Wow! What a wild off-season we just witnessed in Major League Baseball. The Florida Marlins were completely dismantled, the Blue Jays went on a shopping spree, The New York Mets added Billy Wagner and Carlos Delgado, Johnny Damon donned pinstripes, and Theo Epstein resigned and returned to the Boston Red Sox as the General Manager. Bonds is back and the Black Sox curse is no more. Spring Training is winding down, paving the way for a very exciting season in Major League Baseball. Predicting how an entire baseball season will play out is tough, very tough. Not to be clich?, but one should make sure to cover all the bases. Combining many intricate elements, the projections for baseball?s 2006 season were born. This in-depth research includes reference to the works of sabermetrician Bill James (in particular his win share calculations), statistics from Baseball America, and various scouting reports and charts. The final component in this forecast is derived from my research of statistics, mainly involving statistical trends of ballclubs and players. This study has taken the following essentials into account: free agent signings/trades, statistical trends, ballpark effects, career numbers, situational statistics, lineup and rotation effects, split statistics, league adjustments, and schedule factors. From Albert Pujols to Andy Phillips to Johan Santana to Joey Devine, every projected starter and bench player on every big league club has been analyzed to help create Forecast 06. Well, after many sleepless nights of intense reading, crunching statistics and tying up loose ends, my forecast for the 2006 Major League Baseball season is finally complete. So without further delay, here is Forecast 06 (with explanations): Forecast 06: Projected Standings (Team, 2006 Wins Range, Place) American League EAST New York Yankees, 93-97, 1st Boston Red Sox, 91-95, 2nd Toronto Blue Jays, 85-89, 3rd Baltimore Orioles, 76-80, 4th Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 61-65, 5th Offseason: The AL East becomes one of the toughest divisions in Major League Baseball after this offseason. The Blue Jays greatly improved their club with some major additions including AJ Burnett, Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay and BJ Ryan. Toronto arguably has the best starting pitching staff in the division. Adding arms to the bullpen as well as a leadoff hitter in Johnny Damon will greatly help the Yankees in 2006. Boston brought in some quality players in Josh Beckett, Coco Crisp, Mark Loretta and Mike Lowell to bolster their ballclub. The additions of former Atlanta Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone and veterans Kris Benson, Corey Patterson, Ramon Hernandez and Jeff Conine will help Baltimore steal a few wins from their division rivals. Tampa Bay continues to think long-term in acquiring young talent for veteran players in adding Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany from Los Angeles in the Baez deal. Breakdown: Many people, including myself, consider this division as a three-team race between Boston, New York and now Toronto. The New York Yankees will emerge as the division champions. New York?s lineup now including Damon, is among the best baseball has ever seen and will certainly offset its very questionable starting pitching staff. Boston and Toronto will engage in a fight for second, and possibly a wild card birth. The Red Sox get the edge because of their very strong batting order. Baltimore could make things interesting as they have enough offensive fire power to make some noise. Tampa Bay will remain in the cellar, but look for the Devil Rays to bring up some of their young studs during the season, in particular shortstop BJ Upton and outfielder Delmon Young. CENTRAL Chicago White Sox, 96-100, 1st Cleveland Indians, 88-92, 2nd Minnesota Twins, 86-90, 3rd Detroit Tigers, 66-70, 4th Kansas City Royals, 63-67, 5th Offseason: The World Champion Chicago White Sox (boy that has a nice ring to it) greatly improved their lineup and pitching staff this offseason in acquiring Jim Thome from Philadelphia and Javier Vazquez from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kansas City was able to pry several veterans away from playoff contending clubs this winter in adding Reggie Sanders, Mark Grudzielanek and Doug Mientkewicz to the fold. Cleveland had a lukewarm offseason in losing their top pitcher and # 2 hitter, but they did manage to add some nice players to their prospect barn (Andy Marte + Kelly Shoppach). Adding several veterans could help Minnesota contend this season. The Twins picked up veterans Luis Castillo, Rondell White and Ruben Sierra. Finally, the Detroit Tigers signed a closer (Todd Jones) and veteran starter (Kenny Rogers) to bolster their pitching. Breakdown: The American League Central has proven to be a tough division to win the past few seasons. The White Sox are due for, at least, back-to-back division titles. Chicago upgraded their offense and deepened their great pitching staff this winter which will earn them the AL Central crown for the second straight season. Cleveland should keep the race interesting with