| Christopher Reina. 3rd April, 2010 - 8:10 pm
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The Reds' streak of losing seasons ran to nine during the 2009 season and they haven't reached the postseason since 1995, which is still a little staggering to consider since baseball's oldest team dominated the 70s and were always competitive in the 80s culminating in the 1990 World Series.
Cincinnati has always been one of my favorite non-favorite teams and I always enjoy watching their opener and everything that tradition means.
2009 Opsera Finish: 21st
What Happened In The Winter
The Reds had an expensive offseason by becoming the darkhorse to win the Aroldis Chapman derby, signing him to a six-year, $30.25M contract. He may be ready by the second half of 2010, but it left Walt Jocketty with little money leftover to spend on immediate help.
Because of the restructuring of Scott Rolen's contract, the Reds were able to sign Orlando Cabrera in free agency and re-sign Ramon Hernandez.
Cabrera has kind of become the MLB's version of Forest Gump with the frequency of how he always ends up on postseason teams beginning with the 2004 Red Sox, continuing with the Angels for a few seasons, the White Sox in 2008 and Minnesota in 2009. That kind of string of postseason ubiquity isn't lost on a guy like Dusty Baker.
Reds Offensive Preview
The Reds play in a hitter's park and should be much improved offensively in 2010 merely by having a healthier lineup. They were just 13th in the NL in OPS and 11th in runs with a frustrating .318 OBP. Cincinnati committed too many plate appearances to the likes of Willy Tavares, Adam Rosales and Paul Janish, who are of course nightmares at the plate.
Joey Votto has quickly become the life, soul and future of the Cincinnati lineup. He had a .981 OPS, which was third best in the NL during the 2009 season. I am a little concerned about a regression, but even a 100 point regression would mean he is pretty darn productive.
Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen will provide the immediate protection for Votto, but they more importantly need Jay Bruce to deliver on his potential in right field.
Phillips consistently hits for good power and also gives some speed on the bases, but needs to find away to improve on his .329 OBP, which was actually a stark improvement from 2008. By this point in his career, Phillips should be a better hitter on the road if we are to take him seriously as a hitter.
Rolen finished 2009 with an .823 OPS, his first over .800 season since 2006. He has a career OPS of .896 at Great American Ball Park with a homer in every 16.2 at bats, but all of that success came before he actually donned a Reds uniform and patrolling Chris Sabo's old position.
Bruce, meanwhile, improved his homer rate in 2009 but did very little else to develop as a hitter and his OBP dropped from .314 to a horrible .303. Unsurprisingly, Bruce struggled against lefties when it came to total production (.643 versus .825 against righties), but his OBP was actually a little better .313/.299. He is a GABP product with home/away splits of .914/.635. He is younger than Phillips, but he'll also need to begin hitting on the road at least a little bit and a road OBP of .258 is completely inexcusable regardless of where you're playing.
Drew Stubbs is a promising young centerfielder, who had a promising run as a late season call-up. As is the case with a lot of these Reds, his home/away splits are troubling (.997/.548).
Ramon Hernandez was injured for half of the 2009 season, but is clearly now a below .725 OPS hitter.
It is a little funny seeing Cabrera back in the NL after all of these AL years because I feel he's always been better suited for that style of play. His OBP should rebound back to his 2006-08 levels in 2010.
Left field is in a state of flux with Jonny Gomes and Chris Dickerson likely to share at bats.
Defensively, the Reds were very strong in 2009 and should be about as good in 2010 in that area.
Reds Pitching Preview
The Reds have the potential to have an excellent pitching staff with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo being the innings eatings vets and Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto having tremendous upside.
We don't know when Edison Volquez will be healthy again, but the potential of him leading a rotation that also features Chapman, Bailey and Cueto could become the best in baseball if they all find a way to click.
In the meantime, Harang will have to be the pitcher he was between 2005 and 2007. His 2009 was far better than 2008, but he has clearly become more hittable over the last few seasons and more prone to the long ball.
Arroyo had a 3.84 ERA, but FIP had him at 4.78 in 2009.
Bailey, the seventh overall pick in 2004, began to have a little more major league success than he did during his first two cups of coffee in 2007 and 2008. He had a 4.53 ERA and 6.8 K/9 rate, but he had a 4.1 BB/9 rate and 1.0 HR/9 rate. Bailey finished extremely strong, with a 2.08 ERA in seven September starts while his K/9 rate hit 8.7.
Cueto pitched just over 170 innings for the second consecutive season and though his K/9 rate dropped from 8.2 to 6.9, his ERA improved from 4.81 to 4.41.
Justin Lehr will keep Chapman's slot in the rotation warm for him while he gets a little Triple-A seasoning.
The Reds don't have a dominant bullpen by any stretch of the imagination, but Francisco Cordero has become one of the NL's better closers. He is supported by a couple of solid lefties in Arthur Rhodes and Danny Herrera, along with Nick Masset, Jared Burton and Micah Owings.
What Are Their 2010 Chances?
Similar to the Orioles, the Reds are one of those franchises that has been dormant for the past decade, which has hurt baseball. Cincinnati and Baltimore are two of the better baseball towns and have historically had streaks of really good success. Like the Orioles, I think the Reds are on the verge of being a playoff team, but are another season or two away from making their run.
I predict a fourth place finish for the Reds, but I have a high level of confidence in that pick and wouldn't be floored at all if they found themselves in second place at season's end.
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