| Craig Sternberg. 18th March, 2010 - 3:01 pm
 It?s been a turbulent year and a half run for the Los Angeles Angels, filled with many ups and downs. A rollercoaster of deadline deals, crafty offseason moves, inspired prospect play, free agent departures, bad contracts, injuries and even death of loved ones has made the Angels one of the more intriguing yet enigmatic baseball teams today.
With time winding down on the Vladimir Guerrero era in Anaheim, general manager Tony Reagins set out to improve the ball club one last time at the 2008 trade deadline and make a run at a championship. What he didn?t realize at the time was the consequences of his actions would set off a string of many different events that would send the Angels through one of their toughest rides in their 44-year history.
Setting things off was the shrewd deadline deal to bring Mark Teixeira to the team in 2008 from Atlanta, which was hailed at the time as one of the best deadline moves in recent memory and one that could put the Angels into the World Series. It solved many problems in one transaction: It gave the Angels a big bat to protect or hit in front of Guerrero, who before the deal was the Angels franchise player since 2004. It also gave the Angels an extremely patient hitter with a good eye and high on base percentage, something that was needed for years in the lineup. Lastly, it gave the Angels the potential to have a star player after Guerrero?s contract ran out to help carry the team offensively upon his departure. Teixeira seemed like the perfect fit at the perfect time for this team to make a run towards a championship and build a team around. After getting to the playoffs and getting eliminated by familiar foe Boston, the rollercoaster ride went into a warp speed of uncertainty and hasn?t looked back since.
The Angels dove right into the off-season that winter knowing full well that it was the most important off-season in franchise?s history. Key Angel contributors like Teixeira, Garret Anderson and Francisco Rodriguez were all free agents. The Angels faced a searing dilemma of wanting to build the best team possible around their franchise player for the last few years Guerrero, who was going into the final season of his contract and not over-paying for the wrong players while in the midst of an economic crisis.
The Angels quietly let Anderson walk after his numbers dwindled each of the previous four years after he signed a lucrative contract extension.
Rodriguez ended up going to the Mets after concerns over his violent delivery eventually taking its toll on the reliever.
The Angels ended up playing it straight down the middle in the Teixeira sweepstakes offering an eight-year, $160M dollar contract and refusing to go above that number, which led the Yankees to sweep in and sign him for eight-years, $180 million.
Reacting to those losses, the Angels decided their best alternative was to spend a fraction of the money they would have on short-term solutions bringing in veterans like Brian Fuentes and Bobby Abreu. The failure to retain their star players and the inability to replace them with players of equal name value led many experts and pundits to completely write off the Angels going into the 2009 season. Many in the Angels fan base panicked, seeing the sands of time melting away on the teams that came close so many times but couldn?t win it all.
Why was the team that finally made a significant trade all of sudden scared to pull the trigger in order to keep their difference maker?
Why were we overpaying guys like Gary Matthews Jr., but refusing to pony up extra money for Mark Teixeira?
Why was our payroll decreasing while other contenders were increasing theirs?
Why put our faith in unproven prospects after what happened with guys like Dallas McPherson and Casey Kotchman?
There were plenty of questions left to ponder and with most of them still unanswered our faith in the Angels rescinded.
With plenty of injuries to begin the 2009 season and key losses to the lineup and bullpen, many were predicting the Angels handing over their firm grasp on the AL West crown to the Seattle Mariners. Many assumed the Angels were planting the seeds for an inevitable rebuilding process; an opportunity to see which of their prospects had what it takes to be regular contributors at the big league level and to see if one could potentially to take them to a world series championship. Dwindling faith in the organization and ball club wasn?t just an epidemic within the Angels fan base; it had spread to the whole baseball community.
