| Christopher Reina. 31st March, 2010 - 4:24 pm
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The Cardinals returned to the playoffs after a two-year absence in 2007 and 2008 following their 2006 World Series win, which culminated a run of six appearances in seven seasons.
2009 Opsera Finish: 4th
What Happened In The Winter
Not a whole lot happened for the Cardinals this offseason, save a $120M contract over seven seasons for Albert Pujols protection in the form of Matt Holliday. He has a career .933 OPS, but his splits away from Coors Field aren't too encouraging and it is difficult to imagine him being nearly this productive on the other side of 35. Holliday didn't seem to have any other offers that came close to this one and GM John Mozeliak clearly were unwilling to risk losing this middle of the lineup hitter under the fear that Pujols would go next without protection. The Cardinals were stuck between a rock and a hard place with Holliday and it is difficult to fault them with the signing.
While Rick Ankiel, Joel Pineiro and Mark DeRosa departed in free agency, they spent a large sum of $7.5M on Brad Penny, as well as an affordable $1M deal for Felipe Lopez.
The Cardinals were interested in extending Pujols, but that will be a gold-plated road that the two sides will go down next winter.
Cardinals Offensive Preview
Unequivocally, Albert Pujols is to the MLB what LeBron James is to the NBA. I don't think drawing the analogy to Peyton Manning in the NFL or Alexander Ovechkin to the NHL is fair to Pujols, because only the difference between LeBron and everybody else can be compared to Pujols and everybody else. The back of his baseball card is an example of dominance and perfection, combining good health and extremely high numbers in OPS, OBP and slugging. He has hit 40 or more homers in five separate seasons and I think this is the season he finally gets to 50.
Mark McGwire's first order of business should be leaving Pujols alone completely. His second order of business should be not duplicating whatever he told Holliday before the 2009 season, which some people felt may have contributed to his slow start with Oakland.
Holliday hit for an OPS of .831 with the A's and 1.023 after coming over to St. Louis. For his career, however, Holliday is typically a slow starter with career 1st half/2nd half splits of .898/.973. Perhaps most importantly for St. Louis, Holliday has thoroughly enjoyed hitting at Busch Stadium, with a career OPS of 1.173 in 193 plate appearances. Even though the Cardinals may not enjoying signing checks for Holliday in 2016, there is little doubt he will have an excellent 2010 and also provide Pujols significantly more opportunities than he otherwise would not be afforded.
The ripple effect of having Pujols and Holliday as the third and fourth hitters has a direct impact on the top of the lineup in Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus, as well as behind the tandem in Ryan Ludwick and Yadier Molina.
The Cardinals finished sixth in the NL in OPS in 2009 with a mark of .747, but that was largely due to Pujols carrying a somewhat pedestrian lineup. With so much money invested in Pujols and Holliday, the Cardinals will likely be stuck with this type of imbalance unless they can develop within.
Rasmus is a potential All-Star centerfielder, but he still needs significant improvement. He finished 2009 with a .714 OPS and a dreadful .474 mark against lefties. He also seemed to tire as the season progressed with 1st half/2nd half splits of .807/.592. Rasmus absolutely needs to improve his OBP in 2010, which was at a very low .307, whether it comes from increasing his walks and decreasing his strikeouts or merely getting a little luckier when looking at his .282 BAbip. Hitting in front of Pujols is a luxury few players are afforded and one simply needs to look at the numbers of Rich Aurilia hitting in front of Barry Bonds for the proof. Nevertheless, Rasmus plays an excellent defensive centerfield and will be an indefinite fixture in St. Louis.
After bouncing around with Texas and Cleveland, Ludwick started to find a home with the Cardinals in 2007 and solidified it in 2008 with a .966 OPS and 37 homers in 617 plate appearances. Ludwick predictably regressed in 2009, albeit more significantly than even the biggest pessimists would have predicted, hitting for an OPS of .775 (.329/.447). Ludwick has been hitting much better this Spring with his OBP back up towards his 2008 levels.
Converted outfielder into second baseman Schumaker will once again be Tony LaRussa's leadoff hitter, where he had a .364 OBP. The value of his presence on the bases can not be understated, as he had a .432 OBP in St. Louis wins and .271 in their losses. He needs to put Pujols in as many situations as possible with first base occupied.
Molina is the finest defensive catcher in the game and also has developed into a respectable hitter from where he was when he first came up. He hit for a career high OPS of .749 with an excellent OBP of .366, very rarely striking out. I expect his numbers to continue to inch into the high .700s as he continues to mature with the bat.
Brendan Ryan remains at shortstop, where he is excellent defensively and proved capable at the plate in 2009 with a .740 OPS. Ryan had a .777 OPS in the second half.
Even though DeRosa underperformed once coming over to play third, the Cardinals are a little exposed at third base with the unproven David Freese. He had an .837 OPS in just 34 2009 MLB plate appearances, but he did have a .931 in 255 minor league plate appearances in 2009.
Fortunately for St. Louis, they brought back Lopez, who had a brief stint with theta team at the end of 2008. He has had a tough time sticking anywhere for long, but he clearly can hit, at least in streaks.
The Cardinals were a fairly average defensive team in 2009, but that should uptick to at least top-10 with Rasmus and Holliday in the outfield for a full season, along with a full season at second in the books for Schumaker.
Cardinals Pitching Preview
Even with some of the greatest hitters of the game, whether it was Canseco, McGwire and Rickey with Oakland, or Pujols and McGwire again with St. Louis, the real strength of LaRussa's clubs have been on the mound through the excellent Dave Duncan. What makes Duncan's incredible stretch of success all the more impressive is that he was a catcher by trade for a decade.
The Cardinals' rotation was anchored by two Cy Young candidates in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter in 2009. Provided they remain healthy, they are every bit as good as the other front end tandems in baseball, whether it is Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in San Francisco, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels in Philadelphia or Dan Haren and Brandon Webb in Arizona.
The health of Kyle Lohse is also a big factor, as he was limited to 22 starts and had an ineffective 4.74 ERA.
Penny's detours to Boston and then to San Francisco have seemed to mature him at least a little bit and the culture Duncan provides is probably the best thing for him at this stage of his career. One-year contracts for a guy like Penny probably helps as well. He had a 2.59 ERA in six late season starts for the Giants, but I think a lot of that effectiveness was due to more smoke/mirrors than the purity of his stuff (4.3 K/9 rate). The Cardinals were a little desperate to pay such a big price for Penny, but they at least have the infrastructure in place to maximize their investment.
The fifth slot in the rotation will be Jaime Garcia, who has recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2008. He has put up very impressive minor league numbers and made the decision for St. Louis an easy one with how dominant he was in Spring Training.
Ryan Franklin will be the St. Louis closer, supported by Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan and lefties Dennys Reyes and Trever Miller.
Franklin had a 1.92 ERA in 2009, but he had a 6.75 ERA in 9.1 September innings. Even though he isn't a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher, he should be about as reliable in 2010 as he was in 2009.
What Are Their 2010 Chances?
All comparisons of the Cardinals must come against that of the Phillies because they are clearly the class of the NL Central. The Cubs have enough pieces to make a run at them, but the Cardinals have too much high end talent (Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright and Carpenter) to give much of a window.
The Cardinals don't have the offensive firepower throughout the lineup as Philadelphia, but if Ludwick and Rasmus can get hot in October, while a number three starter emerges, LaRussa's club has as good of a chance as anyone to come out of the NL.
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