| Christopher Reina. 8th March, 2010 - 5:00 pm
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For the seventh time in the last eight seasons, the Boston Red Sox reached the postseason, continuing their most sustained era of excellence since the decade that began 100 years ago. What is most impressive is that almost the entire 2004 roster is now gone, save for David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Kevin Youkilis and Tim Wakefield.
They won at least 95 games for the third consecutive season and were third in runs, second in OPS, but 16th in ERA.
In the postseason, they were swept by the Angels in three games; scoring just one run in two games in Anaheim and blowing a two-run lead in the ninth innings of Game 3.
2009 Opsera Finish: 5th
What Happened In The Winter
Perhaps with a nod to Carl Crawford in next winter's free agency class, the Red Sox avoided two sluggers worthy of playing the famed left field at Fenway in Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, instead signing Mike Cameron to a two-year deal worth $15.5M. Bay signed a deal with the Mets that will pay him an annual average of $16.5M, which wasn't exactly out of Boston's price range. The Red Sox had concerns, seemingly legitimate, about Bay's potential injury concerns and his mediocre defensive ability.
The Red Sox took that Bay money to improve an already deep pitching staff by signing John Lackey to an $82.5M deal.
But they also spread things around by signing Marco Scutaro to stop the revolving shortstop door, Adrian Beltre to play third base and Jeremy Hermida in a trade with Florida to be their fourth outfielder, while bringing in Bill Hall as a salvage case.
Management tried unsuccessful trade Mike Lowell and also flirted with Adrian Gonzalez trade talks while stalling on extension talks with this coming winter free agents Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez.
Red Sox Offensive Preview
The Red Sox continue to field an offensively gifted team with good depth, but there is a clear absence of the kind of elite, middle of the order sluggers they had when Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were in their prime.
Boston was ranked second in team OPS in 2009 and have enough reliable hitters to remain in the top-five despite the departure of Bay. Youkilis, J.D. Drew and Ortiz could be .900 OPS hitters and though Martinez had a .912 OPS in a Red Sox uniform, he is more apt to be in the mid .800s with Dustin Pedroia and possibly Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury. In the .700s will likely be Beltre, Jason Varitek, Scutaro, though they are of course capable of being in the high .600s.
The Red Sox hit for an MLB best .834 OPS with runners in scoring position and an even better, downright outstanding .890 OPS with RISP and two outs. The Yankees, in comparison, hit for an OPS of .762 with RISP and two outs.
Youkilis has had an OPS of .959 and .961 in the past two seasons and is a near lock to be in the same range again in 2010. He is of course an OBP legend and had a mark of .413 in that category, but his ISOP of .242 ranked 24th in baseball, behind teammates Drew and Bay. The Red Sox will need Youkilis to consistently hit for power in that cleanup slot.
Pedroia had an .819 OPS in his first post-MVP season, which was a predictable decline but a small one.
Ortiz had an .866 OPS in the second half and a .947 OPS in September. The odds of him getting back to the .900s are very long, but he should at least reliably be in the .800s in a walk year.
Ellsbury has the chance of becoming an All-Star this season with numbers like 15 homers, 15 triples, 30 doubles, 80 stolen bases and 115 runs.
Red Sox Pitching Preview
The Red Sox have the deepest collection of starters in baseball, with either Clay Buchholz, Tim Wakefield, or even Daisuke Matsuzaka becoming starter 5B. Ahead of those two pitchers are four very good starters who would be a No. 1 or No. 2 for most any other team in baseball. The starters are certain to improve their 19th ranked, 4.63 ERA of 2009 when they finished behind the likes of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Texas.
I consider Jon Lester the ace of the staff, after coming off a season as he got better as the months progressed and finish the campaign with a 3.41 ERA and 10.0 K/9 rate. He has been far healthier than Matsuzaka and Beckett and should be their best candidate for Cy Young.
Beckett will be a free agent after the season and therefore will aim to remain a provable workhorse as he turns 30. He appeared more comfortable at Fenway, with a 3.59/4.13 split, which was a complete reverse of his 2008 when he had a 5.65 ERA at home and 2.85 on the road.
The adjustment of Lackey to the AL East and to the Boston media will be interesting. He is clearly a sensitive guy and there is significantly more individual scrutiny putting on a Red Sox uniform than being a member of the Halos. He has been very consistent since 2005 with ERAs of 3.44, 3.56, 3.01, 3.75 and 3.83, but has a less than stellar career mark of 5.75 at Fenway. That number should of course improve in a bigger sample size and also by trading out facing the Red Sox lineup and replacing it with the likes of Baltimore and Kansas City.
How Boston handles the situation amongst Matsuzaka, Wakefield and Buchholz will be interesting because I doubt they would want to demote Buchholz if this was a blind, no history involved decision.
In 2009, their bullpen ranked 8th with a 3.80 ERA, but the Papelbon end to the season presented some question marks. Papelbon had a 1.85 ERA, improved from 2.34 in 2008 with a near-identical K/9 rate. The primary decline of concern was his propensity to walk batters, with 3.2 BB/9.
Daniel Bard appears to be a closer in waiting if Papelbon prices himself out of what the Red Sox would feel comfortable paying. Hideki Okajima and Ramon Martinez are still taking the mound out of the bullpen, though th AARP section of Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner have departed.
What Are Their 2010 Chances?
Any team with this great of depth of talent has an excellent shot at reaching the playoffs despite very good in-division teams in New York and Tampa Bay. They should be in the top-five in Opsera and win at least 90 games. They would be the clear favorites in any other division, but the playoffs are probably only a 75% likely scenario because of the Yankees and Rays.
The Red Sox pitchers will hold teams to few enough runs to hide any deficiencies in the lineup in what is a bit of a transition season for them. The starters should improve their numbers substantially, which should offset Boston's timely hitting coming back down from their clutch numbers of 2009.
Red Sox Franchise History Opsera
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