RealGM Analysis
In case you’re not familiar with the format of my rankings, I organize the players in tiers based on position. I strongly suggest using a tier system for all of your drafts. You will also find a composite ranking of the top 200 players at the end of this article, which is to be used to cross-check against the tier rankings (since player values vary based on position). Please also note the following with respect to the rankings:
- Rankings are based on the standard 5 x 5 categories (R, HR, RBI, AVG and SB on offense; W, K, ERA, WHIP and S for pitching). Adjust accordingly for leagues with additional/different categories. For example, Joey Votto gets a bump for leagues with OBP.
- Rankings cover the 2014 season ONLY. For keeper/dynasty leagues, you will need to factor in keeper ramifications accordingly.
Please hit me up on twitter or email (see below for info) with any questions regarding ranking changes due to your specific league rules. On that note, here we go:
Catchers
Tier 1: Buster Posey
Tier 2: Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, Jonathan Lucroy
Tier 3: Brian McCann, Wilin Rosario, Salvador Perez, Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, Jason Castro
Tier 4: Miguel Montero, AJ Pierzynski, Evan Gattis, Devin Mesoraco
Tier 5: Yan Gomes, Carlos Ruiz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Russell Martin, Alex Avila, Mike Zunino
* Note: Players in bold are those whom I expect to outperform their ADPs.
Posey once again stands alone at the top level, albeit with Molina, Mauer, Santana and Lucroy not too far behind in value. With respect to catchers, I said this last year, and the year before, and the year before that, etc. – while Posey and company are fantastic, I recommend waiting until the later rounds to draft a catcher. I advocate this strategy because catchers 1) get injured more than any other position players, 2) post less consistent offensive numbers from year to year than other position players, and 3) play less games than other position players, among other reasons. In fact, I see no issue with using the waiver wire to pick up the hot hand when it comes to catchers. That being said, for those looking to draft a catcher sooner rather than later, I like Joe Mauer this year. In case you haven’t heard, Mauer has fully transitioned to first base this season. So, look for his health prospects to increase, and for a batting average in the .330 range. Also, be aware that Mauer will lose C eligibility in leagues next season, so for those in dynasty leagues, keep that in mind. For those willing to wait on catchers, I am all in on Wilson Ramos this season. Ramos hit 14 home runs from July through September last year, and I view this as a young player making major strides. Jason Castro also broke out last season, and his steps forward were no fluke either. For those in very deep leagues, Devin Mesoraco is worth a flier. He’s got a good eye at the plate and has shown power in the minor leagues, so keep an eye on him as a sleeper.
First Basemen
Tier 1: Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Davis
Tier 2: Prince Fielder, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto
Tier 3: Freddie Freeman, Buster Posey
Tier 4: Eric Hosmer, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, David Ortiz, Allen Craig, Carlos Santana
Tier 5: Jose Abreu, Billy Butler, Anthony Rizzo, Mark Trumbo, Matt Adams, Mike Napoli, Michael Cuddyer, Brandon Belt
Tier 6: Brandon Moss, Mark Teixeira, Kendrys Morales, Ryan Howard, Nick Swisher, Victor Martinez, Justin Morneau, Chris Carter
* Note: Players in bold are those whom I expect to outperform their ADPs.
We have new kings on the 1B mountain, with Paul Goldschmidt and Chris Davis atop the perch. Tiers 2 and 3 have strong performers as well, with tier 4 generally housing players with potential for strong seasons, but also with more risk (age, injury, etc.). Eric Hosmer raked during the second half of 2013, and I firmly remain on his bandwagon. Albert Pujols carries injury risk, but he’s fallen quite far down draft boards, further than warranted. As noted in the catcher rankings, I think Mauer produces strong numbers this season, albeit his best value would be in the catcher slot. Now for one of my favorite roll-of-the-dice players this year, how about Jose Abreu? Dude’s got serious power. Sure, Abreu will strike out quite often (note this in points leagues), but he has an incredibly high ceiling, and based on where he figures to go in the draft, he provides one of the best chances at a high ROI.
Please note in relation to the catchers listed here (Posey, Mauer and Santana) that in each case, the fact that they have catcher eligibility has factored into their first base ranking. So in other words, if these players solely had first base eligibility, they would be ranked a bit lower among other first basemen than what is reflected above.
