| Christopher Reina. 12th February, 2010 - 2:34 pm
 Tim Lincecum and the Giants reached terms on an 11th hour two-year contract before his 2010 contract was set to be settled by an arbiter. While the Giants had offered Lincecum $8 million in arbitration, the two-time Cy Young winner was hoping for $13 million.
With this agreement, both sides hedged their risk and walk away with a good deal.
There is quite a bit of symmetry in the deal if you take away the $2 million signing bonus. Lincecum will make $8 million in 2010 and $13 million in 2011, so the Giants and his agent Rick Thurman essentially split the difference in the offers.
The real risk for the Giants was that they would lose the arbitration case, being forced to pay $13 million in 2010 with that salary possibly being increased above $15 million or $16 million this time next year when they would have to go through the arbitration case again.
Such a scenario would be anathema to other owners, who have been watching the Lincecum case closely, as they did with Ryan Howard and every other possible landmark arbitration case over the past few seasons.
The best value in sports are young players like Lincecum, who make pennies on the dollar during their first six years of MLB service. The NBA corrected its system with draft slotting after the days of Chris Webber and Glenn Robinson receiving gigantic contracts and the NFL is attempting to do the same in their new CBA.
A $23 million contract over two seasons for a two-time Cy Young award winner is clearly a new benchmark, but it is something even the most cost-conscious, small market owners could tolerate.
Given the way Lincecum is marketed ad nauseum by the Giants and how their attendance spikes with every start he makes with a buzz that is similar to Pedro during his Boston days, the ROI remains very healthy for the franchise.
With either Todd Wellemeyer, Madison Bumgarner or Joe Martinez filling the number five slot in the rotation, the Giants still have a relatively affordable payroll despite Barry Zito's $18.5 price tag. Averaging out their salaries, the Giants are paying just over $7 million apiece for their five starters, with Matt Cain becoming their best bargain at $4.5 million. Cain will be eligible for arbitration next winter, which will be interesting to watch in relation to this winter's Lincecum case.
Grade for Giants: A-
Lincecum gets two years of financial security while maintaining his high end potential for 2012 and 2013 when he will be eligible for arbitration again before becoming a free agent in 2014. The injury risk is always humongous for any starting pitcher, let alone one that even someone like me at an even six feet tall towers over in the clubhouse who relies so much on an unorthodox torque.
I believe Lincecum's number was closer to reality than what the Giant offered, so it would have been better than a 50/50 proposition for him to get the $13 million. But the upside of the gamble wasn't there for Lincecum since he probably would have been capped out at about $28 million by an arbiter over the next two winters.
Grade for Lincecum: B+
Lincecum has been ranked second and sixth in terms of season FIC during the past two seasons, giving him Reina Values of +5,233% +2,823%, which clearly shows how much value the Giants have received from their $405,000 and $650,000 investment.
Over the past two seasons, Lincecum has an ERA+ of 173 (2.55 regular ERA), which is far and away the best in baseball. Since 1960, Lincecum ranks behind only Mark Fidrych and Doc Gooden in comparing the ERA+ over pitchers first three seasons. Interestingly, Roy Oswalt, Orel Hershiser, Aaron Sele, Barry Zito, Vida Blue, Jerry Koosman and Tom Seaver complete the top 10. |
