| Jason Follain. 26th April, 2010 - 11:42 am
 One of the biggest questions to ponder this offseason that would greatly affect the outcome of the 2010 National League West race was whether or not the San Francisco Giants would be able to significantly upgrade their offense enough to challenge for the division title. Buoyed by a pitching staff that finished the 2009 season ranked second in all of baseball with a 3.55 ERA, it was a commonly held notion that if the Giants were able to provide league average offense, their dreams of snatching the division title away from their arch-nemesis Dodgers and the very talented Rockies could stand a chance of becoming reality.
The Giants? 2009 offense was nothing short of dreadful. The numbers were astoundingly bad. Out of 16 NL teams, San Francisco ranked last in OBP, 14th in SLG, last in OPS, 13th in runs and 15th in home runs.
One category that the Giant did lead the NL in last season was number of swing-from-your-backside hackers in the lineup. San Francisco ended up dead last in a statistical category that has grown to be perceived by many, especially those touting the value of advanced statistics, as one of the most important of all: walks.
The correlation between ability to draw walks and number of runs scored is a very strong one. When comparing the 2009 team totals for these two categories, where a team ranked in walks was a solid indication of where they ranked in runs. For instance, eight out of the 16 NL teams were ranked either the same or within one spot in walks with respect to runs. Here is the breakdown:
Team: BB Rank, Runs Rank, Difference
Rockies: 1, 2, -1
Nationals: 2, 9, -7
Brewers: 3, 3, 0
Dodgers: 4, 4, 0
Braves: 5, 6, -1
Cubs: 6, 10, -4
Phillies: 7, 1, 6
Padres: 8, 15, -7
Diamondbacks: 9, 8, 1
Marlins: 10, 5, 5
Reds: 11, 11, 0
Cardinals: 12, 7, 5
Mets: 13, 12, 1
Pirates: 14, 16, -2
Astros: 15, 14, 1
Giants: 16, 13, 3
As you can see, with only a few exceptions, teams that walked a lot in 2009 tended to score more runs. Obviously, the Giants failed to impress in either category. This is the most glaring deficiency in the Giants? lineup and they resorted to several measures in order to improve upon it in the offseason.
Shortly after the 2009 season ended, the Giants fired hitting coach Carney Lansford and replaced him with in-house candidate Hensley Muelens, who spent 2009 as the hitting coach for San Francisco?s AAA affiliate Fresno Grizzlies. His Grizzlies offense compiled a .337 OBP compared to the Giants?.309. Muelens has vowed to preach patience at the plate for the 2010 season ahead.
At first glance, it seems to be working. Through the first 17 games, San Francisco has compiled a .340 OBP, good for 6th in the NL, and 4.65 runs per game, ranking 4th in the NL. While these are encouraging signs for Giants fans, taking a closer look might not provide the same rosy outlook. The most telling statistic when discussing plate discipline is walk percentage, which is defined as the percentage of plate appearances that resulted in a walk. In the first three weeks of 2010, Giants hitters have walked 8.2% of the time, which is a disappointing 14th in the NL.
While plate discipline is an important factor in an offense producing at the major league level, it is by no means the be-all, end-all of what makes a lineup successful. One of the traits that will make up for an impatient group of hitters is power. The Giants have made tweaks in their lineup in order to improve the thump it provides on a daily basis. While many Giants fans would have loved to see them make a big splash in the free agent market for a legitimate middle of the order bat, the contracts awarded to the likes of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday seemed to be a little rich for their blood.
Instead, GM Brian Sabean decided to spread the available money in the budget across the lineup rather than significantly upgrade at one spot. The cleanup spot, which was manned in large part by Bengie Molina for the past two seasons, was awarded to offseason acquisition Aubrey Huff. The Giants? new first baseman had by far the worst season of his career in 2009 and they are hoping he will bounce back to his 2000-2008 form that resulted in a .827 OPS. So far, while he has been doing his part in the plate discipline department, posting a .342 OBP, his power has yet to surface on a consistent basis. If this keeps up, San Francisco might try to juggle the lineup by either giving some of the starts at first to Travis Ishikawa, who presumably would provide similar offensive production to that of Huff has so far but brings gold glove caliber defense to the table, or moving Pablo Sandoval across the diamond.
Another measure taken by Giants management in the offseason was the signing jack of all trades veteran Mark DeRosa. DeRosa, a quintessential late-bloomer, is one of the select few players in all of MLB who can be considered both a utility man and an everyday player. In his career, DeRosa has played every position on the diamond except catcher and center field. The Giants were hoping that DeRosa would bring some of the power that they so sorely lacked in previous seasons, but it has not yet materialized on the field in 2010. Since hitting a home run in his first game as a Giant, he has produced precisely two extra base hits, both doubles.
Finally, the Giants hope to inject some power into the lineup from one of their myriad options to take a stranglehold on the right field starting gig. The youngster that has the highest ceiling as far as power is concerned is John Bowker. Bowker?s impressive minor league success, especially in 2009, simply has not translated to the big leagues. He was awarded the right field starting job on opening day this season, but has not been able to earn consistent playing time due to a paltry .502 OPS. Anyone who has followed Bowker throughout his professional career will agree that the power potential is there and he is a legitimate threat to bust out at any time. The Giants continue to provide him chances to do so, but manager Bruce Bochy cannot regularly pencil him into the starting lineup unless his production warrants it. Up until now, the Giants? opening day right fielder has not earned that right.
All in all, while the Giants offense does appear to be better than last season, the long term outlook for 2010 doesn?t seem to be all that encouraging. In my estimation, several things need to happen over the next five months for the Giants to challenge the Dodgers and the Rockies for the division title (while the Diamondbacks and Padres appear to be young and improving teams, I don?t believe they are yet ready to compete for an entire season).
First, the offseason acquisitions, Huff and DeRosa, must improve and become steady producers out of the four and five holes in the lineup, respectively. The two of them will need to supply an OBP at a .350+ clip with at least modest power. With AT&T Park not being a hitter?s haven, if this duo can step up and provide between 20 and 25 home runs apiece and a healthy dose of gap power, this should suffice. S
econd, somebody, whether it is John Bowker, Nate Schierholtz or Andres Torres, needs to step up and seize the opportunity to be the starting right fielder. I don?t think Giant fans particularly care who it is, just so long as someone does it in the next couple months.
Third, Aaron Rowand and Freddy Sanchez will need to come back from injury and inject some much-needed life into the lineup. They are two players who are making big money and their production is imperative if the Giants wish to contend this season. Lastly and definitely not least, the Giants must display a penchant for patience at the plate that they have not shown in the past couple seasons. If they are able to wait for their pitch and let the pitches outside the strike zone go, it could prove to be the most significant upgrade of all. |
