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2010 Season Preview: Cleveland Indians
Christopher Reina. 2nd April, 2010 - 5:42 pm

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Things have not gone well for the Indians ever since taking a 3-1 lead in the 2007 ALCS, prompting me to go buy a Chief Wahoo hat in a sign of support for all of those great nineties teams that came up a little short and even for that 1954 team that was upset by the Giants.

While the Indians won 81 games in 2008, they won just 65 in 2009, resulting in the firing of Eric Wedge.

2009 Opsera Finish: 26th

What Happened In The Winter

The biggest news of the winter was the announcement that Mark Shaprio will become president of the Indians with Chris Antonetti taking over as general manager at the end of the current season.

By punting on practically the whole offseason, Cleveland signaled that 2010 is not a season in which they plan on being competitive. They will likely continue to sell off their veteran pieces as they did last summer when they dealt away Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez one season shy of their free agency.

Their only real free agent signing was Russell Branyan for a too good to be true price of $2M after he couldn't find a GM to believe in his .867 OPS/31 homer 2009 with Seattle.

Cleveland sent Kelly Shoppach to Tampa Bay for Mitch Talbot, who will be a starter for Manny Acta. They also signed Mike Redmond to back up Lou Marson, who will sooner rather than later make way for Carlos Santana.

Indians Offensive Preview

If the Indians can put together this good of an offense while rebuilding, Shaprio needs to conduct a GM seminar for at least a dozen other teams out there.

It helps of course to have Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo in the heart of it.

I mistakenly predicted an MVP in 2009 for Sizemore, but he was injured and had just a .788 OPS. Even healthy, Sizemore will never reach his truest potential if he can't figure out how to be more effective against lefties with his .309 OBP being inexcusable. Nevertheless, Sizemore will produce at least 75 points higher in terms of OPS in 2010 and could climb over .900 for the second time in his career.

Choo had an .883 OPS in 2009 and was clearly Cleveland's best hitter. He is a legitimate middle of the order hitter and only mandatory service in South Korea's military can really stop him at this point.

Travis Hafner was unable to stay completely healthy, but he at least was productive in the box again with an .826 OPS in 383 plate appearances, up from .628 in 2008. His days of an OPS over 1.000 as it was in 2005 and 2006 are over, but seems settled in the .800 range.

Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta aren't Jeter and A-Rod on the left side of the infield, but they aren't horrible pieces to have. Cabrera hit for a career high OPS of .799 and he finished strong after sitting out most of June with an .825 second half OPS. Peralta, however, is just holding on with a .690 OPS being very bad for a corner infielder. I see him at least being a .330 OBP guy with close to 20 homers and over 30 doubles in 2010.

Matt LaPorta, the piece in the CC Sabathia trade of 2008, will start the season at first for the injured Branyan and will need to get consistent at bats. He had a .750 OPS in 198 big league plate appearances. LaPorta projects to be a 30 homer guy, possibly at a .900 OPS level if he increase his OBP, which was at just .308 in 2009.

Second baseman Luis Valbuena has shown some flashes with the bat, but his .298 OBP in 2009 is problematic and offset pretty good power production.

Indians Pitching Preview

Even with 22 starts from Cliff Lee in 2009, the Indians ranked 13th in the AL in ERA. I don't think there has been a team to have Cy Young award winners in consecutive seasons and then fall off so badly this quickly.

Speaking of falling off quickly, Fausto Carmona went from bad (5.44 ERA in 2008) to worse (6.32 ERA in 2009). He wasn't quite that bad as he had a FIP of 5.36, but he wasn't nearly the same guy who came in fourth in Cy Young voting in 2007.

Cleveland's opening day starter, Jake Westbrook, is coming off Tommy John surgery, which does tell you everything you need to know about the quality of this staff. He has a career ERA of 4.31 and a career WHIP of 1.38, so clearly isn't exactly Bob Feller.

Justin Masterson, who came over from Boston for Martinez, will get a shot at starting. He put up good K/9 numbers in his 10 starts with Cleveland, but his command limited his success.

Rounding out the rotation are David Huff and Talbot.

Kerry Wood was supposed to be the closer, but he will be out at least a couple of months, which leaves the unproven Chris Perez as the closer. He has 110 strikeouts in 98.2 innings and has actually looked good in Spring. The Indians will also have Joe Smith, Tony Sipp and Jensen Lewis in relief work.

What Are Their 2010 Chances?

The Indians will likely win more than the 65 games they won in 2009 due to the strength of their offense, but returning to contention won't happen until they rebuild their pitching staff. Their best prospects coming up through the pipeline are hitters in Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall, but perhaps Hector Rondon and Nick Hagadone will pan out better than expected. If not, the Indians might have to consolidate one of their more valuable offensive players into an arm to expedite their rebuilding process.

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