cabrera is young enough to be breaking out. If he does keep it up, he might very well propel his team to an unlikely playoff berth.
Florida Marlins – RF Mike Stanton
This Marlins team was a tough one to determine, given the similar production that their team leaders are currently producing. In any of the last five years, it would have been the easiest decision to make with Hanley Ramirez producing MVP-like numbers from the shortstop position. This season, however, it is the trio of Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and Stanton (all of whom play non-premium defensive position) that have carried the Florida offense thus far. The reason I chose Stanton is two-fold, in that he is universally regarded as having the highest ceiling of the three players considered and also has been hotter than the sun as of late. After a somewhat sluggish start that included a minor leg injury, Stanton has hit six home runs and produced a 1.150 OPS over his last 15 games.
Milwaukee Brewers – LF Ryan Braun
Braun has established himself as one of the premier offensive talents in the NL since he arrived in Milwaukee in 2007. While he is regarded as a well below average fielder, his powerful bat more than makes up for his defensive inefficiencies. Remove Braun from the Brewer lineup and it likely goes from a top tier offense to mediocre or worse. That’s understandable given the fact that since 2007, he ranks third in the NL in slugging percentage, fifth in home runs, fifth in batting average and third in total hits. Those are the numbers of an impact bat and someone that, if lost to injury, would leave Milwaukee fans longing for his presence in the lineup.
New York Yankees – CF Curtis Granderson
Everyone knew that Granderson had above average power for a center fielder, but the prodigious rate at which he is swatting homers these days has brought his game to another level. In his career prior to 2011, he was used to hitting a home run once every 24.2 at bats, while this season he has cut that number in half, down to once every 11.9 at bats. This is reflected in his major league fourth best slugging percentage of .616. When you combine the fact that Granderson plays an adept center field and is currently one of the most productive bats in the majors at the moment, he becomes an indispensable asset.
Philadelphia Phillies – CF Shane Victorino
While most people might have gone with second baseman Chase Utley in this spot, that notion is somewhat debunked when you realize that the Phillies played without Utley until May 23 and were ten games over .500. The lone productive bat remaining in the Philadelphia outfield after the departure of Jayson Werth to free agency riches, Victorino continues to track down balls in center field in addition to being the all-around threat that he has become on offense. His .846 OPS ranks second among NL center fielders thanks in large part to a robust .503 slugging percentage. The Phillies lineup has been relatively punchless compared to years past and without Victorino, it surely would be faring much worse.
St. Louis Cardinals – CF Colby Rasmus
Right behind Victorino on the center fielder OPS leaderboard is Cardinals’ youngster, Colby Rasmus. Unlike his Phillie counterpart, however, Rasmus is on the upswing of his career and there are those who feel like he is well on his way to being the premier two way center fielder in the NL. He has done nothing to contradict his believers in 2011, having significantly cut down his strikeouts and improved his walk rate over his 2010 season. He is certainly capable of more power than he has displayed lately, but consistency is a difficult standard to maintain at the major league level at the tender age of 24. Nevertheless, I would venture to guess that Rasmus is a player that any general manager would love to have on his roster.
Tampa Bay Rays – 3B Evan Longoria
If you were to build a prototypical third baseman, it is likely that the final product would not differ much from the standard that Longoria has set since his arrival in 2008. While Longoria’s production indeed stands out on offense, it is his defense that is truly extraordinary. In fact, according to UZR/150, Longoria is the second best fielder in all of baseball, regardless of position, since 2008. In the same time period, he is also third in OPS among players who called the hot corner home. There may not be another player who can more aptly be called the entire package than Longoria. He has yet to catch fire in 2011, but based on his history he will heat up sooner or later and the Rays will need him if they plan on keeping pace with the Yankees and Red Sox in the cutthroat AL East.
Texas Rangers – OF Josh Hamilton
Hamilton inherently provides an excellent example of what he means to his team, as he has already missed significant time this season due to injury. With him, his Rangers are 12-4, but without him they are a meek 15-21. Hamilton’s offensive contributions are well-chronicled, having won the AL MVP last season and leading his team to a World Series berth. There is no doubt that they are a different team when he is fully healthy and his imposing bat is terrorizing opposing pitchers. Hamilton can certainly handle center field, which increases his value tremendously, but the Rangers organization has decided that, in order to keep him on the field, his primary position will be left field. If that is what they must do to keep his time on the disabled list to a minimum, then so be it. When healthy, Hamilton might be the best hitter on the planet and that is exponentially valuable regardless of what position you patrol on the defensive side of the ball.
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