Prepare fantasy fans, because the baseball season is fast approaching and thus will begin the most time consuming of all the major fantasy sports seasons. Today we'll examine a perennial position of power (literally), but also look at how it is not what it once was. Don't be fooled by the apparent depth of this field because two of those listed in the top ten (Utley and Kent) are imposters. OK, not really, but there's virtually no chance you're going to start them at first base given that they are eligible at second base as well. We're witnessing the decline of once fantasy giants Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, Todd Helton and a couple others. The reinforcements simply don't seem to be there after Prince Fielder. Without further ado, let's take a look at a position that has slipped a little bit over the past couple years: 1st Base.
1. Albert Pujols ? Age: 26 ? 2005 Stats: 129 Rs/41 HR/117 RBIs/16 SB/.330 AVG
Undoubtedly Albert Pujols is the best in the game offensively at his position. There should be no question that he is the king at first base. In the 2004 season Pujols was the top fantasy performer and last year he was the second best of the bunch, which is a testament to his consistency. This is a guy who has a .332 career batting average, a guy who averages 40 home runs, 125 runs and 125 RBIs a year. The scary part about it is that he?s still on his way up, and as evidenced by last year Pujols appears to have added even stolen bases to his resume. There is no better player to build your franchise around, whether in the majors or in fantasy than Albert Pujols.
2. David Ortiz ? Age: 30 ? 2005 Stats: 119 Rs/47 HRs/148 RBIs/1 SB/.300 AVG
In 2003 David Ortiz burst onto the scene as the designated hitter for the Boston Red Sox, playing a key part in raising the franchise out of the ashes and turning them into perennial contenders. But we will stay away from the intangibles, because following the three year progression of Ortiz explains his spot at #2 better than more sentences would. He?s gone from 79 runs in 2003 to 94 runs in 2004 and then to 119 runs in 2005. He?s gone from 31 home runs in 2003 to 41 in 2004 and to 47 last year. Finally, and this is the most dramatic improvement, Ortiz?s RBI totals have gone from 101 to 139 to 148. All the while he has established himself as a reliable .300 hitter. I see no reason for the upward trend in Ortiz?s stats to slow down. He has gone from an offensive force, to one of the elite to fantasy nobility in just three short years. David Ortiz, welcome to the top 5.
2a. Mark Teixeira ? Age: 25 ? 2005 Stats: 112 Rs/43 HRs/144 RBIs/4 SBs/.301 AVG
As the 2a in this whole process it would be easy to mistake Teixeira for the third best first basemen when that is in fact not the case. While part of his fantasy excellence is due to his home field in Arlington, known to yield quite gaudy offensive number, Teixeira can not be faulted because of where he plays. Just 25 he is among what I consider to be three truly elite first basemen that are among the five best hitters in the game. Tex continues to develop as the centerpiece of an exciting Rangers offense that also features top shortstop Michael Young. His numbers, like those of David Ortiz, should do nothing but keep improving.
4. Derrek Lee ? Age: 30 ? 2005 Stats: 120 Rs/46 HRs/107 RBIs/15 SBs/.335 AVG
The first thing to remember about Lee, and it?s imperative that you keep this in mind, is that he will not repeat what he did last year. He was truly remarkable. The secondary thing that needs to be realized in this case is that Lee will not revert back to his old self either. His old self was the guy who would hit around .280 with 30 home runs. You can throw that out the window. I expect him to land somewhere in between his old totals and last year?s totals. Truly, I think we will see a .300 hitter again this year as well as the same Derrek Lee who raked 40+ HRs. Also expect his run and RBI totals to stay above 100 each. The only thing about this guy that should be completely the same is his 15 stolen bases. Last year we saw the birth of a new member of the fantasy elite, but this year it?s time for Lee to fall back to Earth just a tad.
5. Chase Utley ? Age: 27 ? 2005 Stats: 93 Rs/28 HRs/105 RBIs/16 SBs/.291 AVG
Make no mistake, I don?t consider Chase Utley a first baseman. Ryan Howard has the position on lockdown for the next several years, and besides, I like him at 2B even better. But who am I to pass judgment on Yahoo!?s ways? The emerging star at second base has the potential this year to transcend what we expect from his position and put up 100 Rs/30 HRs/100 RBIs/20 SBs/.300 AVG, this is not at all a farfetched projection. As an added bonus, Utley has the flexibility to play 1B for your squad allowing several new strategies and trade opportunities to arise. Were he a first baseman and only a first baseman, it would still be hard to rank Utley past #7. The fact that he is also the premier player at one of the scarcest positions is just gravy for whoever is so lucky to draft him.