Second Basemen
Tier 1: Robinson Cano
Tier 2: Jason Kipnis, Dustin Pedroia
Tier 3: Matt Carpenter, Ian Kinsler, Ben Zobrist, Jose Altuve, Brandon Phillips
Tier 4: Martin Prado, Aaron Hill, Jed Lowrie, Jurickson Profar, Chase Utley, Jed Gyorko, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Howie Kendrick, Brian Dozier
Tier 5: Neil Walker, Kolton Wong, Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, Alexander Guerrero, Marco Scutaro
* Note: Players in bold are those whom I expect to outperform their ADPs.
Robby Cano once again sits alone in the top tier, although tier 2 has inched closer to him in value. Kipnis had a breakout season in 2013, and he certainly merits a high selection in the draft (2nd round or so). Take note of the depth we have at second base, which is a new development. Tier 4 has high ceiling players that could post great numbers – more on that in a moment. I have Brandon Phillips at the end of tier 3, but was tempted to drop him to tier 4. With the exception of RBI, Phillip’s numbers took a bit of a dive last year, and he’s not getting any younger. Long story short, I’d allow another manger to draft him.
With Kinsler traded to the Tigers, Profar gets sole custody of the 2B position for the Rangers. Profar has been a top prospect for the past few years, and he will post good numbers this season. Gyorko comes with a bit less pedigree than Profar, but his value should be similar to that of Profar for fantasy purposes. Defense is where Profar has Gyorko beat, but that makes no impact on most fantasy leagues. Finally, we’ve reached my upside play for second base. Anthony Rendon has nudged Danny Espinosa out of the position (technically the Nationals have an open competition at second base this spring, but expect Rendon to win this battle), and Rendon carries a strong bat. He’s got health concerns, but given good health, Rendon has a chance to provide the best ROI among second basemen.
Third Basemen
Tier 1: Miguel Cabrera
Tier 2: Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria, David Wright
Tier 3: Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Carpenter, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado, Pablo Sandoval, Martin Prado
Tier 4: Brett Lawrie, Chase Headley, Nolan Arenado, Aramis Ramirez, Will Middlebrooks
Tier 5: Todd Frazier, Mike Moustakas, Chris Johnson, Matt Dominguez, David Freese, Trevor Plouffe, Juan Uribe
* Note: Players in bold are those whom I expect to outperform their ADPs.
No surprises in tiers 1 and 2, as we’ve got the same folks who have anchored this position the past few years. Note the fantastic depth at third base this year – many quality options in tier 3. The options don’t stop there, as I see great value lurking in tier 4 as well. Lawrie has disappointed owners the past few years, but I’m taking the plunge one final time here (noting that he will be available in the later rounds). Lawrie’s talent cannot be denied, and while we must acknowledge that he’s not likely to be a superstar, there’s no reason he can’t finally put together a season similar to those in tier 3. Arenado is known more for contact and gap hits than power, but playing in Coors, he should build upon a solid rookie season and add some four-baggers to his stats. As for Middlebrooks, he’s shown power in his stints with the Red Sox, and with Stephen Drew most likely playing elsewhere, Middlebrooks will capitalize on the opportunity in the Red Sox potent lineup.
Shortstop
Tier 1: Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki
Tier 2: Ian Desmond, Jose Reyes, Jean Segura, Ben Zobrist
Tier 3: Elvis Andrus, Starlin Castro, Everth Cabrera, Andrelton Simmons, JJ Hardy, Jed Lowrie
Tier 4: Asdrubal Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jhonny Peralta, Xander Bogaerts, Jonathan Villar, Brad Miller, Derek Jeter, Erick Aybar
Tier 5: Zack Cosart, Alcides Escobar, Yunel Escobar, Rafael Furcal
* Note: Players in bold are those whom I expect to outperform their ADPs.
The top shortstop tier reverts back to the days of yore – well actually, just a few years back – when Hanley and Tulo sat atop the rankings as a duo. Those who took a chance on Hanley Ramirez last season were rewarded handsomely, and he looks to be back to his old self. Both he and Tulo have injury concerns, but when healthy their production cannot be matched by the rest of the SS field. Tier 2 offers good options as well, with Segura as the newcomer to the club. Was Segura’s second half fade last season a regression to the mean or was he just fatigued? We will find out, but his game fits quite nicely for fantasy purposes. Tier 3 provides intriguing options as well, albeit with a lower ceiling than the ties above. The most enigmatic would be Starlin Castro, who was a bust last season. How he performs this season will be quite telling as to his long term prospects, as he has no excuse not to return to his 2012 levels. While Andrelton Simmons is known for his glove first and foremost, his 17 HRs last season were no fluke. Will he exceed that total? Not necessarily, but he has room to further develop his offensive skills, and he should provide good value in the mid to later rounds of the draft. A few younger guys in tier 4 to keep an eye out for are Jonathan Villar and Brad Miller. Villar is a speed demon, and watch him run loose on the league. Brad Miller’s offensive tools come more in the conventional sense, and while he won’t post spectacular numbers, he should post useable numbers for those in deep leagues. Xander Bogaerts has the bigger name and a higher ceiling than Villar and Miller, but I suspect his ADP will be much higher, so Villar and Miller could well provide better ROI this season.
