| Jason Follain. 2nd February, 2011 - 8:38 pm
 Per baseball-reference.com, a team?s Pythagorean record is what you would expect a team?s regular season record to be given the aggregate number of runs it scored as well as the number of runs it allowed over the course of a season. At season?s end, this gives us an idea of the teams that may have underachieved or simply were a tad unlucky. Pythagorean records can be extremely close to actual record, believe it or not. In fact, 25 of 30 Major League teams? Pythagorean records were within 3 or less wins of their actual record.
The Red Birds only won 86 games in 2010, a season in which virtually every prognosticator predicted them to run away with the division. This opened the door for the Cincinnati Reds to break through with their young talent and reach the playoffs for the first time in 15 years. However, had St. Louis performed in accordance with their Pythagorean record, they would have won 92 games and ended the season atop the division by one game. Armed with one of the best starting rotations in the National League, there is reason to believe that the Cardinals will bounce back in 2011.
What Went Wrong
As blasphemous as this may sound, I think it bears a mention that the great Albert Pujols actually had a down year by his standards in 2010. Yes, he was the runner-up in MVP voting and he did indeed have a great season. However, it is not too much of a reach to say that he had his worst season since 2002, his second at the major league level. Now, it may be nitpicking, but having Pujols at his best is surely to improve the offense as a whole, and I think it is safe to say that Pujols will be at his best in 2011 given his contract status as a potential free agent.
Pujols has given the Cardinals a deadline of the beginning of spring training to agree to an extension and has also declared that he will indeed invoke his right to veto any trade proposal this season. As a result, the next few weeks should have Cardinals fans biting their fingernails waiting to see if their franchise icon will remain with the only club he?s ever known. If he doesn?t sign by the time pitchers and catchers report, it appears as if Phat Albert will be testing the free agent waters for the first time following the 2011 season.
Even though the Cardinals do possess a formidable 1-2-3 punch at the top of their starting rotation, their fourth and fifth starters were a constant source of frustration. A bevy of starters tried to fill these roles, most of which to no avail. Brad Penny was signed to prior to the 2010 season and only started nine games before he went down with an injury that sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Kyle Lohse did not earn his paycheck either, having produced a 6.55 ERA in his 18 starts while walking just under 3.5 batters per nine innings. Jeff Suppan, Blake Hawksworth, P.J. Walters and Adam Attavino were also not the answer to the problem, as they combined to start 27 games with less than stellar results.
What Should Change in 2011>
When the middle of your lineup consists of Pujols, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and Cody Rasmus, there shouldn?t be any problem scoring runs in the upcoming season. Having finished 2010 with the seventh best OPS in the NL, the addition of Berkman, a ?bounce-back? from Pujols, a step forward from Rasmus and a typically well-rounded season from Holliday should have the Cardinals back near the top of the offensive leaderboards in 2011.
The back of the rotation, which actually was addressed by the acquisition of Jake Westbrook towards the end of the 2010 season, can?t help but be improved. Westbrook came in and delivered 3.48 ERA while lasting into the seventh inning on average in his 12 starts with the team after being acquired at the trade deadline. He was rewarded for his efforts with a two year contract shortly after the season ended. With Westbrook eating innings and Kyle Lohse shedding some of the bad luck he endured in 2010 (he had the highest BABIP of any starter in baseball as well as the second lowest left on base percentage, both indicators of the cosmos not working in your favor), the back end of the rotation should perform much better in 2011, barring injury. |
