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The Yankees ended their playoff drought at one season and their World Series title drought at eight, beating the Phillies in six games to capture their 27th flag. Brian Cashman brought in three big free agents to add to their 'core of four', as well as an even more controversial A-Rod. Just as they did in 1923 with the original Yankee Stadium, the new Yankee Stadium also brought a title.
2009 Opsera Finish: 2nd
What Happened In The Winter
For a team with such a gigantic payroll, it was actually somewhat fascinating to see them all of a sudden cheapen out on Johnny Damon. I believe keeping him for one more season vastly improves their offensive potential in the regular season, gives them a proven clutch October bat and also protects Curtis Granderson a little bit in case it takes him a little while to transition to New York.
But beyond the Damon frugality, I did love what Cashman did this winter. If the winter of 08-09 was about spending gigantic sums of Steinbrenner money to remake the team into a title contender by signing CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, the 09-10 offseason was far more subtle and demonstrated again why Cashman has become one of the better GMs in baseball, regardless of financial backing.
Cashman came away from the winter with trades for Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez without losing anything other than spare parts. Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera could be very serviceable MLB players for the next decade, but they had little chance in becoming anything more than glorified fourth outfielders or sixth starters in the long-term.
Detroit wanted to clear Granderson because of his contract, something that of course isn't an issue for the Yankees. His .780 OPS in 2009 is concerning, but if he hit 30 homers while playing half of his games at Comerica, he will almost surely thrive in Yankee Stadium's short right field porch.
Vazquez, meanwhile, is virtually certain to post a 2.87 ERA again, but he has a lifetime 8.1 K/9 rate and had a 9.8 K/9 rate in 2009. Possessing a starter that never misses a start and misses bats is absolutely critical for the Yankees and acquiring the final season of his deal for Cabrera was a much better value proposition than giving up Jesus Montero and another piece for the right to sign Roy Halladay to a $20M per year extension.
The Yankees signed Nick Johnson to be their designated hitter, though he is essentially replacing Damon's role in the lineup as the lefty OBP guy in the two-hole. They also signed Randy Winn on the cheap, a switch-hitter who can play all three outfield positions and is a great guy in the clubhouse.
Hideki Matsui was also allowed to sign with the Angels without any kind of fight at all.
Yankees Offensive Preview
With All-Stars at every infield position, as well as center and catcher, the Yankees have the best offense in the game. They scored 915 runs and had an OPS of .839 during the 2009 season, both of which ranked them an easy first and that should be repeated again in 2010, especially if Alex Rodriguez is healthy for a full season. Rodriguez had an OPS of .933 and 30 homers in 535 plate appearances, but his postseason performance demonstrated that he would not wilt away the next six seasons of his 30s after the PED discovery.
Teixeira is a virtual lock to have another season at an OPS of at least .925 and Derek Jeter remains immortal and also improved defensively.
Robinson Cano continues to get better, as he hit .320/.352/.520 and should finally hit at least 30 homers in 2010. Nick Swisher is a very good bottom of the order, high OBP guy, who is good for an OPS over .800.
Like the other core of four, Jorge Posada continues to produce at a level that is surprising given his age. Posada is signed through 2011, but it will be interesting to see what ends up developing in the next few months with his heir apparent Montero.
I'm a little bit worried, however, with the Yankees missing the reliable production of Damon and Matsui. These guys hit for an OPS of .854 and .876 respectively and they also stayed healthy throughout the entire season. Neither one can really play left field anymore, but their numbers will not be easy for Granderson and Johnson to replace.
Granderson has the opportunity to become this generation's Bernie Williams in terms of being a perennial borderline All-Star and immensely likable figure. He needs to keep his strikeouts down and simply focus on hitting line drives without pressing.
Johnson is a pure hitter with a career .849 OPS, but he is frequently injured (perhaps a little overstated) though being left exclusively for DH duty should help him stay in the lineup.
Brett Gardner will have the opportunity to play everyday in the Cabrera role as the ninth place hitter and his .724 OPS in 284 plate appearances in 2009 prove he is at least a decent one-year stand-in until the Yankees bid for Carl Crawford to take over left field.
Yankees Pitching Preview
The power trio of Sabathia, Burnett and Andy Pettitte that was so successful in the postseason are all back and picking up Vasquez along the way gives the Yankees one of the best top-fours in the game.
Sabathia was the only regular starter with an ERA under 4.00, however, as Burnett hovered at 4.04 an Pettitte came in at 4.16. Burnett should be a little bit better in 2010, but I think Pettitte will decline at least a little bit as he continues to get older.
Vasquez should have a lot more success in his second New York tour, as he is now a more complete and mature pitcher. He also will be pitching for a contract, a motivator for anyone, especially a mid-30s pitcher.
I am in complete agreement with the decision to make Phil Hughes the fifth starter while moving Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen. This should be a permanent decision, as their temperaments and secondary pitches are best suited to those specific roles.
Any bullpen with Mariano Rivera as its closer, no matter how old he is, won't blow many late game leads. He is now 40-year-old, but he was as automatic as ever throughout the regular season (1.76 ERA in 66.1 innings), as well as the playoffs (one earned run in 16 innings).
The aforementioned Chamberlain moves back to the bullpen, where he was a sensation in 2007 as a rookie and he should be anointed the closer in waiting.
The Yankees could stand to have a little more depth behind those two, but Damaso Marte (assuming he's healthy), David Robertson and Alfredo Aceves are all better than their names are small. I would be surprised, however, if the Yankees don't make some kind of in-season move for a reliever based on in-season evaluations of their vulnerabilities.
What Are Their 2010 Chances?
The Yankees made 13 consecutive postseasons before the 2008 season and even though doing so is more difficult due to the constant presence of the Red Sox and rise of the Rays, I think the Yankees would need to sustain multiple injuries to their top-seven players to not make the postseason for the second straight season. They simply have too much depth of premium talent not to and that is the insurance only their payroll can afford.
The postseason is another story altogether where it becomes a crapshoot. Nevertheless, the Yankees are clear favorites to repeat as World Series champs.
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