Things tend to get worse before they get better for most in their lives and the same principle applied to the 2009 Angels. Just a few games into an already injured plagued season, top-pitching prospect Nick Adenhart was killed in a car crash just hours after having pitched six shutout innings. All of baseball was shaken to its core by the news, a young player with all the potential in the world taken far too young, which didn?t even begin to describe the anguish felt in the Angels? clubhouse after the shocking news. If there were still people who hadn?t written off the Angels, this was the moment they most likely did. Many fans threw away their hopes and aspirations for the season, citing Adenhart?s death as the reason for any underachieving the Angels might endure over the course of the season. But the team wasn?t ready to be counted out just yet. While others saw the Angels title hopes as a fading memory the team rallied around each other in the name of Nick Adenhart and instead decided to become a team of possible destiny.
Many things began to click for the Angels. The starting rotation survived the injuries at the beginning of the season and acquired Scott Kazmir at the waiver wire deadline who stepped into the late Nick Adenhart?s role. The Abreu signing turned out to be a winner as he not only exceeded Anderson?s production, but had a dramatic effect on all the hitters in the lineup while preaching patience. Chone Figgins, Erik Aybar and Kendry Morales all had career years. Brian Fuentes while shaky at times still lead the league in saves with 48 and the emergence of Kevin Jepsen made the injury to Scott Shields easier to deal with. Howie Kendrick started the season on a rough note but returned from the minors to hit .358 the rest of the way. John Lackey, Tori Hunter and Vlad Guerrero all contributed at key points of the season when healthy.
The end result was the second best record in the league and an improvement in virtually all areas of their offense. The Angels went into the postseason as confident as they ever have been and finally beat The Boston Red Sox in three games. In the ALCS, the Angels faced a powerhouse New York Yankees ball club and former teammate Mark Teixeira. Much like the Angels had trouble beating the Red Sox in the past, the Yankees almost always ran into similar problems with the Angels. The past history between the two teams proved insignificant as the Yankees went on to beat the Angels in six games.
The Angels again faced many of the same challenges they had going into the previous off-season having very big choices with regards to its future. Another set of key free agents: John Lackey, Guerrero, Figgins and Abreu were all wondering about their respective futures with the Angels organization. With d?j? vu setting in, the Angels began the shift of letting the final pieces to a team that had gone to the playoffs five out of the last six years. The front office opted again to focus on small money-short-term deals to improve the teams? depth rather then pay big bucks to marquee free agents. The result was the departure of Lackey, Figgins and Gurrero, who were eventually replaced by players like Hideki Matsui, Joel Pinero and Fernando Rodney.
With many questions left again unanswered about our ball club, I propose a different set of questions for Angels and baseball fans everywhere. Why are we panicking? Why is it that we have come to doubt the Angels front office time and time again? Why do we insist on crowning teams as the division favorites who have no reason to be favored? Why do people not realize that when the Angels are flying under the radar, it?s typically when they play their best baseball? Why is it that people choose to ignore the fact that we are now one of the deepest teams in baseball? Why do people forget we were the second best team in the league last year and if not for a few bad calls we possibly could have taken the Yankees to a seven game series? With many people writing off the Angels yet again, lets take a deeper look at the Angels off-season moves and why they are still the favorites to win the AL West in 2010.
Lineup
Signings: Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Maicer Izturis and Rob Quinlan
Losses: Chone Figgins, Vladimir Gurrero and Gary Matthews Jr.
The Angels offense improved in virtually all areas in 2009 even when faced with a barrage of injuries. Young players began to blossom, veterans contributed in big spots and the offense had an overall balanced attack of speed, power, patience and timely hitting. Even with big losses at the top and middle of the order, don?t expect the offense to take a considerable drop anytime soon.