Outfielders
Tier 1: Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen
Tier 2: Carlos Gonzalez, Bryce Harper, Adam Jones, Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury
Tier 3: Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, Justin Upton, Carlos Gomez, Jose Bautista, Alex Rios, Shin-Soo Cho, Jay Bruce
Tier 4: Ben Zobrist, Allen Craig, Yoenis Cespedes, Starling Marte, Matt Holiday, Wil Myers, Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, Hunter Pence, Matt Kemp
Tier 5: Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran, Alex Gordon, Shane Victorino, Coco Crisp, Mark Trumbo, Jayson Werth, Desmond Jennings, Michael Cuddyer, Domonic Brown, Austin Jackson
Tier 6: Wil Venable, Adam Eaton, Curtis Granderson, Brandon Moss, Billy Hamilton, Alfonso Soriano, Brett Gardner, Norichika Aoki, Nick Markakis, Leonys Martin, Khris Davis, Nick Swisher, Torii Hunter, Nelson Cruz, BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Christian Yelich, Michael Bourn, Josh Reddick
Tier 7: Ben Revere, Michael Brantley, Dexter Fowler, Alejandro de Aza, Evan Gattis, Oscar Taveras, George Springer, Corey Hart, Colby Rasmus
* Note: Players in bold are those whom I expect to outperform their ADPs.
No significant surprises in the top 2 tiers, as fantasy managers have been familiar with those names for a few years now. Yasiel Puig and Carlos Gomez made their splash last season and find themselves in tier 3. While good value can be had in tier 5 and below, there’s a noticeable drop from tiers 1 & 2, and further from tiers 3 & 4, whether it be in ceiling or injury risk. You should aim to get at least one OF from the top 3 tiers, and two total from the top 4 tiers. As for the bolded veteran trio (Heyward, Hamilton and Jackson), I think each player has dropped further than he should on draft boards. While none will win you your fantasy league, I do expect each to give you more than your money’s worth based on current ADP. Adam Eaton was deemed a sleeper last year, only to suffer an elbow injury, which shot most of his 2013 season. He should fit in well with the White Sox and provide solid top-of-the-order numbers. Two youngsters tucked away in tier 7 are Oscar Taveras and George Springer. Each more likely than not will start the season in triple A, but expect both to contribute by no later than the mid-way point of the season. Similar to Wil Myers last season, if you’re looking for players to stash, these are two good options.
Starting Pitchers
Tier 1: Clayton Kershaw
Tier 2: Yu Darvish, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer
Tier 3: David Price, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Jose Fernandez, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke
Tier 4: Anibal Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Mat Latos, Mike Minor, Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Cain, Alex Cobb, James Shields, Gio Gonzalez, Homer Bailey
Tier 5: Jered Weaver, Masahiro Tanaka, Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Kris Medlin, Danny Salazar, Hisashi Iwakuma, Doug Fister, Matt Moore, Sonny Gray
Tier 6: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jeff Samardzija, Michael Wacha, Jon Lester, Andrew Cashner, Cole Hamels, Hiroki Kuroda, Johnny Cueto, Zack Wheeler, RA Dickey, CC Sabathia, CJ Wilson, Patrick Corbin, Chris Archer, Clay Buchholz, Tony Cingrani
Tier 7: Matt Garza, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Justin Masterson, Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett, Marco Estrada, Jarrod Parker, Ivan Nova, Yovani Gallardo, Tim Lincecum, Corey Kluber, Chris Tillman, Taijuan Walker, John Lackey, Dan Strailey, Ervin Santana, Rick Porcello, Alex Wood, Ubaldo Jimenez
Tier 8: Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Josh Johnson, Brandon Beachy, Jonathan Niese, Ian Kennedy, AJ Griffin, Wade Miley, Travis Wood
* Note: Players in bold are those whom I expect to outperform their ADPs.
