| Jason Follain. 3rd May, 2010 - 1:09 pm
 There has been a lot of talk around the baseball universe concerning the Ryan Howard extension and the ripple effect it will have on a number of subjects. Among these topics is how the dollar amount will affect the market for first baseman approaching free agency, the effect on the Phillie payroll for years to come and the ability of the Phillies to re-sign Jayson Werth, among other things. While many baseball people have assumed Werth will test the free agent waters, I?m not so sure that is in the Phillies? best interest.
Philadelphia absolutely has a logjam in their outfield that they will need to make a decision on in the offseason. The two most discussed options that most believe will happen are one, simply letting Werth walk and having top prospect Domonic Brown take over as the opening day right fielder in 2011, and two, attempting to trade left fielder Raul Ibanez, re-signing Werth and shifting him to the opposite outfield corner position. Since option two might prove to be extremely difficult given the contract that Ibanez possesses, one would have to assume that it is an unlikely scenario. That leaves option one.
When everyone is healthy, the way the current Phillies lineup is as follows:
Rollins SS
Polanco 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Werth RF
Ibanez LF
Victorino CF
Ruiz C
National League pitchers have nightmares about this lineup. If the aforementioned option one is what occurs this offseason, the 2011 lineup will presumably look like this:
Rollins SS
Polanco 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Ibanez LF
Victorino CF
Brown RF
Ruiz C
If Domonic Brown busts out in a big way, he would undoubtedly be moved up, but let?s go with the assumption that this is what the lineup would be. Even super prospect Jason Heyward started the 2010 season in the seven hole.
I believe there is a different option that no one seems to be discussing as a legitimate possibility. Is there something about Shane Victorino that I am not aware of? Why is the Flyin? Hawaiian not being discussed as a trade candidate? It seems to me that a slugger of Werth?s caliber is someone whom a general manager would want to explore every possible way to retain in the interest of due diligence. While conventional wisdom and simplicity suggest that substituting Brown for Werth would be the way to go, there are several other factors that are worth considering. It seems as if, during Werth?s emergence as one of the National League?s premier sluggers, he has been pigeonholed into the right field position. What people are forgetting is that, as recent as 2008, Werth started 26 games in center field for the Phillies. Furthermore, he is more than capable of playing the position at a high level. While it is not a terribly big sample size, in 562 plus innings in his career (the equivalent of roughly 62 full games), he has posted a 17.1 UZR/150. Most players who are considered versatile outfielders able to play all three positions have a much lower UZR in the center compared to the corner positions. Marlon Byrd, Scott Podsednik and, ironically, Victorino are all good examples of this tendency. Werth actually has a better UZR/150 in center field than in left and right. I will concede that Werth appears to have bulked up in recent years, which presumably would negatively affect his ability to patrol center. However, to the naked eye, his defense hasn?t suffered as a result of his bulkier build in recent seasons.
Another factor in the decision of which outfielders to run out there in 2011 is one involving the supposed root of all evil. Domonic Brown will be making the major league minimum next season. With all of the cash the Philadelphia has doled out in recent years, it will be a welcome addition if they can find a productive youngster to plug into their lineup whose annual salary doesn?t end in the word ?million.?
Victorino signed an extension this offseason that covered all of his arbitration years and bought out one free agent year. The deal pays him $7.5 million next season and $9.5 million in 2012. In comparison, it is safe to assume that Werth will sign a contract for at least $13 million annually for three plus years. In the two years that Victorino is under contract past this one, that is a difference in salary of at least $9 million, $4.5 million per season. If the Phillies deem the difference in cost to be worth the upgrade from Victorino to Werth, as well as the return in trade that Victorino would provide, re-signing Werth and dealing Victorino might be the most prudent course of action.
For what it?s worth, Jamie Moyer and his $6.5 million come off the books after this season. While we?re at it, how bad does the Brad Lidge extension look right now? He is being paid $11.5 million for his services this season and is guaranteed the same salary next year, all while not having yet thrown a pitch in the 2010 campaign. Lidge?s comeback from one of the worst seasons from a closer in recent memory is not getting off to a promising start, but I digress.
So, you might be asking, what is the whole point of this exercise? I?m glad you asked, because this brings us back to the original conundrum: the composition of the most feared lineup in the National League. By now, you probably have deduced that I believe the Phillies should explore the trade market for their current center fielder with the goal of fielding a 2011 opening day lineup as follows:
Rollins SS
Polanco 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Werth CF
Ibanez LF
Brown RF
Ruiz C
There are three primary reasons on which I base this theory. One, Victorino is better served batting out of the leadoff or two hole. Batting him sixth is a misuse of his skill set. A team looking for a legitimate leadoff hitter/center fielder might be willing to pay a little more of a premium in trade to pry Victorino loose. Two, taking a right-handed hitter in Werth out of the five spot in the lineup and replacing him with the left-handed Ibanez or Brown leaves the Phillies with the heart of their lineup comprised of all lefties. This is a rarity, not to mention a possible late-inning issue against a tough southpaw on the mound who makes a living sending left-handed hitters back to the bench. Three, despite Jayson Werth?s slugging ways, he is an outstanding defensive outfielder and, more specifically, a competent center fielder who would likely become one of the more valuable two way players in the game. It is likely that the Phillies have been bracing for Werth?s departure with a specific plan of action and this was an exercise in futility. However, when the 2010 season concludes, it will be interesting to see what happens with the talented quartet of Phillies outfielders. |
