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The Twins excitingly sneaked into the 2009 postseason with an improbable last season charge that culminated in a one-game playoff win over the Tigers in a storybook regular season sendoff for the Metrodome?s baseball life.
But then the Twins ran into the Yankees, who they consistently played tough in 2009, yet had no wins to show for their 10 total meetings.
2009 Opsera Finish: 17th
What Happened In The Winter
The best thing that possibly could have happened for the state of Minnesota, other than a Vikings Super Bowl would have been for the Twins to lock up Joe Mauer to a contract extension.
Minnesota began the offseason early with a trade of Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for shortstop J.J. Hardy. Clearing out Gomez fixed their outfield logjam, while Hardy is an ultimate, in his prime, buy-low player with generous upside to recover from his unacceptable 2009.
Bill Smith let midseason acquisition Orlando Cabrera walk, but he did re-sign Carl Pavano.
The Twins also made a couple sneaky moves by signing veterans who had soft markets in Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome. Smith even brought back old amigo Jacque Jones on a minor league contract.
Twins Offensive Preview
The Twins were without Mauer in the beginning of the season and Justin Morneau in the end, but still managed to finish fifth in the MLB in runs scored and seventh in OPS. The M&M Boys combined for 1,196 plate appearances, so they weren?t completely without their two best players, but they were limited in their 2009 potential.
Depending on how Target Field plays, the Twins offense should be even better in 2010, though we may have to look at OPS+ in order to see that improvement in a tangible, statistically provable way.
Hudson is a huge upgrade over Alexi Casilla at second base, while Hardy is an improvement over Brendan Harris, who goes back to his utility role along with Nick Punto.
Jason Kubel had an excellent .907 OPS with 28 homers, a 102 point leap from his .805 OPS in 2008. Michael Cuddayer, meanwhile, was finally healthy and had his best season since 2006, as he hit .276/.342/.520 with 32 homers. The premise of the Twins improving offensively in 2010 rests largely with those two players duplicating their 2009 production.
As far as youthful gambles, Minnesota will need highly productive seasons from Denard Span and Delmon Young, as they only really have Jason Pridie to push them now that Gomez is with the Brewers. The only real alternative to those two being everyday players is Kubel in left field and Thome as the DH. Span had an .807 OPS, though he continues to enigmatically hit lefties (.877) far better than he does righties (.774). Young, more predictably, hits lefty pitching (.833) much better than righties (.685), which makes a Span/Young platoon an unattractive and unlikely option. Thome was brought in as a veteran presence, pinch hitter and injury insurance; Minnesota needs production from Span and Young.
Twins Pitching Preview
The Twins were ranked 23rd in ERA with a mark of 4.50, but their starting pitching (4.84, 26th ranked) was a clear drag on their relief crew (3.87, 10th in MLB, 2nd in AL).
Minnesota didn?t have a single starter with a sub-4.00 ERA, as Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey were unable to duplicate their 2008 seasons, whether it was a drop-off in effectiveness (Baker) or wrist injury (Slowey). Baker struggled against righties, yielding an OPS of .805 in comparison to .607 against lefties. Those numbers should revert back towards his career averages and I?d expect an ERA below 4.00, especially with the bump of pitching half his starts outside.
Nick Blackburn was nearly the identical pitcher in 2009 as he was in 2008 and he is reliable enough to give the Twins another ERA around 4.00 in 2010.
Francisco Liriano had a 5.80 ERA in 2009, still not back to his 2006 self after Tommy John surgery. The Twins can win the AL Central with him in the 4.50 range, but in order to compete in October, they need him to have some of the stuff that made him a 2.16 ERA, 4.50 K/BB pitcher.
Carl Pavano is retained as the elder statesman, reliable innings eater, but it is difficult to get too excited for a guy who pitched 144 innings between 2005 and 2008 before throwing 199.1 of 5.10 ball in 2009. Minnesota absolutely needed him last August and September, but they won?t repeat if he?s their second best pitcher. He will likely be their starter to open Target Field.
In the bullpen, everything revolves around Joe Nathan. Nathan?s ERA was up in 2009 at 2.10, but he had nearly two more strikeouts per nine innings with just a slight increase in his walk rate. He?s had multiple postseason demons, beginning in 2003 with the Giants and again this past October against Alex Rodriguez, which could have completely changed the complexion of their five-game ALDS with a 1-1 series heading back to Minnesota if he would have finished up that ninth inning save. But Nathan is one of the steadier, safest bets in ninth innings and should have another excellent season.
He is supported by Matt Guerrier, Joe Rauch (an underrated midseason pickup) and Clay Condrey, while Jose Mijares is their very effective lefty specialist.
What Are Their 2010 Chances?
If the Twins were in any other division, I wouldn?t be able to foresee them playing October baseball again in 2010, but the AL Central provides opportunities that Ron Gardenhire is too skilled at to not capitalize upon. The Twins have been frequent a postseason team under Gardenhire, but this should be the first time they repeat since 2004 when they went through a three-year run.
Good teams that move into a new stadium typically get a nice boost in their first season and the Twins are typically a better team at home already.
The Twins have the best offense in the AL Central by a fairly wide margin, but will need several big seasons from the staff to balance out the runs scored, runs allowed margin.
Ultimately, I do expect Target Field to host at least one home game against the AL East division winner in its inaugural season.
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