While surveying the MLB WAR leaderboard for hitters, it struck me that most players have accumulated roughly 15% of a full season?s worth of plate appearances. This is a nice round number to use to analyze some of the early season goings on. There are 29 position players in baseball who have provided their respective teams with a WAR of 1.0 or higher so far this season. While it is a tempting feat to the fans of said players? teams to get off to a fast start early on, it is a sobering realization that these players will need to replicate this small chunk of the season six to seven times over the next five months or so. The aforementioned 29 players can be divided into three categories: players we expected to be there (and likely will be among these leaders come season?s end), players we knew had the ability to be there and just weren?t sure they would be, and the final group, everyone?s favorite, guys who we thought had no business being there but refuse to give in to those big, bad prognosticators. Of course, among the first group of players are former MVP?s Justin Morneau, Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer. The second group consists of such players as Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko and Johnny Damon. In this feature, I will be focusing on the third group. Every season has it?s breakout stars and this one is no different. The nine whose early season will be discussed below can be broken down further into three additional groups (as a baseball fan, I have an affinity for groups threes and nines). 1.0+ WAR Players Most Likely to Eventually Regress Back to Their Career Norms Alex Gonzalez ? The Toronto Blue Jays had no idea what they were getting into when they signed Gonzalez to a one year contract to replace Marco Scutaro as their everyday shortstop. Better known for his defensive acumen while building a reputation as one of the game?s better fielding shortstops during his 11 year major league career, Alex Gonzalez is currently masquerading as a middle-of-the-order power hitter. He currently ranks 7th in the American League with a SLG% of .604, due in large part to his seven home runs, which are also good enough to be tied for 5th in the junior circuit. The bad news is that the old adage, ?if it seems to good to be true, then it usually is,? cannot be applied more appropriately to any other player. While his BABIP of .309 isn?t that far out of whack, when you delve a little deeper into the numbers, it is clear that Gonzalez is due to start regressing any day now. Rarely, if ever, does a player buck his career tendencies in his age 33 season. His 2010 walk rate is at a paltry 2.9%, resulting in an OBP of .305 that is actually higher than his career average. He is also striking out in over a quarter of his plate appearances. His batted ball rates, a ground ball rate 8% lower than his career average and a fly ball rate about 7% above, suggest that he is swinging for the fences. This is working early on, as 17.5% his fly balls are leaving the yard, more than double his career average. These fly balls should soon be finding the gloves of opposing outfielders and render Gonzalez back to his familiar role as a slick fielding, bottom-of-the-order shortstop. Kelly Johnson ? Unlike the player preceding him in this feature, Johnson?s value to his team lies predominantly in his offense and he has given the Diamondbacks plenty of it in the early going. Tied for the National League lead, Johnson has swatted 9 home runs, good for one round tripper per 11 plate appearances. This is not the type of power you typically expect from the keystone position. In Johnson?s best season to date, 2007, he hit a total of 16 home runs. Johnson, who was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves in the offseason, has surged this April to produce a SLG% of .726, which is 64% higher than his career average. While his early season success will boost his overall numbers for the year, I see Johnson settling in with a slash line around .285/.350/.470, which is nothing to sneeze at from a second baseman. The problem here is that we are talking about WAR, which is heavily reliant on the caliber of defense a player provides. As Johnson has accumulated a -4.4 UZR/150 for his career, over the long haul of a season, his offense won?t be enough to make up for the lackluster defense in the WAR department. Side note: Kelly Johnson will definitely prove to be one of the better bang for buck offseason free agent signings in all of baseball. Chase Headley ? While he is the youngest of the three players discussed in this section, thus having a better chance of reaching his potential ceiling as a player, he probably has the best chance to provide value on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, I don?t think this is the year that he will make the jump to WAR stardom come season?s end. Don?t get me wrong, Headley has a very bright future ahead of him. His chances of maintaining the success he has had with the bat thus far aren?t very good. His respectable .376 OBP is being propped up by an unsustainable .340 BA. His batting average is so high largely due to a BABIP of .419 that is the second highest in all MLB, but it is important to note that Headley?s minor league numbers suggest that he could be a hitter that does sustain a BABIP in the .340-.350 range. Combine all of this with a walk rate that currently sits at 5.9% for the season, his OPS doesn?t seem likely to fare well going forward. While there is a good chance his power will improve as the season progresses, it won?t be enough to declare him an offensive force just yet. Chase Headley is definitely one of the better young players manning the hot corner in MLB, it?s just that I think it will be another year or two before his offense catches up to his defense and propels him towards the top of the WAR leaderboards 1.0+ WAR Players Most Likely to Parlay Their Early Season Success Into an Above Average Season Vernon Wells ? The man with consensus worst contract in the game has come out of the gates strong in early 2010. It is difficult to discuss Wells without mentioning his contract as he is owed a total of $86 million from 2011-14. That is a lot of dough for a guy who, prior to this season, looked like he had aged quickly on offense and defense. While he might never get back to becoming an above average fielder in center field, his work at the plate this season is giving Blue Jay fans hope that there might be something left in his bat. There isn?t much in the numbers to suggest that