How Much Does This Year's Arbitration Class Deserve?

Below is a list of all the players that appear to be on a collision course with their respective teams for arbitration. The numbers in parenthesis represents their 2008 Field Impact Counter (FIC) rank, Reina Value in 2008 and how much they deserved to make that season. There is no formula by me in determining their estimated 'fair' value except examining their 2008 Reina Value along with how likely it is to be repeated. Click here for more info on the Fic and Reina Value Atlanta Braves - Jeff Francoeur (545th, -6%, $433K) Francoeur was ranked 218th in 2007 and 'deserved' $4 million and clearly took a big step backwards in 2008, dropping his OPS from .782 to .653. He wasn't close to being the player that slugged .549 in his rookie season back in 2005. Fair value: $2M - Mike Gonzalez (408th, -52%, $1.13M) Gonzalez made 36 appearances and his FIC is greatly aided by the fact that he saved 14 games. His strikeout ratio of 44 in 33.7 innings is of course excellent, as was his WHIP, which gave him an excellent SWHIP of -0.090, better than fellow relievers like Brad Lidge, Jonathan Broxton and Joakim Soria. Fair value: $1.5M - Kelly Johnson (233rd, +830%, $4M) Johnson was ranked 194th in season FIC in 2007, so the drop was negligible and fell in line with his OPS drop from .832 to .795. Fair value: $4.5M - Casey Kotchman (182nd, +248%, $5.05M) Kotchman was ranked 161st in 2007, but his drop in production was greater than the FIC reveals. He hit for an OPS of .839 in 2007 and it fell 99 points to .738 in 2008 and he significantly underperformed after the Mark Teixeira trade when he joined the Braves, hitting .237/.331/.316 in 152 at bats. Fair value: $5M Arizona Diamondbacks - Conor Jackson (99th, +1,956%, $8.63M) Jackson has been an .800 and above OPS player since becoming a regular in 2006. His home run production has been less than expected and should spike one of these years. Fair value: $7M - Chad Qualls (299th, +90%, $2.5M) Qualls posted career best marks in ERA, WHIP and in K's per nine. Fair value: $2M Baltimore Orioles - Nick Markakis (43rd, +2,757%, $13M) Markakis has steadily improved in each season and made great strides in 2008 in his plate discipline. He would be a much bigger name if he was written about in 'Moneyball' and played in Boston and probably therefore deserves Kevin Youkilis type of money. Fair value: $11M - Luke Scott (259th, +714%, $3.5M) Scott came over in the Miguel Tejada trade and had another solid season, hitting 23 homers with an OPS of .808. Fair value: $4M - George Sherrill (180th, +423%, $5.13M) Sherrill arrived from Seattle in the Erik Bedard deal and became Baltimore's closer. By just about any metric, ERA, WHIP, K/9, Sherrill's numbers dipped substantially in 2008 from 2007. Fair value: $3M Boston Red Sox - Jonathan Papelbon (55th, +1,448%, $12M) Considering Papelbon is the elite closer not named Mariano Rivera and Francisco Rodriguez is now earning $12.3M annually from the Mets, the basement for Papelbon is probably $13M. Fair value: $13M Chicago Cubs - Kevin Gregg (157th, +148%, $6.2M) Gregg saved 61 games over the past two seasons and has been solid, though not quite spectacular with a SWHIP of during that time frame of 0.3667, which does not compare favorably to closers like Lidge and Wood, who were at -0.087 and -0.076 respectively. Fair value: $4.5M Chicago White Sox - Bobby Jenks (152nd, +1,036%, $6.25M) Closers are clearly a common thread on this list and he's been one of the better ones over the past three seasons. Even though his ERA reached a career best of 2.63, his WHIP and strikeout rate each declined substantially. Jenks struck out 80 batters in 69.7 innings in 2006 and just 38 in 61.7 in 2008. Fair value: $7M Cincinnati Reds - Edwin Encarnacion (264th, +633%, $3.3M) Encarnacion hit 26 homers in 506 at bats, but he struck out more than ever while also