The number one priority of the Angels this off-season was re-signing new veteran clubhouse leader Abreu, who had the most dramatic impact on the team. Abreu took a significant pay cut to join the Angels and was looking for a raise that he rightfully felt he deserved. With salaries decreasing in light of the economy still, Abreu signed an above average deal for someone of his age and caliber to the tune of two years, $19 million dollars with a vesting option for a third year. With this signing, it was obvious the Angels coveted Abreu more than any other team out there and wanted to lock him up quickly before anyone else could. The deal is fair considering his production last season, but the vesting option could potentially make the deal a bad one as Abreu gets into the twilight of his career. As the offseason went on, the deal began to look worse when guys like Johnny Damon signed shorter and cheaper contracts. Nevertheless, Abreu?s impact cannot be understated as he?s had a dramatic impact on the Latin players in the clubhouse like Erik Aybar and Morales, both of whom had breakout seasons last year. Even with his age and declining defensive abilities, when considering the players he has the most impact on in the clubhouse are signed for virtual pennies compared to their production output, it really isn?t a bad deal and could prove to be a wise investment if those players continue to grow under his tutelage. Look for Abreu?s production to stay about the same in terms of statistics, but Abreu?s impact cannot be judged solely based on his production but how he affects the rest of the ball club and young players. If the lineup continues to grow, stay patient and exceed expectations Abreu will have earned his contract as not only our right fielder but as our second hitting coach.
Figgins has been one of the more important contributors to the Angels offense the past few years, providing a dose of speed at the top of the lineup that can put pressure on the opposing pitchers and teams. Losing Figgins to the Mariners does in fact sting a bit. While he was probably overpaid, Figgins seemed to come into his own last season providing great defense and becoming one of the best lead off men in the league. Typically a player of his size, stature and ability age better then most and he could very well have a few more quality years left in him. His stats however were up and down throughout his career as an Angel, leading many to think that his inconsistency will continue now that he has the contract he desires. Nevertheless, letting Figgins go will prove to be the move with the most consequence for this team in 2010 whether it be for better or worse. Great leadoff men are hard to come by in today?s game and could make or break your offense. The Angels still have the pieces to plug in to make the transition seem effortless without a lot of drop off in production.
While most will view Figgins leaving as a swap of Chone Figgins for top Angels? prospect Brandon Wood, it goes much deeper than that and is a very unfair assessment to Wood?s growth as a player. Most of Figgins? value was being the everyday leadoff man and being one of the best at it last season. This year the lead off duties will most likely go to Aybar, who excelled last season and had very comparable stats to Figgins doing most of his damage in the two hole behind Figgins last season. While it remains to be seen if Aybar can duplicate the success he had last season, he is primed and built to take the lead off spot for this organization for years to come and with Abreu hitting behind him in the line up, I see Aybar having another great year setting the table for the Angels. Aybar must improve his walk rate and most importantly his ability to steal bases and put pressure on the teams? opposing pitcher after he gets on, something Figgins was absolutely great at. Even if Aybar struggles in the lead off spot, Maicer Izturis just signed an extension with the team and could be seeing some action in the lead off spot when he?s in the line up as well. Look for both Aybar and Izturis to take the lead off spot and do a tremendous job filling in stats that are comparable to last seasons.
While many expect Wood to take Figgins? spot at third base for the foreseeable future, look for Mike Scioscia to platoon him with Maicier Izturis to start. Brandon provides above average defense at third and shortstop and could provide a power boost at the bottom end of the lineup. Wood will strike out often and needs to learn to take more walks, but all in all could have a decent season if given enough at bats to get acclimated to major league level pitching. If handled properly, expect Wood to be more Troy Glaus than Dallas McPherson. If Wood struggles mightily and doesn?t put up the power numbers some expect, look for Izturis to be plugged in which will provide a speedier lineup at the top or bottom of the order.
Matsui was brought in to replace Guerrero in the designated hitter spot in the lineup. Guerrero moves on from the fairly neutral Angels Stadium into the Ballpark in Arlington where he?ll surely thrive. Matsui comes from a very hitters friendly ballpark in Yankees Stadium. Because of the switch, many will look for a spike in production from Guerrero and a little bit of a falloff in production from Matsui, but when you take a deeper look at the stats, Matsui actually played better on the road (.286/.383/.567) than at Yankee Stadium (.265/.354/.462) last season.
Both have had trouble staying healthy, but it won?t take much for Matsui to match the same production that Guerrero put out last year. His contract essentially pays for itself from a business standpoint, as it opens the door for many new sponsors and things of the like from Japan. Matsui was brought on mainly for the sake of adding a much-needed left-handed bat in the lineup and he also brings a lot of patience that Guerrero couldn?t provide.
