| Christopher Reina. 15th March, 2010 - 7:44 pm
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The Phillies returned to the World Series for the second consecutive season, which was the first time any team has completed that feat since the 2001 Yankees and the first NL team since the 1996 Braves. Their AL style lineup and the pitching of Cliff Lee overwhelmed the Rockies and Dodgers, but wasn't enough to let them repeat as champions when they met the Yankees.
I wasn't a big believer in Philadelphia's 2009 playoff chances because of the downturn seen by their pitching staff, but the midseason trade for Lee was the biggest single factor in giving that monster lineup a quality pitcher to match their output.
2009 Opsera Finish: 6th
What Happened In The Winter
The Phillies could have complacently sat on their uber-talented team and remain the prohibitive favorites in the NL East and the National League in general, but they very boldly dealt for Roy Halladay and signed him to an extension that could run through 2014, while also dealing out Lee.
Ruben Amaro made smaller moves by signing Placido Polanco to replace Pedro Feliz, along with lower risk acquisitions of Danys Baez, Jose Contreras and Brian Schneider.
The Phillies hope the Polanco signing mirrors last season's Raul Ibanez move where they struck early and paid well above what the market dictated. His OPS has been over .800 just once in the past four seasons, so it could end up being closer to San Francisco's Edgar Renteria signing a year ago given the dollar amount.
Beyond Feliz, the Phillies also lost Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre and Matt Stairs, amongst others. I think the departures of that group, which gave them some veteran depth will be costly and wasn't really replaced.
Amaro also took care of some future bookkeeping by extending Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton and Carlos Ruiz. All three deals provide some stability long-term, probably over their true value, but not by enough to make anyone cringe.
Phillies Offensive Preview
The Phillies had a .781 OPS in 2009, up from .770 in 2008, while they also scored 21 more runs (first in the NL). From one to eight, the Phillies have the best lineup in the NL and second best isn't not even close.
Nothing should really change much in 2010, so long as Chase Utley and Ryan Howard stay healthy, Jimmy Rollins doesn't have an OBP under .300, Jayson Werth continues his mid-career surge, Raul Ibanez continues his late career surge and Victorino continues to get a little better.
Rollins is a career .329 OBP hitter, so he is extremely unlikely to put a .296 again in 2010. At the same time, his .875 OPS MVP season in 2007 is not a realistic expectation. The Phillies are a significantly better team when he is hitting well and getting on base, especially with doubles and triples and they need that table setter again. Utley's drop in RBIs was directly related to Rollins' inability to get on base.
Howard and Utley are now in the middle of their primes and will reliably have an OPS between .900 and 1.000.
Werth is in his walk year and the Phillies will unlikely be able to afford to re-sign him given what his market will look like, departing the way Aaron Rowand did. Domonic Brown is Werth's replacement in waiting and how he develops in 2010 will inform us just how much Philadelphia will miss Werth, one of the only righty bats in their lineup.
Carlos Ruiz upticked his .620 OPS in 2008 to .780 in 2009 with a great second half and great playoff run. He should still be an above average hitting catcher, but the Phillies can't realistically expect a repeat performance.
Philadelphia's bench is a little unimpressive, though Ben Francisco had an excellent .843 OPS after coming over from Cleveland. He shrunk up in the postseason and the absence of Stairs as a pinch hitter/DH takes some of that fear away that teams had for the Phillies.
Phillies Pitching Preview
If given the option between only Halladay or Lee, I would of course select the former, particularly in light of the starter southpaws Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ, but I do wish there could have been a way for it to be financially feasible to keep both pitchers. If the Phillies had Halladay and Lee as their 1-2, that would absolutely be the most lethal in baseball and turn Hamels into a much more trustworthy number three. Philadelphia presently has more than enough starting pitching to compete with whomever wins the American League, but they are at a disadvantage behind Halladay unless Hamels can bounce back.
Halladay's transition to the NL should be seamless and anything other than a top-three finish in Cy Young voting will be a major shock. He has been brilliant in the AL East and facing more modest lineups and a pitcher two or three times per start could lower his ERA below 2.50.
Hamels followed up his excellent first 500 big league innings with a 4.32 ERA in 2009 where he proved very hittable (9.6 H/9). He initially looked like an ace for a very long time to come, but his regular season and playoff outings didn't give that indication at all.
Happ had a 2.93 ERA, but he had just 119 strikeouts in 166 innings and projects like a third or fourth starter at best.
Blanton is what he is at this point, a sturdy innings eater who will fluctuate between two and five allowed runs per start. It will be interesting to see if Blanton's K/9 and K/BB rates remain as strong as they were in 2009.
The midseason signing of Pedro proved pivotal and they could look to go that route again with John Smoltz should Jamie Moyer and/or Kyle Kendrick struggle to record outs.
In the bullpen, Philadelphia has gone from a position of strength in 2008 to uncertainty in 2010. Brad Lidge finished 2009 with an ERA of 7.21, which could mean a lot of Ryan Madson again this season. Baez has experience closing, but he clearly doesn't have the stuff for that since his injury. He was able to get people out with Baltimore in 2009, but he is far from dominant and best suited for the seventh inning to be generous.
Given the fact that this staff faces NL hitters and has an embarrassment of riches in terms of runs to work with, the pressure on this staff will be merely to stay healthy and avoid gruesome innings.
What Are Their 2010 Chances?
Many people expect the Phillies to have elevated themselves to death, taxes, playoffs status, but the Braves and Marlins have enough talent to actually give them at least a small run for their money. The Phillies were 9-9 against Florida and 8-10 against Atlanta, who finished six and seven games behind them respectively in 2009.
A lot of things have gone right for the Phillies over the past few seasons, whether it is the Mets' meltdowns or their October timing and even though they are an easy bet to reach the playoffs again, Roy Halladay's first foray into the postseason may be short-lived unless that staff behind him delivers.
Philadelphia's all-time Opsera database
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