playing a subpar defensive third base. Fair value: $4M Colorado Rockies - Garrett Atkins (195th, +10%, $4.84M) Atikins' OPS has dropped from .965 in 2006, to 853 in 2007 and .780 in 2008. That kind of trending is far too problematic to be ignored, as are his home/away career splits of .921/.752 and lefty/right career split of .890/.818. Fair value: $6M - Taylor Buchholz (355th, +339%, $1.75M) Buchholz had a breakout season, lowering his ERA to 2.17 while having an excellent strikeout to walk ratio. His transition to a full time reliever has gone well and could eventually become a closer. Fair value: $1.5M - Jason Grilli (380th, +233%, $1.4M) Grilli first became a familiar name to me back in 1997 when the Giants used their fourth overall pick on him, letting Vernon Wells and Lance Berkman slip by as their system was unable to give Barry Bonds a homegrown positional star. But back to Grilli, he hasn't delivered on that extremely high promise, but he has evolved into a reliable reliever and had a 3.00 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 75 innings. Fair value: $2.5M - Huston Street (204th, +35%, $4.5M) Street lost his closer job in Oakland and found himself included in the Matt Holliday trade. His ERA elevated to 3.73 from 2.88, mainly due to a sharp increase in both walks and hits allowed. He is still striking out batters at a nice clip, but that of course gets negated with the WHIP increase and is reflected in his SWHIP, which was -0.320 in 2007 and 0.243 in 2008. Fair value: $4M Detroit Tigers - Edwin Jackson (135th, +1,596%, $7M) Jackson lowered his ERA of 2007 from 5.76 to 4.42 in 2008. His BAbip allowed of .304 is highly unlikely to be sustainable, though moving to Detroit and out of the AL East can't hurt his numbers. Fair value: $5M - Gerald Laird (499th, -63%, $600k) Since the FIC is almost exclusively an offensive stat, catchers' values are not as fair as I would honestly like it to be. Laird wasn't the kind of batter that he appeared capable of becoming back in 2006, but his OPS rose 100 points from 2007 to 2008 to .727. Fair value: $1.5M - Justin Verlander (121st, +586%, $7.75M) After being a Cy Young candidate in 2006 and 2007, Verlander dipped to a level of relative mediocrity in 2008. His ERA climbed to 4.84 and his K/9 and K/BB both regressed. I think 2006 and 2007 are much more in line with the kind of pitcher he is. Fair value: $9.5M) - Joel Zumaya (852nd, -7%, $390k) If Zumaya is on the mound, then he's easily worth upwards of $6M annually, but he has been limited in each of the past two and he while he had almost as many strikeouts as innings in 2008, he also had as many walks as strikeouts. Florida Marlins - Jorge Cantu (178th, +950%, $5.25M) Cantu was a great find by Michael Hill in one of his first moves as GM. Hehit for an OPS of .808 with 29 homers. Fair value: $4.5M - Jeremy Hermida (527th, +14%, $450k) Hermida slid pretty far down the totem pole after having an OPS of .870 in 2007 by hitting just .249/.323/.406 in 2008. He struck out with far too great of frequency and his play in right field was just average. Fair value: $2.5M - Ricky Nolasco (25th, +3,698%, $14.8M) For me, Nolasco had the best under the radar season in 2008, striking out 186 batters in 212.3 innings and posting a 3.52 ERA. He became one of just 51 pitchers to walked 42 or fewer batters while giving up 28 or more homers. His SWHIP of 0.259 was superior to Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and A.J. Burnett. Fair value: $9M - Cody Ross (331st, +413%, $2M) Ross had an .804 OPS with 22 homers in 2008, though he did have 116 strikeouts to just 33 walks. Fair value: $2M - Dan Uggla (213th, +952%, $4.39M) Uggla hit 32 homers and had a career high OPS of .874. He was very clearly error prone and struck out 171 times, but that kind of power production from the second base position is very rare. Fair value: $5.5M Houston Astros - Brandon Backe (210th, +463%, $4.5M) Finally healthy, Backe struggled to a 6.05 ERA, 1.674 WHIP and a yield of 36 homers. Fair value: $2M - Wandy Rodriguez (169th, +1,120%, $5.5M) Rodriguez had a 3.54 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 137.3 innings. His SWHIP of 0.394 was better than teammate Roy Oswalt's mark of 0.432. Kansas City Royals - Brian Bannister (190th, +1,088%, $5M) Bannister began 2008 very well, but eventually struggled to a 5.76 ERA and 1.495 WHIP, regressing from his 2007 in which he had a 3.87 ERA and was third in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Fair value: $4M - Zack Greinke (52nd, +781%, $12.3M) Greinke returned to full time starting duties in 2008 and had an excellent season, posting a 3.47 ERA and 183 strikeouts in 202.3 innings. He had a 2.92 ERA at Kauffman Stadium. Fair value: $10M - Mike Jacobs (282nd, +659%, $3M) Jacobs had an interesting season in which he hit 32 homers and had a slugging percentage over .500 and an OBP under .300 (Tony Armas and Dave Kingman are the only other two players in history to accomplish that feat). Fair value: $4M Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Maicer Izturis (381st, +17%, $1.4M) Izturis hit for an OPS of just .691, but he hit in the mid to high .700 in each of the previous two seasons, while also playing a very good shortstop. Fair value: $2M - Mike Napoli (33rd, +371%, $2M) Despite splitting time with Jeff Mathis, Napoli hit 20 homers and slugged .586 (.960 OPS), which was quite easily the best amongst MLB catchers. He certainly isn't the best catcher in the world, but that kind of pop is hard to ignore Fair value: $4M - Darren Oliver (346th, -6%, $1.88M) Oliver gave the Angels 72 innings in his third season as a full time reliever and had a 2.88 ERA. Fair value: $2.5M - Ervin Santana (16th, +3,645%, $15.7M) Santana finally found the stuff that made him such a promising young starter, posting a 3.49 ERA, 1.119 WHIP while striking out 214 batters in 219 innings. His 0.178 SWHIP trailed just Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia amongst starters with at least 100 innings. Santana is hurt from not having a lengthier body of work at that $15.7M kind of level that can justify that amount beyond 2008. Fair value: $8M Los Angeles Dodgers - Jonathan Broxton (249th, +715%, $3.7M) Few pitchers throw as hard as Broxton and he not surprisingly has one of the best strikeout rates in the game. He K'd 88 in 69 innings and for his career he now has 306 strikeouts in 241 innings. If Broxton can become a steady closer, his value will exponentially improve. Fair value: $4.5M - Andre Ethier (85th, +2,256%, $10M) Ethier reaped the benefits of being in a lineup with Manny Ramirez and finished the season with an .885 OPS, hitting .991 in the second half. Fair value: $7.5M - Russell Martin (137th, +1,300%, $7M) The Dodgers have a great run of catchers from Mike Piazza to Paul Lo Duca to Russell Martin, but it seems like they're prepared to run another run out of town. His OPS dropped from .843 in 2007 to .781, but he plays everyday and is one of the best offensive catchers in the game. Fair value: $9M Milwaukee Brewers - Prince Fielder (113th, +1,094%, $8M) Repeating his 2007 production of 50 homers and a 1.013 OPS was going to be nearly impossible from the word vegetarian, but Fielder's .879 OPS and 34 homers as a follow-up still of course put him amongst the most dangerous hitters in the game. Fair value: $10M - Corey Hart (224th, +833%, $4.14M) Hart's OBP and slugging both took sizable dips in 2008 from the .892 OPS he had in 2007, but he still finished the season with 20 homers and 45 doubles. Fair value: $5.5M - Seth McClung (286th, +283%, $2.88M) McClung had a 4.02 ERA, splitting time between the bullpen and starting. He struck out 87 batters in 105.3 innings. Fair value: $3M - Rickie Weeks (281st, +184%, $3M) Weeks' OPS dipped from .807 