Another key to the season will be if the Angels can get a full year of production out of Howie Kendrick. Between injuries and being sent to the minors, we have only seen small glimpses of what Kendrick is capable of at the big league level. After going to the minors and working out kinks within his swing and working on hitting breaking pitches, Kendrick hit very well after the All-Star break.
Still, if he can stay healthy and provide a full season living up to his potential the lineup?s dynamic will change dramatically. Where Kendrick fits into the lineup becomes just as important as if he can provide a full year of production. Kendrick has notoriously struggled in the two hole (.196 BA last season) and hits better lower in the lineup. Kendrick?s contact hitting and above average speed could be great in the two hole behind Aybar, but his struggles and lack of patience in the two spot have always made him hit lower in the lineup. Look for where Kendrick hits in the lineup to be a recurring storyline throughout the season, but expect him to stay down in the lineup for most if not all the season because he has had success there in the past.
Another developing storyline this season will be the catching battle between Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli. It is no secret that Mike Scioscia is tough on his catchers and values game calling ability and defense above all else at the position. This gives an edge to Jeff Mathis, who in 657 innings caught last season gave the Angels pitching a 3.99 ERA, whereas with Mike Napoli pitchers had a 4.86 ERA in 758 innings. Mathis also threw out 24.6% of potential base stealers while Napoli threw out 14.9%. Napoli is undoubtedly a better hitter and is coming off consecutive 20 home run seasons in limited playing time, but Mathis also came on strong in last year?s playoffs offensively. Look for both to continue to split time throughout the season depending on the pitcher being caught or whether the lineup could use some more defense or offense for that specific game. Look for an improvement in Mathis with the bat in the regular season and look for Napoli to get some time at DH especially against left handed pitching. Not many teams have such a great problem like finding time to play two great young catchers, but having them aboard makes for a unique balance.
Morales had one of the biggest breakouts in all of baeball and there?s no reason to believe he shouldn?t continue his torrid hitting toward the game?s elite hitters. Morales has always been highly touted ever since his playing days for the Cuban national team. Expect big numbers out of Morales and expect for him to move up a bit in the lineup as the year goes along.
Torii Hunter has assumed the role of team captain and has been fairly consistent with his hitting ability throughout the years. If healthy most of the season, expect his hitting numbers to improve but also expect him to be streaky with the bat.
Juan Rivera will continue to get a lot of playing time as our everyday left fielder and his stats when healthy have been very consistent.
The biggest key to the Angels hitting success this year has yet to be mentioned and it has nothing to do with any of the players in the actual lineup. The biggest key to the Angels success this season is the improvement of hitting coach Mickey Hatcher. Hatcher has received criticism at times during his tenure as the Angels hitting instructor because of their tendency to be overly aggressive in the past. The Angels? aggressiveness is implemented throughout the organization when you begin as a minor leaguer and is something the team thrives on. The ability to hit for a high average and run well is very important to the Angels style of baseball in order to put pressure on the opposing team. It wasn?t until guys like Teixeira and Abreu came along that the Angels got a bit of balance when it came to OBP and power. With the Angels now having acquired the pieces to have a balance of all the things needed to make this offense dynamic, it is up to Hatcher to make the final pieces work in order to make the Angels offense thrive. Hatchers biggest challenge is helping some of the Angels young players reach their untapped potential. Many of the prospects such as Kendrick, Mathis, Napoli and Wood have yet to reach their true potential under the guidance of Hatcher. Now that Abreu has had a dramatic impact on the young Latin players and they have begun to blossom, it?s up to Hatcher to show his true worth and get some of these ?can?t miss? prospects to finally live up to their potential. If they do, this lineup will easily be one of the best in the league.
