By Carl Setterlund
Overview: The position of catcher is one of the hardest in fantasy baseball to get a read on. It?s hard to know whether it?s worth it to obtain one of the few who actually produce. On the flip side, it could waste a chance at a top position player or pitcher to get just average production. There is always this debate when deciding how to draft guys at premium positions. I?m not here to tell you whether to take Joe Mauer or Mariano Rivera, but to help you assess the talent for yourself, because ultimately the decisions on drafting lay in your hands and not mine. Without further ado, the 2006 fantasy catcher rankings?.
1. Victor Martinez ? Age: 27 ? 2005 Stats: 73 Rs/20 HRs/80 RBIs/0 SBs/.304 AVG
On almost every list Martinez is the uncontested choice as the best fantasy catcher in the business. Still quite young (making him a good pick in keeper leagues as well), Martinez hits in the heart of a potent Cleveland lineup and is really the only dependable power option at this position. V-Mart?s stats do not tell the complete story from last season. He slumped in April and May hitting just .210 with virtually no power numbers. Yet from then on he went for a .344 AVG, 59 runs, 16 HRs and 65 RBIs. I don?t think he can hold that type of average for an entire season, but I project Martinez to end up putting up 80 runs, 25 HRs, 100 RBIs and a .315 AVG, which is certainly more than you can expect from any other catcher out there.
2. Joe Mauer ? Age: 22 ? 2005 Stats: 61 Rs/9 HRs/55 RBIs/13 SBs/.294 AVG
Mauer was tough to put here, but I think last year was more of an adjustment year than anything else. The only stat he posted that I think is a true reflection on him is the 13 stolen bases, which is stellar for a catcher. You can probably boost his average 10 more points next year, as well as adding 10 more runs and RBIs. His power should increase, but I don?t see his home run totals going much higher than 15 for this year at least. Also because of his age, Mauer makes for an exceptional choice in keeper leagues. You must also be warned though, he is a slight injury risk.
3. Jason Varitek ? Age: 33 ? 2005 Stats: 70 Rs/22 HRs/70 RBIs/2 SBs/.281 AVG
I don?t mean to be boring, but Varitek is the current standard of consistency when it comes to catchers. Seeing that he is so consistent, I?m expecting Varitek to repeat almost exactly what he did last year for the Sox. If anything I?d add up to 5 RBIs and 3 more stolen bases to his totals this year. Taking Varitek in your draft is the safe pick among this bunch, which could be a smart move.
4. Javy Lopez ? Age: 35 ? 2005 Stats: 47 Rs/15 HRs/49 RBIs/0 SBs/.278 AVG
The Orioles were not willing to trust Javy Lopez? old knees at catcher for another year so while he will still have catcher eligibility, Lopez will mostly DH and play 1B, meaning his injury risk is less than it would be for a normal 35 year old catcher. Lopez got hurt and missed much of last year, but it?s clear he is on his way out of his prime. I wouldn?t say that it?s farfetched to believe Lopez has a good rebound year, but frankly I don?t see it. I?ll give him a safe .290 AVG, 20 HRs, 80 RBIs and 75 SBs, however I?m not willing to put as much trust in him as I would a guy like Varitek.
5. Ramon Hernandez ? Age: 29 ? 2005 Stats: 36 Rs/12 HRs/58 RBIs/1 SB/.290 AVG
I have Hernandez as my sleeper this year. He?s making the move from imposing Petco Park to the more offensively friendly Camden Yards, and I think that move alone adds 10 HRs to Hernandez? total. Ramon should be able to maintain close to his .290 average this year. Actually, looking at his history, I think the safest guess for Hernandez this year is that he duplicates his 2003 Oakland numbers. He produced as follows 70 Rs / 21 HRs/ 78 RBIs / .273 AVG. Ramon is one of the few good catchers out there that are on the younger side of 30, and while he does not compare to Javy Lopez in his prime, Hernandez should produce close to the same as his aging teammate.
6. Kenji Johjima ? Age: 29 ? 2005 Stats: 70 Rs/24 HRs/57 RBIs/3 SBs/.309 AVG
Kenji Johjima is the latest of the highly touted Japanese players who have made the switch to the American game. His 2005 stats are from the Japanese league he played in so I don?t necessarily expect him to duplicate that this year in the superior competition of the MLB. At the same time I think he has more Hideki Matsui in him than he has Kaz Matsui. Johjima should meet a decent amount of success and the Japanese presence in Seattle (along with playing next to Ichiro) should make the transition easier on him. Playing in Safeco, I don?t project anything more than 18 HRs and 70 RBIs, but that is good production for a catcher. Also, Johjima should be one of only 3 or 4 catchers to bat .300 so keep him on your radar in the middle rounds.