in 2007 to .740 in 2008, while he also continued to play an error-filled second base. Fair value: $3.5M Minnesota Twins - Matt Guerrier (439th, +0%, $950k) Guerrer had an uncharacteristic 5.19 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in 76.3 innings out of the bullpen for the Twins. He had a very good stretch from 2005 and 2007 and this season was likely some sort of aberration. Fair value: $1M - Jason Kubel (222nd, +223%, $4.2M) Kubel has quietly been improving and had an .806 OPS with 20 homers. Fair value: $4M New York Mets - Ryan Church (468th, -60%, $800k) Church was limited to just 319 at bats because of injuries and he finished the season with a sub-.800 OPS (.785) for the first time in a full season. Fair value: $1.5M - John Maine (175th, +1,122%, $5.5M) Maine had a 4.18 ERA in 25 starts while striking out 122 batters in 140 innings. Fair value: $5M - Duaner Sanchez (434th, +18%, $1M) Sanchez struck out 44 batters in 58.3 innings and had a 4.32 ERA a year after missing the 2007 season. Fair value: $750k New York Yankees - Melky Cabrera (597th, -11%, $411k) Cabrera went from coveted young Yankee to behind Brett Gardner in the depth chart for some observers. He has taken a step backwards in terms of OBP in each of the past two seasons and his defensive center field, while better than Johnny Damon, is far from stellar considering the offensive production. - Xavier Nady (148th, +90%, $6.35M) Nady hit a career high 25 homers and slugged .510. His play with Pittsburgh was superior to that with the Yankees, though his home run rate did increase. Fair value: $7.5M Oakland Athletics - Justin Duchscherer (145th, +442%, $6.5M) Duchscherer made his second All-Star game, posting a 2.54 ERA and 0.995 WHIP. His strikeout rate has fallen off and the .235 BAbip is unsustainable. Fair value: $5M Philadelphia Phillies - Joe Blanton (143rd, +76%, $6.5M) Blanton was a major innings eater for the fourth consecutive season, but he still can't seem to get his ERA out of the 4.00's. Fair value: $5M - Chad Durbin (347th, +106%, $1.85M) Durbin had a 2.87 ERA and 63 K's in 87.7 innings. Fair value: $1.5M - Cole Hamels (15th, +3,054%, $15.8M) Hamels continues to be one of the best pitchers in the game and he posted career best marks in ERA (3.09), WHIP (1.082) and strikeouts (196). Fair value: $11M - Ryan Howard (131st, -30%, $7M) Howard doesn't do as well in the FIC because of his high strikeout rate, but he had an .882 OPS, which was the lowest of his career. His play down the stretch helped spearhead the Phillies' charge to Ocotber, but he wasn't the serious NL MVP candidate that the media had you believe. Fair value: $9M - Ryan Madson (319th, 57%, $2.2M) Madson had a 3.05 ERA for the second consecutive season while striking out 67 batters in 82.7 innings. Fair value: $2M - Shane Victorino (76th, +1,991%, $10M) Victorino replaced Aaron Rowand in center and had an excellent season, posting an OPS of .799 with 36 steals, 14 homers and eight triples. Fair value: $6M - Jayson Werth (194th, +188%, $4.9M) Werth had a breakthrough season in the power department, slugging .498 with 24 homers in 418 at bats. Fair value: $4.5M Pittsburgh Pirates - Zach Duke (203rd, +1,044%, $4.58M) Duke had a 4.82 ERA, which was an improvement from 2007, but far from that incredible initial promise when he came up in 2005. Fair value: $3M - John Grabow (300th, +120%, $2.5M) Grabow had a 2.84 in 74 appearances, easily his best season. Fair value: $1.5M - Adam LaRoche (255th, -30%, $3.5M) LaRoche had an .841 OPS, as he gets back closer to his 2006 with Atlanta. He also hit 25 homers while playing a solid first base. Fair value: $4.5M - Paul Maholm (90th, +2,138%, $9.5M) Maholm had a surprising 3.71 ERA while striking out 139 batters in 206.3 innings. Fair value: $4M Nate McLouth (19th, +3,547%, $15.5M) McLouth hit .276/.356/.497 with 26 homers and 46 doubles. Fair value: $7M - Tyler