Projected Lineup
1. Erick Aybar SS
2. Bobby Abreu RF
3. Torii Hunter CF
4. Hideki Matsui DH
5. Kendry Morales 1B
6. Juan Rivera LF
7. Howie Kendrick 2B
8. Jeff Mathis/Mike Napoli C
9. Maicier Izturis/Brandon Wood 3B
Defense
The Angels defense last year stayed true to the Angels philosophy of building pitching and defense before anything else, as we saw the club once again near the top of the league in overall team defense. The Angels fell off a bit when it came to errors, but the team still managed to force the most double plays and have the third best fielding percentage in the league. With eight out of the nine fielders returning to the lineup next season, expect the Angels defense to stay near the top of the league in overall defense.
The Angels have one of the youngest and most talented infields in the league today, while the outfield is built around a solid veteran presence and one of the best defenders of our generation. Starting with the catching position, Napoli must improve his overall defense in order to stay in the lineup everyday and both Napoli and Mathis must cut down on errors and improve their percentage against would be base stealers. Morales made significant strides on his defense last season and should continue that trend now that he has one specific position to focus on. He has one of the best throwing arms in the league for a first basemen and you can expect his range to improve a bit. Kendrick has worked on his defense more than anything this offseason and should improve into a respectable defender this season. Aybar has breath-taking ability at shortstop and covers a ton of ground but must cut back the careless mistakes and treat even routine groundballs with the same focus he puts into the spectacular plays. Wood is an above average defending third basemen and so is Izturis, which should make the departure of Figgins easier to handle. All in all, the defense in the infield should improve as the young players mature and come into their own as ball players.
With an outfield spearheaded by Hunter in centerfield, you don?t often need corner outfielders with the greatest range or speed in the outfield. Hunter is still going to have to shine and be an amazing outfielder in order to make up for the lack of range from Rivera and Abreu, both of whom have watched their range decrease last season. While Rivera can make up for his lack of range with a cannon of an arm, Abreu is going to have to stay in peak condition throughout the season to be an average defender in right field and shouldn?t be far off in his career from commanding a designated hitters role.
While this certainly isn?t the best Angels defense in their teams history, this defense has a couple of truly spectacular defenders while others are improving into solid defenders. Without much change from last year, expect the Angels to have similar defensive statistics this season.
Starting Pitching
Signings: Joel Piniero
Losses: John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Shane Loux and Dustin Moseley
The Angels value pitching more then anything else when it comes to building their team each season and they are always towards the top in the league when it comes to all major pitching categories. Despite a slew of injuries last year to their pitching staff, the Angels weathered the storm and went into the postseason with an above average pitching staff. Even with the loss of their ace Lackey, the Angels still manage to have a very deep rotation heading into the 2010 season.
Lackey has become an integral part of Angel?s history in the last eight years. We watched Lackey grow from a young promising pitcher into a World Series Game 7 winner and the ace that anchored the Angels pitching staff for a good half decade. While he is a very talented player, he came with his fair share of flaws as well. Injuries the past few seasons, a poor record against his new team the Red Sox and many feeling he isn?t truly an ?Ace? of the same caliber as guys like CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Roy Halladay, etc. While it would have been nice to keep Lackey, the Angels felt his asking price was too high and let him walk to the Red Sox. So how will the Angels replace the player who had anchored their staff for so long?
During the waiver wire last season, the Angels made a low risk/high reward deal for Kazmir, who has shown flashes of potential that hint at him being an ace. Even though he has had a slew of injury problems in Tampa Bay, the Angels were willing to take on his contract and the overall risk and provided themselves some insurance going into this offseason knowing Lackey could potentially leave via free agency. One of the deciding factors in pulling the trigger on the deal was reuniting Kazmir with Angels pitching coach Mike Butcher, who had coached Kazmir to the best season of his career while still with the Rays. Reuniting Kazmir with Butcher, combined with a contending team and good offense behind him has Kazmir poised to have his best season yet. Kazmir has learned a new slider this spring unde Butcher and is feeling better physically then he has in years. Having a potential hard throwing left handed ace in the starting rotation that has typically had success against many of the contending teams in the American League can prove to be a huge bonus for the Angels this season.
