With the 2015 Major League Season nearly two weeks old, what better time than now to introduce a new feature at RealGM? Every two weeks I’ll run down a few of things that have caught my eye. The topics will be wide-ranging -- statistical, analytical and opinion-based – and I’ll do my best not to neglect your favorite franchise.

 

Home Runs

There have been 256 home runs hit through Friday morning, which computes to one home run every 42.3 at-bats. As you might expect, the American League (37.3) is hitting homers as a higher rate than the National League (47.4). That seems like a pretty good rate, so is offense really dying?

Actually, yes.

Here is the home run rate (per at-bat) over the last 10 years:

2015: 42.3

2014: 40.7

2013: 36.7

2012: 34.8

2011: 38.5

2010: 37.4

2009: 34.2

2008: 35.8

2007: 35.0

2006: 31.7

If you think home runs are the principal way to score (some do, mostly in AL cities) then the Rise of the Pitcher is both real and growing. That’s why someone like Nelson Cruz (a career .269 hitter) signed a $57 million deal this past offseason. The 34-year-old slugged 40 home runs in 2014 and already has six this season. He has more homers than five teams.

 

Will the Nationals score?

The Washington Nationals fell at the hands of the eventual champion San Francisco Giants in the NLDS last October because they simply couldn’t score. They crossed the plate nine times in what was essentially five games (Game 2 went 18 innings). They hit .164/.222/.258 and relied heavily on the long ball with four home runs.

Fast forward a few months and the Nationals are the title favorite with a rotation that features five starters capable of Cy Young-caliber numbers. But will they be able to score enough to win big?

The sample size is small, but through 10 games the pitching hasn’t been as good as advertised. The Nationals have a 3.26 ERA (sixth in NL), six quality starts and a .249 batting average against (ninth). They have poor strikeout numbers -- 7.23 strikeouts per nine (twelfth) after ranking eighth last season.

Washington scored often last year, ranking third in the NL with 4.23 runs per game. They have shuffled through their first 10 games (4-6) because the pitching hasn't been excellent and the offense hasn’t patched those holes. The Nationals have averaged 3.9 runs, but the offense has been largely inconsistent. They scored 21 runs in three games at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox and just 18 runs over their other seven contests. The Nationals aren’t going to play sub-.500 baseball for much longer because they’ll get better on the mound and at the plate.

 

Milestone Forecast 

With the sample size small for deep analysis, there’s no better time than the first fortnight of the season to forecast what players are approaching milestones. You can use this guide to determine which games you’ll watch and maybe even attend in the coming weeks/months.

Alex Rodriguez, who is hitting .286/.394/.571 in 33 PAs, is just 53 hits shy of 3,000 for his career.

Adrian Beltre (396), Miguel Cabrera (392) and Mike Trout (99) are all approaching significant home run milestones in the coming days. Rodriguez (656) is also five dingers from passing Willie Mays for fourth-place on the all-time list.

Ichiro Suzuki, who stole 15 bases in 2014, needs 13 to reach 500 in the Major Leagues. Only 37 players have done so.

Clayton Kershaw (98) needs two wins to reach 100.

CC Sabathia (2,452) needs 48 strikeouts to become the 31st player in history to reach the 2,500-strikeout plateau.