their solid lineup and good pitching, but will be no match for the powerhouse White Sox. Minnesota has some great young players ready to emerge. The Twins are probably one year away from winning the division crown, but if they got hot down the stretch, Minnesota could squeeze into the playoffs as a wild card. Look for the Tigers to make some noise, especially with their solid top-to-bottom batting order. Kansas City will sit in the basement during 2006, but the additions of veterans and the breakout seasons of hopeful youths make the Royals a formidable opponent. WEST Oakland Athletics, 90-94, 1st Los Angeles Angels, 88-92, 2nd Texas Rangers, 78-82, 3rd Seattle Mariners, 69-73, 4th Offseason: The Oakland Athletics definitely improved their club with newcomers Milton Bradley, Esteban Loaiza and Frank Thomas. In Texas, the Rangers reshaped the pitching staff with bringing in Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla and Adam Eaton. Expect the Rangers lineup to improve with the addition of Brad Wilkerson. The Los Angeles Angels were quiet this offseason, very quiet. LA dealt for third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo and brought in Hector Carrasco and JC Romero to help the bullpen. The Seattle Mariners strengthened their batting order and bench with the signings of Carl Everett and Matt Lawton. Rookie backstop Kenji Johjima should help the pitching staff and provide some offense. Breakdown: The AL West will feature some great baseball in 2006. The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels will almost certainly fight for the division title. Oakland?s strong pitching and solid batting order will catapult them to the top of the AL West in 2006. The Angels could fight for a wild card spot with their powerful lineup and good pitching corps. Texas will probably improve on last season, but will fall short of a division title due to fierce competition with LA and Oakland. Seattle will finish at the bottom of the division once again, but expect ?King? Felix Hernandez to emerge as a pitching star in 2006 and maybe even a superstar in ?07. National League EAST New York Mets, 89-93, 1st Atlanta Braves, 86-90, 2nd Philadelphia Phillies, 85-89, 3rd Washington Nationals, 71-75, 4th Florida Marlins, 55-59, 5th Offseason: The National League East was a very active division during the offseason. Florida completely dismantled their club in trading away Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo, Carlos Delgado, and other veterans in exchange for young talent. The New York Mets were able to add a power hitting first baseman in Carlos Delgado from the Marlins and some bullpen help in closer Billy Wagner. New York also obtained some veterans in Julio Franco and Paul Lo Duca to make them a true contender. The Braves lost shortstop Rafael Furcal to the Dodgers via free agency, but were able to acquire Edgar Renteria in a deal with Boston. Other than that move, it was a quiet offseason for the Braves as many of their young players (McCann, Francoeur, LaRoche) are ready to step into starting roles. The Phillies lost Wagner and Thome this winter. Philadelphia was able to acquire center fielder Aaron Rowand from Chicago and pry Tom Gordon away from the Yankees. The Washington Nationals ineffectively courted pitching free agents Burnett and Millwood, but were able to add, at least for now, Alfonso Soriano to their lineup. Breakdown: The NL East could have a very exciting division race in 2006 as any of three teams (Braves, Mets, Phillies) could emerge as the winner. With one of baseballs finest offensive clubs, the New York Mets will emerge as the division winner. Their skilled and powerful lineup offsets the pitching woes that may occur. The battle for second between Atlanta and Philadelphia will have strong wild card implications. Washington is unlikely to surprise people this season and will finish in 4th. The Florida Marlins, sporting a minor-league roster, will finish at the bottom of the division in 2006. Look for the Fish to recapture their playoff form a few years down the road. CENTRAL St. Louis Cardinals, 98-102, 1st Houston Astros*, 86-90, 2nd Milwaukee Brewers, 82-86, 3rd Chicago Cubs, 80-84, 4th Pittsburgh Pirates, 75-79, 5th Cincinnati Reds, 67-71, 6th Offseason: The Pittsburgh Pirates had the best offseason in their division. Pittsburgh was able to bring in quality veterans to help their ballclub. Sean Casey, Jeromy Burnitz, Joe Randa and Roberto Hernandez will definitely help the Pirates win some games this season. The Chicago Cubs added a couple of outfielders this winter in signing Jacque Jones and dealing for Juan Pierre in an attempt to improve the offense. The St. Louis Cardinals lost some key veterans from last seasons run, but made some nice additions to fill the holes. Juan Encarnacion, Larry Bigbie and Junior Spivey fill holes left in St. Louis batting order. The Cards also picked up Braden Looper and Ricardo Rincon to aid their bullpen. Milwaukee had a quiet offseason in trading for veteran third baseman Corey Koskie and reliever Dan Kolb. The Brewers young crop of talent, including Prince Fielder and JJ Hardy, is ready