Regardless of Kazmir?s potential and his relationship with Butcher, Ervin Santana remains the key to the Angels success this year when it comes to their starting pitching. Santana certainly has the stuff to be a very successful pitcher in the big leagues, but has often ran into roadblocks when it comes to his development. Initially showing signs of promise, Santana went on to struggle considerably on the road a few years ago. The next season he rebounded, only to struggle mightily last season. If anything, Santana has been consistent at being inconsistent and if the current trend continues all signs point to Santana being a very good pitcher this year. Having looked great in Spring so far this year, expect Santana to have a break out season and pitch much better then he did last year, which is a huge boost to the starting rotation.
Jered Weaver is slowly becoming the most dependable and consistent starter in the starting rotation and has progressed nicely into a solid number two or number three option. Look for Weaver to start the season as the team?s number one starter.
Joe Saunders, when healthy, is an extremely reliable and great pitcher as well. Another southpaw to the arsenal can certainly help against opposing teams and force them to shuffle their lineups around, facing Kazmir and Saunders in the same series can give many teams two very different looks at two different types of left handers. If Saunders can remain healthy, he will pitch much like he did toward the end of the season.
The Angels acquisition of Piniero is the most intriguing and difficult to predict. Piniero isn?t replacing a guy like John Lackey, but is instead filling in for guys like O?Sullivan and Loux who started in the 5th spot for Nick Adenhart until the acquisition of Kazmir. With that in mind, Piniero should be fine and will be used to eat up innings and pitch in the 5th spot in the rotation. The Angels quality defense on the left side of the infield will be huge for Piniero and his ground ball pitching style.
All things considered, the Angels pitching staff might not be as loaded at the top of the rotation as it was a year ago, but it is certainly deeper barring injury. While this rotation seems primed to be great in the regular season, having a true ace at your disposal for the postseason has become increasingly crucial. In order for that to happen, one or two of the pitchers in the starting rotation will have to make a leap to the next level and become enshrined in our memories.
Starting Rotation
Jeff Weaver
Scott Kazmir
Ervin Santana
Joe Saunders
Joel Pienero
Bullpen
Signings: Fernando Rodney
Losses: Darren Oliver and Shane Loux
The Angels bullpen for years was one of their strongest points, with young lively arms mixed with reliable veterans, the Angels rarely gave up leads going into the 8th inning. Last year, the Angels definitely showed some flaws in their late inning relief situations even though the teams closer Brian Fuentes led the league in saves. With Scot Shields missing the entire season and Fuentes shaky at different times throughout the season, Darren Olivier, Jason Buldger and Kevin Jepsen all emerged with good performances last season. The Angels still knew that in order to contend next year they had to improve their bullpen and acquired some more pieces this offseason to make it happen.
Fuentes was a decent closer throughout the season, but he certainly put the Angels in some shaky situations. Several times toward the end of the season the Angels enlisted emerging reliever Jepsen to close out games, especially against right handed batters. With the potential for Fuentes contract to vest this season, the Angels went out and acquired hard throwing right hander Fernando Rodney to be Fuentes setup guy or potentially close out some games if Fuentes again continues to struggle. While they certainly might have overpaid for him, when taking into account Fuentes vesting option it makes sense why they would acquire another reliever to possibly stop that option from vesting. It also gives the Angels one of the more versatile and hard throwing bullpens in the league, something that can pay huge dividends come playoff time.
With Shields returning from injury and the emergence of young relievers like Jepsen and Buldger, the Angels have accumulated a ton of different assets and different relievers they can throw at you regardless of the situation. The Angels have four guys who could potentially fit into the setup or closer roles this season and it?s very possible we might see all four of them close games this season. With a full season of Jepsen and Buldger playing at their potential look for them to continue to improve this season and for Jepsen to potentially become the closer on this team. With many different quality relievers, this also prevents manager Mike Scioscia from over using his set up men much like he?s done with Shields and Jepsen in the past.
Bullpen
Bulger
Jepsen
Shields
Rodney
Fuentes
Conclusion
The Angels are poised to make another run at an AL West title this season. This team is as deep as it has ever been and has some assets it could potentially trade off for another big name player if the situation presents itself. Like most teams, so much of the Angels success rides on the health of everyone involved, but they should remain in contention regardless. |
