Padres left-hander Shawn Estes said Monday he is "98 percent" certain he's going to have reconstructive surgery on his pitching elbow next week. Estes strained his left elbow during his Padres' debut on April 5 and was put on the disabled list two days later. Estes said Monday that he plans to get a third opinion, then likely have Tommy John surgery next week. He got a second opinion last week from Dr. Lewis Yocum. "The decision came down to this -- do I want to continue pitching beyond the season," Estes said. "The consensus with me and my family was, yeah, I do. I absolutely do."