6. Jeff Kent ? Age: 38 ? 2005 Stats: 100 Rs/29 HRs/105 RBIs/6 SB/.289 AVG
Like Utley, Kent is no more of a first baseman than you or I, but it is his eligibility there that is the important part. At 38, Kent should break down any second now, but for some reason there doesn?t seem to be an end in sight. For years we?ve been acting cautious around the aging Kent, but I say no longer should we do this. Until he actually shows that he?s breaking down we should rate him just the same as all the others. At this point in his career, it would be close to lunacy to project his stats improve, but I rate him this high even though his stats likely will decrease if anything. Kent is 10 home runs away from deserving this position as only a first baseman; however he isn?t just a first baseman. If you?ve noticed a trend over the past couple articles, I?m a strong believer in flexibility and the options it provides. I also believe strongly that Kent?s ability to play second base as well makes him quite a valuable commodity even at his age.
7. Todd Helton ? Age: 32 ? 2005 Stats: 92 Rs/20 HRs/79 RBIs/3 SBs/.320 AVG
Helton has never possessed out-of-this-world power, he has only hit 40 HRs twice in his career despite playing at the most hitter friendly park in the league in Coors Field. Last year was a low point for Helton when he failed to drive in 100 RBIs, when he failed to score 100 runs and when he only hit 20 home runs. Excuse me if you think this is absurd, but I will take a guy any day of the week who hits .320 in a down year. While he is indeed in his 30s, Helton isn?t over the hill quite yet. The Rockies? offense is going to be a little better than the pitiful one we saw last year, and I think it?s safe to expect Helton to rebound to 100 runs, 25 home runs and 90 or more RBIs. More significantly though, we could see him rebound to close to his .350 batting average of old.
8. Richie Sexson ? Age: 31 ? 2005 Stats: 99 Rs/39 HRs/121 RBIs/1 SB/.263 AVG
I hate Richie Sexson for his batting average, I hate that he is so detrimental in a category while he doesn?t produce at all in another (stolen bases). Realistically Sexson can?t be expected to hit above .270, so why you ask is he here? To go along with his low points, he also comes with just as much good. There are very few in this league who hover around 100 runs, 40 home runs and 120 RBIs every year and Sexson can count himself among them. Even Safeco Field can not contain him; Sexson is the man to turn to if you?re looking for elite power numbers on the cheap.
9. Paul Konerko ? Age: 30 ? 2005 Stats: 98 Rs/40 HRs/100 RBIs/0 SB/.283 AVG
Paul Konerko won the World Series last fall, so what. So what? He is going to be a new man this year because that?s what happens to people who star in World Series victories. It seems like Konerko?s destiny to consistently, every single year, score 100 runs, hit 40 home runs, knock in 100 RBIs and hit for a respectable .280 average. This year should stray to far from that, but I think if there?s anything to expect of Konerko, it?s more. He?s going to ride off of the confidence the World Series gave him, and it doesn?t hurt that he will now have Jim Thome providing a little protection behind him.
10. Adam Dunn ? Age: 26 ? 2005 Stats: 107 Rs/40 HRs/101 RBIs/4 SBs/.247 AVG
Oh Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn. He is the young man who provides hope for the fans of a hopeless franchise in Cincinnati. As a rule I never like to invest too much into a Red, but Dunn is the exception to this rule (not Ken Griffey Jr. though!) I could go on about his sub-.250 batting average of the past season, but you know this story already. The simple fact about Dunn is that he can mash. Not only that, but he?s in a ballpark that does nothing but help him hit even more home runs. As a result, Dunn is a virtual lock for 100 runs, 45 home runs and 100 RBIs. He could well be this year?s 50 HR hitter. If only he didn?t have such a disappointing average. But did I mention his OF eligibility?
11. Lance Berkman
12. Carlos Delgado
13. Ryan Howard
14. Chad Tracy
15. Jim Thome
16. Jason Giambi
17. Aubrey Huff
18. Lyle Overbay
19. Prince Fielder
20. Chris Shelton
Sleepers & Keepers:
Sleeper Material: This group is packed with potential sleepers, whether it's David Ortiz going at #8 or after in a lot of drafts, or Todd Helton in the mid-to-late 40s or Ryan Howard past the 50s, some of these guys are really flying under the radar. I don't think many people take Chad Tracy seriously but he's going to produce consistently around the board and give you and OF option as well. Lyle Overbay should be better off in the newly revamped Toronto lineup and Chris Shelton has 30 HR potential so watch out!
Keeper Material: At the top you've got Pujols (26) and Teixeira (25) who are already in everyone's top 5 among all fantasy players. If you can get your hands on either one of them it would be huge for your future. Prince Fielder in Milwaukee is just 21 and is going to be a big bat for a very long time. In deep leagues I would keep an eye on Atlanta's Adam LaRoche, who at 26 still has plenty of room to improve on that .259 average and crack the top 20.
On an end note I have to comment on the state of the union for first basemen. It's always been understood that a first baseman is a big bat and isn't expected to tear up the bases and get a lot of steals. I'm almost upset that this year I felt obligated to pass on four premier power threats (Sexson, Dunn, Giambi and Thome) for fear that they would cripple my chances of having a high collective batting average for my team. For shame you offensive threats for limiting so many of yourselves to be only 3-cat studs. Get ready because the second basemen preview will be coming very shortly RealGMers.
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