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A Look At Some Statistical Anomalies

By Andrew Perna

The third week of the Major League Baseball season is in the books, giving us some solid data to review. The first tenth of the season means a lot, and a little, at the same time. A poor start can hamper numbers over the course of the entire season if they are that drastic, but there is still plenty of time left to erase a slow beginning entirely.

On April 18, 2013, the Los Angeles Dodgers had a -14 run differential, sat fourth in the National League West and were in the midst of a four-game losing streak. The Colorado Rockies, meanwhile, were 11-4, with a +26 differential and six-straight wins. By the end of the season, the Dodgers won the division by 11 games and the Rockies finished 74-88. The first three weeks of the season essentially meant nothing in that division.

The Boston Red Sox, the eventual World Series champions, were 11-4 last April 18 and already in control of the American League East. Not much changed there.

Numbers, no matter how much they may change, are always fun to look at, especially when it comes to baseball. Here is a look at a statistical anomaly for each team.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Injuries have really hurt Arizona’s starting rotation. They have received just two quality starts from the staff after getting 87 a year ago.

Atlanta Braves

Fresh off a new contract, Freddie Freeman is on pace to hit 43 home runs. His previous career-high is 23.

Baltimore Orioles

Chris Davis has more stolen bases (2) than home runs (1). He entered the season with 11 career steals and a combined 86 home runs over the last two years.

Boston Red Sox

Daniel Nava is hitting .130/.242/.259 after a breakout 2013 season in which he had a .303/.385/.445 slash line.

Chicago Cubs

At 28, Emilio Bonifacio is hitting .339 with a .771 OPS. For his career, he has marks of .264 and .665.

Chicago White Sox

Alexei Ramirez has been extremely valuable to the White Sox this month. In addition to a sparking .381/.426/.635 slash line, he has already contributed 1.2 WAR to his team. He’s halfway to the 2.5 WAR he had last season.

Cincinnati Reds

Joey Votto’s numbers project out to 41 homers and 111 walks this season. He had 24 dingers and 135 BBs in 2013.

Cleveland Indians

David Murphy is slugging .535 in 13 games for the Indians. In his career, which spans 862 games, he has a .442 slugging percentage.

Colorado Rockies

In his first full season in the National League, Justin Morneau is hitting .346/.386/.538. Over the course of the 2013 season, with the Twins and Pirates, he hit .259/.323/.411.

Detroit Tigers

After knocking in 137 runs last season, Miguel Cabrera is on pace for 81 RBIs.

Houston Astros

Jason Castro is hitting .213, well below his .253 career mark, and he’s on pace to nearly double his home run total from 2013 (18).

Kansas City Royals

Salvador Perez is on pace to hit 81 doubles this season. He had 49 over his previous 253 games.

Los Angeles Angels

Raul Ibanez has surpassed 100 RBIs four times in his career, but not since the 2008 season. He projects out to have 130 RBI at 41.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Juan Uribe has contributed 1.2 WAR to the Dodgers, the second-highest total in the Majors. Over the course of 148 games with the Giants in 2010, he had 1.3.

Miami Marlins

Giancarlo Stanton is averaging .069 walks per plate appearance. That’s nearly half his career mark and significantly lower than his .147 BB/PA in 2013.

Milwaukee Brewers

The starting rotation has been strong over the first three weeks. Milwaukee’s ERA has dropped more than a full run (3.84 to 2.73) from last season.

Minnesota Twins

Brian Dozier five home runs through his first 15 games. The infielder had a total of 24 home runs in his first two Major League seasons. After hitting a home run every 52.7 at-bats in 2012, Dozier is hitting them at a 11.6 clip in 2014.

New York Mets

With a healthy Matt Harvey, the Mets had a 3.77 ERA last season. With their ace sidelined, the mark has jumped to 4.33.

New York Yankees

After posting a .683 OPS during their disappointing 2013 season, the Yankees lead baseball with a .783 mark behind Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury and Alfonso Soriano.

Oakland Athletics

Jed Lowrie has a career .337 OBP, but has gotten on base nearly half of the time (.477) with the Athletics through 15 games.

Philadelphia Phillies

Chase Utley is hitting .462/.517/.769 through 58 plate appearances. Over the last four seasons, Utley, who has dealt with knee issues, hit .270/.361/.446 in 432 games.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pedro Alvarez has struck out 6.3 times for every home run in his career, but that figure is down to just 2.7 in the early going.

San Diego Padres

This might actually stick, but Andrew Cashner’s 1.27 ERA in his first four starts is nearly three times lower than his career mark of 3.35.

San Francisco Giants

Bruce Bochy’s club has a 4.06 K/BB ratio, the best rate in baseball, after ranking 22nd (2.41) in 2013.