Yates (387th, +63%, $1.3M) Yates had a 4.66 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 73.3 innings of work in his first year in Pittsburgh. Fair value: $1M San Diego Padres - Heath Bell (376th, +233%, $1.4M) Bell had a 3.58 ERA and continued his excellent strikeout rate during his second season enjoying the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Fair value: $1.5M Seattle Mariners - Erik Bedard (342nd, -73%, $1.93M) Bedard spent much of 2008 injured, but he still put up solid numbers while he was on the mound, though he wasn't striking out batters at the kind of clip he did in 2007. Fair value: $9.5M - Aaron Heilman (437th, -19%, $975k) Heilman struggled to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and was part of the Mets' much maligned bullpen. Fair value: $1.5M - Felix Hernandez (81st, +1,752%, $10M) Hernandez had a 3.45 ERA and struck out 175 batters in what was a bounce back season in some regards. He is still having difficulties from his command, which is separating him from the true elite. Fair value: $10M San Francisco Giants - Jack Taschner (604th, +2%, $410k Taschner had a 4.88 ERA in 67 specialist appearances, as he hasn't been able to reclaim the stuff that he featured when he made his debut in 2005. Fair value: $750k St. Louis Cardinals - Rick Ankiel (275th, +233%, $3M) In his first full season at the plate, Ankiel hit 25 homers and for an OPS of .843 while playing an inconsistent at best outfield. Fair value: $4M - Chris Duncan (727th, -10%, $395k Duncan's season was limited and when he was healthy he didn't hit the long ball with nearly as much frequency. Fair value: $1.5M - Ryan Ludwick (57th, +2,820%, $12M) Ludwick absolutely busted out in 2008, hitting 37 homers and having an OPS of .966, which allowed him to flirt with Albert Pujols territory in both categories. Though we still don't know if this season was a fluke, his numbers in 2007 were a very respectable .818 in 303 at bats. Fair value: $7M - Todd Wellemeyer (82nd, +900%, $10M Wellemeyer had a 3.71 ERA in his first full season with the Cardinals. He has bounced around a lot, but has seemed to settle in with the Cardinals. Fair value: $6M Tampa Bay Rays - Willy Aybar (516th, +18%, $475k) Aybar hit for an OPS of .737 while bouncing all around the diamond for the Rays. Fair value: $600k - Jason Bartlett (584th, +0%, $415k) Bartlett continues to look outmatched for shortstop and he hit .286/.329/.361 at the plate. Fair value: $700k - Dioner Navarro (378th, +239%, $1.4M) Navaro made his first All-Star game, hitting for an OPS of .756 while playing a very good catcher. Fair value: $3M Texas Rangers - Marlon Byrd (193rd, +174%, $4.93M) Byrd has unsurprisingly thoroughly enjoyed Arlington, hitting for an OPS over .800 in each of his two seasons in the Lonestar State. Fair value: $5.5M - Frank Francisco (360th, +317%, $1.63M) Francisco had a 3.13 ERA while striking out a very impressive 83 batters in 63.3 innings/ Fair value: $2.5M - C.J. Wilson (256th, +738%, $3.5M) Wilson struggled in the Rangers' closer role, posting a 6.02 ERA, though he did have a respectable strikeout rate. Fair value: $2M Toronto Blue Jays - Jeremy Accardo (874th, -1%, 390k) Accardo spent much of the season injured and had a 6.57 ERA one season after saving 30 games and having a 2.14 ERA. Fair value: $1M Washington Nationals - Scott Olsen (130th, +1,711%, $7.3M) Olsen's strikeout rate continued to decline, though he improved his ERA from 5.81 in 2007 to 4.20 in 2008. Fair value: $3.5M - Josh Willingham (291st, +579%, $2.75M) Willingham had an OPS over .800 for the third consecutive season and kind of appears to have hit a plateau in his career. Fair value: $3.5M - Ryan Zimmerman (423rd, +115%, $1M) Zimmerman was limited to just 106 games and he hit .283/.333/.442. He continues to have the bad fortune of playing for a bad team in parks that don't favor hitters. Fair value: $3M