Johan Santana and CC Sabathia will be inextricably linked over the next six or seven seasons as the hired southpaw guns of New York City. Their costs are fairly similar with Sabathia receiving $161 million over seven years and Santana receiving $137.5 over six seasons. The Mets also had to send Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra to the Twins, none of which look like they will be the next Hanley Ramirez (1), but they also were able to use Johan on every fifth day during the 2008 season while CC was taking Milwaukee back to the playoffs. Because the Yankees subsequently signed Mark Teixeira, the Brewers will get their second round pick instead of a first, so the real cost in Sabathia is the exorbitant pricetag. Santana and Sabathia have been the best two pitchers in baseball over the past two seasons (2), but $298.5 million still doesn't buy what it once did; just ask Gore Verbinski, who needed that much in order to make 'Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End'. Which of these two pitchers will be the better long-term investment and can either give as good of a return as the $900M POTC3 grossed worldwide? (3) The Heretofore There is really little doubt that Santana has been the better and more consistent pitcher throughout their respective careers. Santana is currently the third best pitcher of all-time in terms ERA+ (4) and Sabathia is 68th, so this comparison is akin to deciding between Al Pacino and Clint Eastwood in 1978; but this article is about which pitcher will age better and so the analogous question is who has had the better body of work since 1978 between Pacino and Eastwood? The caveat to Santana's ERA+ ranking is that he wasn't a full time starter until 2004, so here is how their stats compare between 2004 and 2008 amongst starters with at least 800 innings: ERA+, ERA, WHIP, K/9 rate Santana: 162 (1st), 2.74 (1st), 1.020 (1st), 9.43 (2nd) Sabathia: 129 (8th), 3.43 (7th), 1.194 (7th), 7.75 (11th) Between 2004 and 2008, Santana has the second, eighth, 11th, 17th and 70th best single seasons in terms of ERA+. Sabathia has the 10th, 37th and 42nd, 232nd and 242nd best single seasons during that timeframe. The Present Santana has been as flawless as any pitcher that doesn't have the initials Z.G. to begin the 2009 season and has been possibly better than Z.G., at least SWHIP suggests it. Sabathia has been undeniably erratic in his first handful of starts with the Yankees. He has been brilliant (complete game shutout against the Orioles, 7.2 scoreless innings at Kansas City) and has been indisputably mortal (six earned runs on Opening Day and against Oakland). His home/road ERA splits are 5.21/3.10 and it appears as though ERA+ will become imperative to judging Sabathia due to how hitter friendly Yankee Stadium has been playing. He famously was bad last April as well, posting a 7.76 ERA, but he also struck out 26 batters in 26.2 innings and then went on to be the best pitcher in the game during the second half (5). He simply was getting shelled and wasn't making batters miss enough. This April he had a 4.73 ERA, which is of course significantly better, but he struck out just 19 batters in 32.1 innings (6). Pitchers that don't strike out close to one batter per inning are not usually paid $20 million or more per season, unless you play the guitar and pitch for the Giants (7). The Future Santana is 15 months older than Sabathia, so they will play out their seven-year deals (8) at the exact same age. Since Santana lives on the effectiveness of his Mr. Blonde change-up, I?m a little concerned with the velocity of his fastball since it has been dipping at a fairly alarming rate. He was throwing consistently in the mid-90?s as recently as late 2007 and now he tops out at about 92, which is a significant drop and weakens the change as that MPH gap between pitches narrows. He typically bring his four-seam fastball in at 90 MPH and the two-seamer, which he'll only throw about a dozen times per start, is usually in the mid to high 80s. CC?s K/9 rate increased by one from ?07 to ?08, while Johan?s has decreased by nearly two; that?s directly related to Johan's decrease in velocity. This is distressing evidence, as is that elbow, even though Santana's K/9 rate has climbed back up over 10 early in 2009. Sabathia will be 36 when his seven-year contract is up and there?s really no reason to think he?ll begin to decline in a significant way by then, especially since he is fastball/slider, instead of fastball, change. These two pitchers are similar in the sense that they are dominant lefties of roughly the same age, but they have very different body types and that's why I feel Sabathia will be the better value in the second half of his deal with the Yankees than Santana. Since 1961, these pitchers have had the best runs (in order of ERA+) between the ages of 30 and 36. Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Greg Maddux, Bob Gibson, David Cone, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, John Tudor, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Gaylord Perry, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Whitey Ford, Phil Niekro, Jimmy Key, Al Leiter, Jim Palmer, Tommy John, Tom Candiotti and Bert Blyleven at lucky 21. Here is the list between the ages of 33 and 36: Johnson, Brown, Clemens, Maddux, Schilling, Cone, Gibson, Perry, Carlton, Ford, Niekro, Jim Bunning, Dennis Martinez, Jamie Moyer, Glavine, Candiotti, John, Derek Lowe, Blyleven, Doyle Alexander, Jim Bibby. Here is who is left when you look at 36 until their arm falls off with at least 900 innings: Johnson, Clemens, Martinez, Rick Reuschel, Nolan Ryan, Tom Glavine, Phil Niekro, Maddux, Seaver, Perry, Tim Wakefield, Charlie Hough, Moyer, Jerry Koosman, David Wells, Kenny Rogers, Warren Spahn, Tommy John, Don Sutton, Carlton and Joe Niekro. There are a few trends that jump out at me looking at the third pairing: 1. A lot of knuckleballers (both Niekros, Wakefield and Hough), which shouldn't be surprising. 2. A lot of lefties. 3. A lot of good nicknames. 4. A lot of big-bodied pitchers. The Big Unit and Nolan Ryan were both complete freaks of nature and the Rocket allegedly used PEDs, so we can throw all three out of the equation. Rick Reuschel was nicknamed Big Daddy and he started an All-Star game at 40, where he delivered Bo Jackson one of his signature moments. Boomer closely resembles Sabathia in stature and probably had his best season at the age of 37. Spahn, Glavine and Moyer are roughly the same size as Santana, but none were ever excellent strikeout pitchers, relying on finesse and hitting the outside corner. Carlton and Tommy John were both bigger lefties like Sabathia and I don't know what to do with Rogers since he was smaller but not exactly the fittest of pitchers. Sabathia has been extremely durable and should continue to hit the low 90s into his mid to late 30s as the other big pitchers did, which allowed them to continue their effectiveness while not possessing the best pure stuff. Shorter pitchers are more prone to losing their velocity earlier in their careers and the ones that were successful in their mid to late 30s had pinpoint command and multiple dominant pitches. Pedro Martinez was virtually done at 33 because his arm broke down and even though he is the best pitcher of all-time (9) with four amazing pitches, he lost his effectiveness. Compare Martinez to his old Boston teammate Derek Lowe, who also became a free agent after the 2004 season. Lowe signed with the Dodgers for $36 over four-years, while Pedro got $53 million over the same period. Lowe and Martinez are 10th and 11th respectively during that timeframe in ERA+ amongst pitchers over the age of 30, but the cheaper Lowe made 64 more starts, which almost amounts to two whole seasons. Lowe signed a $60 million deal over four years this past winter, almost doubling his value at 36 from where it was at 32, while Pedro can't get a team to commit to him for his own magic number of $5 million for one season. No pitcher has the kind of success Santana has had without being more than a 94 MPH fastball and a undetectable 80 MPH change, but I do believe his numbers will decline in direct correlation to the drop in MPH of his fastball. The gap between Santana and Sabathia is noticeably wide in the current season, but has closed over the past two and I expect Sabathia to be the better pitcher during the final two or three seasons of their current contracts. Notes (1) Ramirez was dealt along with Ricky Nolasco to Florida for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. It is clearly one of the greatest 'both sides win' deals in history. (2) Santana has a 157 ERA+ since 2007, while Sabathia's sits at 148. (3) In other words, can Santana and Sabathia win starts in late October? (4) Though that number would comedown as his career extends beyond his prime. (5) Sabathia had a 1.56 ERA in 115.2 innings after the All-Star break, compared to 2.17 ERA in 107.2 innings for Santana. (6) Sabathia's K/9 rate has improved in May and not surprisingly his ERA has fallen similarly. (7) Barry Zito's $126 million contract over seven years after the 2006 season made the work for Santana and Sabathia's respective agents all the more easier. (8) Santana signed a six-year deal with the Mets, but pitched the 2008 season with a carryover contract from the Twins. (9) Pedro Martinez has the best lifetime SWHIP and the best ERA+.