7. Ivan Rodriguez ? Age: 34 ? 2005 Stats: 71 Rs/14 HRs/50 RBIs/7 SBs/.279 AVG
While he is admittedly on the fast track to becoming a HOFer, ?Pudge? is also in full decline. Since leaving the Rangers, Rodriguez has been hitting in pitchers? parks and has not been able to reach 20 home runs. At age 34, his numbers along with his effort seem to be stuck in a downward spiral. While I?m expecting a bump from the 50 RBIs of last season, and while he is still a useful catcher to have on your team, you should not anticipate seeing the Ivan Rodriguez of old this year.
8. Jorge Posada ? Age: 34 ? 2005 Stats: 67 Rs/19 HRs/71 RBIs/1 SB/.262 AVG
Much like Rodriguez, Posada is also towards the end of his prime years. Over the past three seasons Posada?s batting average has gone from .281 to .272 to .262 which is not a trend Yankees fans should be interested in seeing. Like with Pudge, it?s important to remember that this is not the Jorge Posada of old that we?re looking at here. If Posada could get his average back up to above .270 he would move up a couple spots, but as it stands he is not much of a help in that category. And also, at his age his bat speed is starting to decrease and while he won?t drop 10 more points, he probably won?t hit over .265 for you. He still has more pop than most other catchers and by no means is it a bad move to have drafted Posada as your catcher.
9. Michael Barrett ? Age: 29 ? 2005 Stats: 48 Rs/16 HRs/61 RBIs/0 SB/.276 AVG
For the past couple years Barrett has been the kind of guy that sits there in the free agent pool, despite the fact that he puts up numbers at a premium position. Well I say it?s time to give Michael Barrett some love and it seems like others are starting to agree with me. While his run total is nothing to look at, the 16 home runs, 60+ RBIs and .280 batting average are all good production from a catcher. For the past two years I?ve had Barrett in my rotation as my backup catcher but I fear those days have ended. He probably won?t sneak past every manager in your league again this year, and as a late round pickup he would be a serviceable option at catcher.
10. AJ Pierzynski ? Age: 29 ? 2005 Stats: 61 Rs/18 HRs/56 RBIs/0 SB/.257 AVG
As a .287 career hitter, last year?s batting average was by far a career low for Pierzynski. He has found a comfort zone in Chicago and I predict that he will perform on adrenaline from last year?s incredible playoffs. Hitting at Cellular Field is a luxury that will allow Pierzynski to repeat last year?s power statistics, while at the seem time he should see his batting average jump a whole ten points. Despite being consistently productive his entire career it seems like Pierzynski suffers from Michael Barrett syndrome. If you?re lucky he could be a waiver wire pickup and turn into quite a good backup catcher.
11. Rod Barajas
12. Jason Kendall
13. Bengie Molina
14. Paul Lo Duca
15. Brian McCann
16. Mike Lieberthal
17. Ryan Doumit
18. Johnny Estrada
19. Josh Willingham
20. Mike Piazza
Keepers and Sleepers:
Sleeper Material: My biggest sleeper is Ramon Hernandez who few people seem to be taking seriously. I personally have him on two of my teams already. The Orioles didn?t give him $7 million a year for nothing, and there?s a reason he was favored over Bengie Molina. I also like Paul Lo Duca in deeper leagues. He was far from spectacular last year, but he was also playing in the worst hitters? park in the league. He?s moving to a better location and into a far more potent lineup. People should also keep an eye on Jason Kendall. He is never going to be a factor with power numbers, but he is also far from being a .271 hitter, his average should jump back up into the .290s this year.
Keeper Material: Coincidentally, the two best catchers (Martinez and Mauer) are also the only two on the top 10 who haven?t yet entered their prime. I?m someone who?s not high on Dioner Navarro?s long term future with the Dodgers because he has top prospect Russell Martin breathing down his neck. Atlanta catcher Brian McCann is also being pressured by a top prospect (Jarrod Saltalamacchia) but the 22-year-old is so good that there will undoubtedly be a place for him even if it?s not in Atlanta past 2007.
Again the battle rages on for you fantasy baseball fiends. I personally find drafting a catcher one of the hardest things to decide on and I know so many of you feel the same as well. Remember what you?re looking for when you?re drafting, whether it is Joe Mauer?s high ceiling or Jason Varitek?s consistency. Choose wisely friends, and follow your strategy to the end. I wish you all a very merry drafting season.