Seattle Mariners

Robinson Cano is slugging .356 in his first 59 at-bats with the Mariners. He had a .504 slugging percentage in 5,791 plate appearances with the Yankees.

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Carpenter led all players with 55 doubles in 2013, but has yet to hit a two-bagger.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays had a .737 OPS and .257 batting average last season, but are hitting just .221 with a .659 OPS in 2014.

Texas Rangers

Prince Fielder has contributed -0.9 WAR in his first few weeks as a member of the Rangers. He has had at least 1.3 WAR in each of his seven previous seasons, including 6.0 to the Brewers in 2009.

Toronto Blue Jays

Edwin Encarnacion who had the third-most home runs (36) in the Major Leagues in 2013, has yet to hit one this season. He averaged 14.7 AB/HR last year and led baseball with a 12.9 average in 2012.

Washington Nationals

The pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA, but averages 10.22 strikeouts per nine innings. The Nationals had one of the best ERAs (3.59) in baseball last season, but struck out 7.69 per nine.


MLB Rankings For The Week Beginning April 14

By RealGM Staff Report

The Opsera is a statistic RealGM Executive Editor Chris Reina created in order to objectively rank teams by how well they hit (OPS) and pitch (ERA). 

In order to determine the Opsera rating for each, we take their OPS, multiply that number by 10 to move the decimal point over one place to the right and then subtract their ERA from that number.  

All statistics are through Sunday, April 13.

Rankings from the end of the 2013 regular season are in parenthesizes.

1. (17) Milwaukee Brewers – 5.71

It's no surprise the Brewers hold the top spot in our first rankings of the season. They've won nine straight, including 6-0 on the road, and have the lowest ERA (1.80) in baseball.

2. (7) Oakland Athletics – 4.89

Sonny Gray has a 0.95 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 19 innings pitched (three starts).

3. (3) Atlanta Braves – 4.67

A long-term deal hasn't ruined Freddie Freeman's drive. He's hitting .442/.519/.814 with four home runs and 10 RBI through 12 games.

4. (4) Los Angeles Dodgers – 4.23

Zack Greinke is nice to have when Clayton Kershaw is hurting. The right-hander has a 2.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 21 strikeouts in 16.1 innings (three starts).

5. (11) Washington Nationals – 4.22

All five of Washington's losses have come against Atlanta in the early going.

6. (27) Seattle Mariners – 3.88

Robinson Cano has the Mariners in contention -- for now. The second baseman is hitting .333/.417/.381 without a home run in 11 games.

7. (20) San Francisco Giants – 3.82

The Giants have a .751 OPS, good for eighth in the game. Brandon Belt's five home runs (.577 slugging) have paced the offense.

T8. (10) Tampa Bay Rays – 3.56

If they decide to trade David Price, Chris Archer may be ready to assume his place atop the rotation. The young righty has a 1.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 11 strikeouts in 13 innings.

-- (16) Los Angeles Angels – 3.56

Pujols has three home runs after hitting just 17 all of last season, but he still has a troubling slash line .240/.309/.500.

10. (1) Detroit Tigers – 3.54

Rajai Davis has been an underrated addition to the Tigers. He has five steals for the slow-footed club and is hitting .345/.412/.448 in eight games.

11. (26) Philadelphia Phillies – 3.47

12. (8) Pittsburgh Pirates – 3.45

13. (23) New York Yankees – 3.44

14. (5) Cincinnati Reds – 3.43

15. (19) Toronto Blue Jays – 3.33

16. (29) Miami Marlins – 3.30

17. (2) Boston Red Sox – 3.19

18. (18) Colorado Rockies – 3.15

19. (T24) San Diego Padres – 3.13

20. (12) Kansas City Royals – 2.78

21. (6) St. Louis Cardinals – 2.77

22. (T24) Chicago White Sox – 2.68

23. (13) Cleveland Indians – 2.67 

24. (9) Texas Rangers – 2.58

25. (21) Chicago Cubs – 2.50

26. (15) Baltimore Orioles – 2.38

27. (28) Minnesota Twins – 1.95

28. (30) Houston Astros – 1.80

29. (22) New York Mets – 1.13

30. (14) Arizona Diamondbacks – 1.12

 

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AL West: How Will The Division Be Won?

By Andrew Perna

What seemed like a potential three-team race for the division title turned into a relative laugher as the Athletics took the crown in 2013. In winning their second-straight AL West title, the A’s helped bring embarrassment to the high-priced rosters of the Rangers and Angels. Texas has shuffled their roster, while Los Angeles is hoping Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton will produce as they were expected to when they signed nine-figure contracts. 

