Rapid fire question: Who has the most home runs since 2004?
Answer: Alex Rodriguez with 208
Rapid fire question number two: Who has the second most home runs since 2004?
Answer: Adam Dunn with 206, just ahead of Albert Pujols' 205 and David Ortiz's 200
Heading into the offseason I was expecting a team to eventually overpay Adam Dunn with a contract worth maybe $50M-$60M over four or five years. It wasn't a year ago that Aaron Rowand and his .805 career OPS signed with the Giants for $60M for five years, so similar kind of money for the not-even-30 Dunn and his .899 OPS/13.9 at bats per home run career totals would be more than enough to get him into that kind of tax bracket.
But teams have steered clear of Dunn altogether and one agent (even more shocking that it is an agent and not a team executive) said that he'd max out at $5M per year.
I realize that many teams have tightened their payroll and that we are in a recession, but I thought there would have to be bread lines from Wall Street to Silicon Valley for a post-PED slugger like Dunn to be ignored like this.
The two principle knocks on Dunn's game stem from the fact that he strikeouts so frequently and that his defense is costly.
I penalize players that strikeout frequently in my FIC metric, but with his lack of speed he at least isn't grounding into double plays, and he has a 3.81 career on base percentage, which puts him on plain with Miguel Cabrera and just behind guys like David Ortiz, Carlos Delgado, and Kevin Youkilis. He's also ahead of Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Jason Bay, and Ichrio Suzuki.
Defensively, it is tough to find a silver lining for him other than the fact that there are 14 teams in the American League, and then that becomes moot with a DH and I'm looking at Minnesota, Kansas City, Seattle, and Toronto specifically. For National League teams that were ranked in the bottom half in homers like the Giants (30th), Nationals (28th), Atlanta (23rd), and the Dodgers (22nd), I think the benefits of getting a legitimate power threat outweigh the runs lost in the field.
But Toronto, a team I believe could use an affordable slugger like Dunn to compete in the now-even harder AL East more than ever, factors back into the Dunn equation and is possibly another factor in why he is being treated like he has been laced with radiation.
I asked John Erardi of the Cincinnati Enquirer if he was surprised that neither Walt Jocketty or Dusty Baker came to Dunn's defense following the controversial comments by Toronto GM JP Riccardi last summer. Dunn was characterized by Riccardi as a player who "doesn't like baseball all that much" and "doesn't have a passion to play the game."
"I don't find it surprising," said Erardi.? "I feel Jocketty and Baker felt there was nothing to be gained with Reds' fans?by defending Dunn at that point. I believe they knew they were going to trade him, and that nothing they could have said at that point would have rehabilitated Dunny's image among Reds fans."
Riccardi's characterization of Dunn seemed unfair to me and I wanted Erardi's opinion on it since he's been close to the situation.
"I feel he does," said Erardi when asked if Dunn seems to genuinely enjoy the game. "The general perception is he doesn't work hard at the game, but I don't agree with the perception."
Erardi also stated that Dunn was well liked "personally and professionally" by his teammates and that he and his agent have misread the market.
A few seasons ago Dunn would be on top of the market, but the recent trends inside MLB front offices have been to rethink the way they valuate defense, with a far greater emphasis on its impact than previously believed.
Erardi also seemed to imply that Dunn has been hurt by being on bad Reds' teams these last eight years.
"Ryan Howard is essentially the same hitter," said Erardi. "Fewer walks, a few more singles, but the same amount of strikeouts.? Do it on a winning team and you are an MVP candidate."
Howard is asking for $18M in arbitration while the Phillies have brought $14M to the table; clearly Dunn is in a different strata with his current free agent starting point.
Dunn is just nine days older than Howard, and although his career OPS is 77 points lower, he actually had a higher 2008 OPS (.899 versus .882) and yet Howard was the MVP runner-up. Howard is the better producer at this point; I'm not debating that notion, but the gap between the two in the batter's box is much more narrow than the $16M to $5M would have you believe.
- Chris Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of the Reina Value, which valuates how well players perform in relation to their contract