Starting pitching continues to remain incredibly deep. The top tier pitchers are clearly defined, but once you start dipping into tiers 4 and below, the tier lines get quite blurry and subject to personal preference. With such incredible depth, I suggest getting one stud anchor for your staff, and once you’ve solidified your offense, draft a large volume of pitchers from the tier 5 range and down. Now if the opportunity arises to draft a second stud pitcher at great value in the earlier rounds, that’s fine to pull the trigger. Just note lots of pitching remains in the later rounds. The youthful trio of Teheran, Salazar and Gray boasted terrific peripheral stats last season, and they passed the eyeball test as well. As such, expect each of them to take another sizeable leap forward season. While not quite as talented as the aforementioned trio, Ivan Nova also took a leap forward last year with an increased K rate and decreased walk rate, and he is a sneaky good selection in the mid to later rounds. Finally, two pitchers who only a few years ago were ranked near the top of the pitching pyramid – Dan Haren and Josh Johnson – are worth a flyer for those looking for value in the later rounds. While spring training always brings the most optimistic news, Haren and Johnson are rumored to be as healthy as they’ve been in a few years. Based on their ADPs, why not take a chance?
Relief Pitchers
Tier 1: Craig Kimbrell, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman
Tier 2: Greg Holland, Koji Uehara, Trevor Rosenthal, Joe Nathan
Tier 3: Sergio Romo, David Robertson, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, Addison Reed, Glen Perkins, Jonathan Papelbon, Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, Casey Janssen
Tier 4: Huston Street, Ernesto Frieri, Fernando Rodney, Steve Cishek, Bobby Parnell, Tommy Hunter
Tier 5: Jim Henderson, John Axford, Neftali Feliz, LaTroy Hawkins, Jose Veras
Tier 6: Nate Jones, Rex Brothers, Chad Qualls, Jesse Crain, Joakim Soria
* Note: Players in bold are those whom I expect to outperform their ADPs.
The adage spoken by many, including myself – don’t pay for saves – applies this year as well (and will apply for the foreseeable future). There is just too much turnover at the closer position to justify the risk of investing high picks. Those who remain active on the waiver wire will find closers during the course of the year. In terms of strategy, I would recommend drafting no more than one closer within your top 10 picks, and then take a flyer or two on some of the tier 4 through 6 guys. The key again though is to be active on the wire to snag new closers as they are anointed. We know Neftali Feliz has lights out stuff, and assuming he holds off Joakim Soria for the closer role and if he stays healthy, he should provide great value for owners in the lower rounds. It appears that Nate Jones has the lead for the White Sox closer role, and he’s another such value pick in the later rounds. Rex Brothers holds the main setup chair for the Rockies, but if anything happens to LaTroy Hawkins, Brothers will see his value shoot up.
Final Notes:
There you have it, the 2014 RealGM fantasy baseball rankings. My general strategy recommendations and last pieces of advice are as follows:
- First, know the rules and scoring of your league inside and out. I can’t stress this point enough. Based on scoring categories, some leagues lean pitcher friendly, and others, offense is king. Know your league rules, and adjust these rankings accordingly.
- With the above point in mind, know that with regards to pitching, 1) starting pitching has incredible depth this year, and 2) closers provide the highest bust rate, since so many of them lose their jobs each year due to injury or ineffectiveness. When conducting your draft, don’t lose sight of this.
- The team that you draft and manage is yours and only yours. So, go with your gut, but do so reasonably. For example, you like Jose Abreu this season, then take him, without worrying what others say. These rankings, just like any others out there, provide a good guideline as to where to value players. But, they are just a guideline.
-And most importantly, have fun!