Oakland Athletics

Billy Beane didn't tinker much with his offense, happy with a core that produced the third-highest OPS (.745) in the Major Leagues last season. The A's may not have huge names, but they get the job done. Four players finished 2013 with between 3.6 and 6.5 oWAR. The pitching staff was strong as well (3.56 ERA, good for seventh), but the group is now significantly different. Bartolo Colon is in New York, Jarrod Parker will miss the season following Tommy John surgery and they have a new closer in Jim Johnson.

Key Additions (2013 Stats):

Jim Johnson: 2.94 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 56 Ks in 70.1 IP

Eric O'Flaherty: 2.50 ERA, 0.944 WHIP, 11 Ks in 18 IP

Craig Gentry: .280/.373/.386 with 2 HRs, 22 RBIs in 287 PAs

Scott Kazmir: 4.04 ERA, 1.323 WHIP, 162 Ks in 158 IP

Texas Rangers

After employing a top-two offense in 2011 and 2012, the Rangers took a step back at the plate. They ranked ninth in OPS (.735) and eighth in runs scored (4.48 per game) and home runs (176). As a result they went out and acquired Prince Fielder from the Tigers and signed Shin-Soo Choo to a $130 million deal. The Yu Darvish-led rotation, however, won't be as strong as it was a year ago.

 Key Additions (2013 Stats):

J.P. Arencibia: .194/.227/.365 with 21 HRs, 55 RBIs in 497 PAs

Shin-Soo Choo: .285/.423/.462 with 21 HRs, 54 RBIs in 712 PAs

Prince Fielder: .279/.362/.457 with 25 HRs, 106 RBIs in 712 PAs

Tommy Hanson: 5.42 ERA, 1.548 WHIP, 56 Ks in 73 IP

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels were an above-average offensive team in 2013, largely because of Mike Trout's otherworldly talents. Regular production from Josh Hamilton (.250/.307/.432) or Albert Pujols (.258/.330/.437 in just 99 games) would have catapulted them to among the game's best. Hamilton and Pujols make L.A. one of the hardest to forecast teams in baseball. If they improve, the Angels could challenge the A's and Rangers. If they continue to disappoint, you can forget meaningful games in the second half of the season.

Key Additions (2013 Stats):

Joe Smith: 2.29 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, 54 Ks in 63 IP

Raul Ibanez: .242/.306/.487 with 29 HRs, 65 RBIs in 496 PAs

David Freese: .262/.340/.381 with 9 HRs, 60 RBIs in 521 PAs

Yorvit Torrealba: .240/.295/.285 with 0 HRs, 16 RBIs in 196 PAs

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners haven't finished with a winning record since 2009 and it has been 13 years since they tasted the playoffs. Those droughts may not change in 2014, but there seems to at least be a light at the end of the tunnel. Seattle made a splash when they signed Robinson Cano away from the Yankees, but they also made nice complementary additions in Corey Hart and Fernando Rodney. If the young pitching comes along quickly, the AL West will become even more intriguing.

Key Additions (2013 Stats):

Corey Hart: .270/.334/.507 with 30 HRs, 83 RBIs in 622 PAs (2012)

Robinson Cano: .314/.383/.516 with 27 HRs, 107 RBIs in 681 PAs

Logan Morrison: .242/.333/.375 with 6 HRs, 36 RBIs in 333 PAs

Fernando Rodney: 3.38 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, 82 Ks in 66.2 IP

Houston Astros

Houston was among the worst teams offensively and defensively last season, leaving almost no place to go but up. There has been some excitement among those blessed with long-term vision, but too much eagerness at this point is a mistake. This division is deep and all the smart draft picks and signings Jeff Luhnow has made will have to work in order for the Astros to fully right the ship.

Key Additions (2013 Stats):

Dexter Fowler: .263/.369/.407 with 12 HRs, 42 RBIs, 19 SBs in 492 PAs

Scott Feldman: 4.27 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 65 Ks in 90.2 IP

Chad Qualls: 2.61 ERA, 1.226 WHIP, 49 Ks in 62 IP

Jesse Crain: 0.74 ERA, 1.145 WHIP, 46 Ks in 36.2 IP

How We Think They'll Stack Up:

1. Rangers: Pitching will be their downfall in October, but they'll win a tight race.

2. Angels: A bump in production from Pujols/Hamilton is enough to flirt with a Wild Card.

3. Athletics: The loss of Parker and a dip in overall pitching will deny them a third-straight division title.

4. Mariners: Cano will help improve on 71 wins, but third-place is their ceiling. Fourth is more likely.

5. Astros: They will at least be more fun to watch as the core comes together.

 

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