to step into the spotlight and produce at the big league level. New ownership prompted the Cincinnati Reds to stand pat this winter. The Reds signed Scott Hatteberg from Oakland and acquired Tony Womack from the Yankees. The Houston Astros were the most inactive club during the offseason. Preston Wilson joins the Astros outfield after spending last season with Colorado and Washington. The status of Roger Clemens remains in question ? will he hang up the spikes? Breakdown: The St. Louis Cardinals will win the NL Central this season, even if Roger Clemens pitches for Houston. St. Louis features a strong batting order along with arguably the best pitching staff in the division. Look for the Milwaukee Brewers to have a breakout season. Youthful talents such as Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, and Rickie Weeks are likely to help the Brew Crew win more than they lose. The Chicago Cubs are destined for another disappointing season in 2006. The injury history of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior will prove to be too large of an obstacle to overcome. Pittsburgh will continue to improve this season, many young players will be helped by veterans (Casey, Burnitz, Randa) to make a competitive Pirate team. Cincinnati will sit in the basement this season, their weak pitching staff has them destined to lose 90 games. *Disclaimer: If Roger Clemens returns, Houston is likely to win 86-90 games. Should Clemens decide to retire, expect the Astros to win between 77-81 games. WEST Los Angeles Dodgers, 90-94, 1st San Francisco Giants, 87-91, 2nd San Diego Padres, 82-86, 3rd Arizona Diamondbacks, 72-76, 4th Colorado Rockies, 66-70, 5th Offseason: The Los Angeles Dodgers experienced a complete transformation this winter. New GM Ned Colletti added quality free agents Rafael Furcal, Bill Mueller, Kenny Lofton, and Nomar Garciaparra to the mix. San Francisco picked up veterans Steve Finley and Matt Morris to improve their ballclub. The Padres added several veteran bats including Mike Cameron, Vinny Castilla, and Mike Piazza. San Diego also dealt Mark Loretta and Adam Eaton to American League clubs this past winter. The Arizona Diamondbacks brought in several players via free agency and trade. The D?backs dealt Javier Vazquez for Orlando Hernandez; the club also picked up Eric Byrnes, Orlando Hudson, and catcher Johnny Estrada to further improve their team. Colorado was able to sign two veteran relievers to improve the bullpen this winter: Ray King and Jose Mesa. Breakdown: The Los Angeles Dodgers will be victorious this season. The strong batting order and solid pitching staff and bullpen should allow the Dodgers to surpass their divisional rivals. San Francisco is likely to finish second. The Giants veteran ballclub could overtake LA, but with a truly veteran team, injuries could be a strong possibility to limit their chances. San Diego will slip to third place this season, but the Padres could certainly make some noise if injuries plague the Giants in 2006. The Padres have many questions entering the season ? it will truly be a feast or famine year in San Diego. Arizona is destined to finish in fourth place this season. The trading of Vazquez and Troy Glaus left huge holes in their pitching staff and batting order ? they are unlikely to be filled. Colorado will finish last this season, but they are a year or two away from becoming a serious contender for the division as many of their young prospects continue to mature positively. Forecast 06: Projected Wild Card Qualifiers American: Boston Red Sox National: Atlanta Braves Forecast 06: Projected Postseason Results (*clubs in bold win series) 2006 AL DIVISION SERIES Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox Oakland Athletics vs. New York Yankees 2006 NL DIVISION SERIES Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 2006 AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox 2006 NL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals 2006 WORLD SERIES St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago White Sox 2006 WORLD CHAMPIONS St. Louis Cardinals Forecast 06: Projected Award Winners AL Cy Young Award: Mark Buehrle, Chicago NL Cy Young Award: Tim Hudson, Atlanta AL Most Valuable Player: Manny Ramirez, Boston NL Most Valuable Player: Albert Pujols, St. Louis AL Rookie of the Year: Kenji Johjima, Seattle NL Rookie of the Year: Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Now let?s keep this in perspective, these are predictions. Several season-altering issues still need to be resolved. Will Roger Clemens return? Can Barry Bonds stay healthy and produce big numbers? Baseball is a fickle game. It is won and lost by a team, not by individuals. Teams win championships. There is no way to predict a breakout season from one player/team and a disappointing season from another player/team ? that?s what makes the game great, that is why they play out all 162 games each season. So lets all sit back and enjoy the 2006 Major League Baseball season; it will be a good one. Do you have a question, concern, or comment regarding Forecast 06? ? Feel free to email me at [email protected]