| Christopher Reina. 2nd April, 2010 - 4:18 pm
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The White Sox thought of themselves as a playoff team for most of the summer, but they were 34-40 in the second half and 19-27 in one-run games. They also didn't get nearly enough production from their big in-season acquisitions to stay competitive with the Twins and Tigers.
2009 Opsera Finish: 14th
What Happened In The Winter
Given the aggressiveness of GM Ken Williams during the 2009 season when he acquired Jake Peavy and Alex Rios, there wasn't much for him to do except rearrange some deck chairs in the winter.
Peavy and Rios are both very expensive question marks and their ability to produce towards a level to justify their contracts could go a long ways in convincing the Reidnsdorfs to continue to keep Williams around the South Side.
His most notable offseason acquisition was his trade for Mark Teahen and the subsequent $14M extension over three seasons, as well as the move for Juan Pierre (and a lot of offsetting cash) from the Dodgers.
While the moves for Teahen and Pierre continue his fiscally hazardous trend, I did like what Williams did with his pure free agent moves. Between J.J. Putz, Mark Kotsay, Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones, along with re-signing Ramon Castro and Freddy Garcia, Williams has a half dozen vets on affordable one-year deals.
White Sox Offensive Preview
The White Sox were ranked 11th in the AL in OPS (.740) and 12th in runs scored (724). They absolutely can recover and move into the top half of the league in those two categories, but their lineup has far more questions marks than reliable parts.
Can Carlos Quentin stay healthy?
Can Alex Rios be the hitter he was in 2006 and 2007?
Is Paul Konerko really back?
Can Gordon Beckham take another step forward?
What will Alexi Ramirez bring after this disappointing 2009?
What does Jones possibly have left in the tank?
For a team competing against the certainty of the M&M boys in Minnesota for a playoff spot, the White Sox offense clearly resembles a BMW that has gone off the road and into a ditch; you're not sure you want to look, but at the same the damage may not be too bad.
It really all starts with Quentin, who came from nearly nowhere in 2008 to hit for an OPS of .965 with 36 homers only to fall in 2009 with an OPS of .779 (.323 OBP) in just under 400 plate appearances. He had a nightmare BAbip of .221 in 2009, which is bound to improve given how hard he usually hits the ball. He has looked like his 2008 self this Spring and he will almost certainly recover and approach a .900 OPS again. He also must move over to right field, though he has historically been better there than he has been in left.
Rios has also looked much better this Spring and will need to find his OBP ways again before even worrying about his power production. As bad as he was in Toronto (.744 OPS), he was even worse with the White Sox (.530 OPS) in 2009.
I don't think we'll see another OPS over .900 from Konerko, but I feel confident he's settled into that mid-.800s level. He has always hit much better against lefties than righties, so I'm sure he was bummed out more than anyone to see Nate Robertson dealt by Detroit.
Beckham had an excellent rookie season (.347/.460) and seems like the real deal regardless of where he ends up playing defensively longterm. I think his OPS can creep up from his .808 in 2009 to over .850 in 2010 because his BAbip was at .290, plus he had home/away splits of .691/.908 and first/second half splits of .751/.833.
Pierre had become a part timer since the Manny Ramirez trade for the Dodgers, so he's clearly thrilled to get everyday duty again. He had his best OBP since 2004 during the 2009 season with a mark of .365, something the White Sox would be thrilled to receive.
Ramirez was excellent against lefties (.960 OPS), but unfortunately over 75% of his plate appearances were against righties (.649 OPS). Ozzie Guillen can't afford to put in Omar Vizquel in his place too frequently, but that should protect him at least a little bit and inflate his 2010 numbers.
The MLB's great agitator A.J. Pierzynski is always good for a high average, low OBP and about a dozen homers; that shouldn't change in 2010.
Teahen is very familiar with the AL Central pitchers, but their familiarity with him probably counts as a negative.
As far as DH, I think we'll see a lot more Kotsay than Jones, as the former has hit well in the Spring.
White Sox Pitching Preview
The White Sox have one of the most well-balanced starting rotations in the game with Mark Buehrle, Peavy, Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Garcia taking the mound for the club.
Buerhle threw a perfect game in 2009 and had an ERA of 3.84, but his FIP was a mediocre 4.46 and his K/9 rate dropped from 5.76 to 4.43. Nevertheless, he has pitched at least 200 innings in every season since 2001, showing remarkable durability.
I've always felt that Peavy has become overvalued due to pitching at Petco against the modest offensive teams of the NL West, but that's not exactly fair. He had a 3.45 ERA in just over 100 innings during the 2009 season and his FIP was even better at 2.99. His K/9 rate was an excellent at 9.74, something that will be more important out of San Diego and out of the NL for Peavy to sustain his success.
Floyd was much better in 2009 than he was in 2008 despite his ERA jumping from 3.84 to 4.06. His K/9 rate increased by more than a strikeout up to 7.60, his walk and homer rate improved in his favor and his FIP dropped one full run from 4.77 to 3.77. I think Floyd is one of the AL sleepers this this season on the mound.
As Floyd was better than advertised, Danks was unquestionably worse. His ERA of 3.77 doesn't look as strong with a FIP of 4.59. His walk rate and homer rates were much worse in 2009 than 2008 and he was aided by a .273 BAbip.
Garcia is a much different pitcher than he was during his Seattle glory days or brilliant 2005 playoff run with the White Sox. He relies on his veteran caginess, which shows how far he's come from simply being a thrower. He has been roughed up towards the end of Spring, which could mean Daniel Hudson takes the fifth slot if Garcia doesn't get it figured out quickly.
Bobby Jenks remains Chicago's closer and they have good depth behind him in lefty Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz. With these three pitching late in games, I don't foresee the White Sox blowing too many late game leads, though Jenks became homer happy in 2009. Filling out the bullpen are Scott Linebrink, Tony Pena and Randy Williams.
What Are Their 2010 Chances?
The White Sox can certainly match the Twins and Tigers in terms of overall balance of talent, but they are carrying more risk with probably less upside. The depth of their starting pitching means they will take the field each day knowing they have a good shot to win, but a more consistent output from a questionable lineup is necessary for them to have a shot at winning the AL Central.
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