Wells? resurgence at the plate is a mirage. Certainly he won?t be able to sustain a .688 SLG for the balance of the season, but a .900 OPS is reasonably in the realm of possibility. His strikeout rate, walk rate and BABIP all fall in line with his career numbers. If he can maintain at least a .350 OBP, he should be able to approach an offense-heavy 3.0 WAR for the 2010 season. Marlon Byrd ? Marlon Byrd parlayed his success at the Ballpark in Arlington in 2009 into a three year contract with the Chicago Cubs, to which he has held up his end of the bargain so far in 2010. Being a late bloomer, the Cubs took a chance on Byrd hoping that he wasn?t simply a product of a hitter-friendly park in Texas. While his early season success has been largely aided by a .377 BABIP, his .367 OBP is not being helped at all by a 2% walk rate. If his walk rate approaches his 7.1% career average, there is a chance he could maintain his early season OBP even if his batted balls start finding more gloves than they have been. Byrd?s power has been impressive early on, and I maintain that if he is able to keep his SLG% above .530 or so, he should be able to post a full season OPS approaching .900. Unfortunately, his defense in center field won?t be enough to keep his WAR in the upper echelon throughout an entire season, seeing as his athleticism is surely on the down slope as he approaches his 33rd birthday. Austin Jackson ? One of the major cogs in the three team trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, the Detroit Tigers were banking on Austin Jackson having a successful rookie campaign. So far, he has been impressive, to say the least. Jackson?s athleticism has always led scouts to believe that he would excel as a defensive center fielder, but the question before this season was if he was ready to adjust to major league pitching. Since being inserted as the Tigers? opening day leadoff man and center fielder, he has posted an impressive slash line of .356/.412/.481. However, all you have to do is glance at the MLB BABIP leaderboard to see his name at the top of the list. A .514 BABIP won?t last forever and to demonstrate how unsustainable that is, the next closest player on the list is nearly .100 points behind. What Austin Jackson will need to do to make up for this is cut down on his strikeouts, as he is currently whiffing in 31.7% of his plate appearances. This is far too many K?s for a leadoff man and, for the Tigers? sake, he will need to cut down on these. However, if Jackson can post a .800 OPS at season?s end, his defense should prop up his WAR enough to be able call his first major league season a rousing success. 1.0+ WAR Players Most Likely to Defy Convention and Sustain Their Early Season Success Throughout Rickie Weeks ? The next player we will discuss has been featured as a potential breakout player for the past 5 years or so. He has the power potential and patience at the plate to make fans salivate at the numbers he might be able to generate from the second base position. Alas, no one knows what he is able to do over the course of a full season because he can?t seem to keep himself on the field and off the trainer?s table. So far this season, he has produced a healthy .390 OBP to pair with his .459 SLG%, while slugging four home runs in the season?s first month. Nothing about his early season success seems to be unsustainable. If he finally is able to turn in a healthy season at age 27, we might see an .850+ OPS from the Brewers? second baseman with some improved defense. If all this occurs, Weeks will finally fulfill his potential that the Brewers have been waiting so patiently for. Colby Rasmus ? Defense is one area of the game that Cardinals fans won?t have to worry about with regards to their homegrown center fielder. Colby Rasmus is just 23 years old and last season posted a 13.3 UZR/150. While UZR is a statistic that is best used in very large sample sizes (i.e. 3+ full seasons), the naked eye will testify that Rasmus has a knack for getting a great initial jump on balls and his speed and quickness serve him well to chase down balls that others would not. However, the Cardinals had to be concerned with his performance at the plate when Rasmus transitioned from AA to AAA and his power dipped precipitously. In that time period, his SLG% decreased 28%, from .551 to .396. Nevertheless, the Cardinals promoted him to the big club to begin the season in 2009 and he struggled at the plate to the tune of a .714 OPS. At the plate this year, however, it has been a different story as the power and patience is back with Rasmus putting up a 1.109 OPS to begin the season. The promise that had him near the top of most prospect lists early in his professional career is beginning to come to fruition. Since the land of 1.100+ OPS is usually only visited by his teammate, Phat Albert, over the course of a full season, we should expect some regression. His walk rate of 19.5% is significantly higher than what can be expected, but we shouldn?t expect him to repeat his 2009 rate of 6.9%. He should settle right in the middle around 12%, which was the norm for him in the minors. His power is the real unknown variable in this equation. If he is able to use his start to propel him to a 2010 season line of .275/.360/.500, Rasmus should be among the National League WAR leaders come season?s end. Andrew McCutcheon ? I am unabashed in my affinity for Andrew McCutcheon as a baseball player. He plays every aspect of the game well and just looks like a star on the field. He is a weapon in the batter?s box, in the field and on the basepaths. After finishing fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting last season, he is doing everything to suggest that he will not become the next Angel Berroa. He plays a premium position, center field, effortlessly and plays it well. He produced a slash line last season of .286/.365/.471 for an OPS of .836, while stealing 22 bases and belting 12 home runs in only 493 plate appearances. Early in 2010, those same numbers are sitting at .297/.349/.465 for an OPS of .814, 10 stolen bases and four dingers. It seems as if the Pirates are turning him lose on the bases this season, making me believe that 50 stolen bases are a given. His walk rate early on is a little low at 6.4%, but his minor league numbers suggest that over a full season, this should settle in anywhere from 8-11%. I can only see Andrew McCutcheon improving from here on out and I think an OPS of .850 to go along with superb defense is in his sights for his age 23 season.