Top 200
1. Mike Trout
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Andrew McCutchen
4. Paul Goldschmidt
5. Carlos Gonzalez
6. Chris Davis
7. Hanley Ramirez
8. Bryce Harper
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Adam Jones
11. Robinson Cano
12. Troy Tulowitzki
13. Adrian Beltre
14. Prince Fielder
15. Edwin Encarnacion
16. Ryan Braun
17. Yu Darvish
18. Jacoby Ellsbury
19. Evan Longoria
20. Joey Votto
21. David Wright
22. Adam Wainright
23. Jason Kipnis
24. Dustin Pedroia
25. Cliff Lee
26. Freddie Freeman
27. Felix Hernandez
28. Giancarlo Stanton
29. Stephen Strasburg
30. Max Scherzer
31. Ian Desmond
32. Yasiel Puig
33. Justin Upton
34. Carlos Gomez
35. Jose Reyes
36. David Price
37. Chris Sale
38. Ryan Zimmerman
39. Jose Bautista
40. Alex Rios
41. Madison Bumgarner
42. Jose Fernandez
43. Matt Carpenter
44. Ian Kinsler
45. Jean Segura
46. Eric Hosmer
47. Albert Pujols
48. Shin-Soo Choo
49. Jay Bruce
50. Justin Verlander
51. Josh Donaldson
52. Zack Greinke
53. Ben Zobrist
54. Yadier Molina
55. Adrian Gonzalez
56. Joe Mauer
57. Craig Kimbrell
58. Allen Craig
59. Jose Altuve
60. Anibal Sanchez
61. David Ortiz
62. Kenley Jansen
63. Kyle Seager
64. Brandon Phillips
65. Yoenis Cespedes
66. Aroldis Chapman
67. Gerrit Cole
68. Mat Latos
69. Pedro Alvarez
70. Elvis Andrus
71. Carlos Santana
72. Elvis Andrus
73. Starlin Castro
74. Starling Marte
75. Mike Minor
76. Jordan Zimmerman
77. Matt Holliday
78. Matt Cain
79. Manny Machado
80. Wil Myers
81. Jason Heyward
82. Alex Cobb
83. James Shields
84. Pablo Sandoval
85. Gio Gonzalez
86. Homer Bailey
87. Martin Prado
88. Hunter Pence
89. Everth Cabrera
90. Greg Holland
91. Jonathan Lucroy
92. Koji Uehara
93. Jose Abreu
94. Jered Weaver
95. Masahiro Tanaka
96. Shelby Miller
97. Julio Teheran
98. Andrelton Simmons
99. Trevor Rosenthal
100. Josh Hamilton
101. Billy Butler
102. Anthony Rizzo
103. Carlos Beltran
104. Alex Gordon
105. Kris Medlin
106. Danny Salazar
107. JJ Hardy
108. Joe Nathan
109. Anthony Rizzo
110. Aaron Hill
111. Shane Victorino
112. Hisashi Iwakuma
113. Jed Lowrie
114. Coco Crisp
115. Doug Fister
116. Brett Lawrie
117. Matt Moore
118. Mark Trumbo
119. Jurickson Profar
120. Jayson Werth
121. Brian McCann
122. Sonny Gray
123. Desmond Jennings
124. Chase Headley
125. Chase Utley
126. Matt Adams
127. Mike Napoli
128. Brian McCann
129. Wilin Rosario
130. Michael Cuddyer
131. Domonic Brown
132. Brandon Belt
133. Austin Jackson
134. Jed Gyorko
135. Daniel Murphy
136. Nolen Arenado
137. Sergio Romo
138. Salvador Perez
139. Hyun-Jin Ryu
140. Jeff Samardzija
141. Michael Wacha
142. Jon Lester
143. Andrew Cashner
144. David Robertson
145. Asdrubal Cabrera
146. Jason Grilli
147. Aramis Ramirez
148. Cole Hamels
149. Will Middlebrooks
150. Wil Venable
151. Hiroki Kuroda
152. Johnny Cueto
153. Adam Eaton
154. Curtis Granderson
155. Matt Wieters
156. Jim Johnson
157. Addison Reed
158. Zack Wheeler
159. RA Dickey
160. Asdrubal Cabrera
161. Brandon Moss
162. Wilson Ramos
163. Alexei Ramirez
164. Glen Perkins
165. CC Sabathia
166. Billy Hamilton
167. CJ Wilson
168. Jonathan Papelbon
169. Rafael Soriano
170. Mark Teixeira
171. Jason Castro
172. Anthony Rendon
173. Jimmy Rollins
174. Alfonso Soriano
175. Brett Gardner
176. Norichika Aoki
177. Patrick Corbin
178. Chris Archer
179. Clay Buchholz
180. Tony Cingrani
181. Grant Balfour
182. Casey Janssen
183. Nick Markakis
184. Kendrys Morales
185. Howie Kendrick
186. Matt Garza
187. Dan Haren
188. Jhonny Peralta
189. Leonys Martin
190. Huston Street
191. Jake Peavy
192. Justin Masterson
193. Ryan Howard
194. Francisco Liriano
195. AJ Burnett
196. Xander Boegarts
197. Ernesto Frieri
198. Marco Estrada
199. Jarrod Parker
200. Ivan Nova
Neema Hodjat is the fantasy sports writer for RealGM. He can be reached via email at nhodjat@gmail.com and followed on Twitter at @NeemaHodjat.
