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Grading The Deal: Red Sox Replace Lowell With Beltre
Andrew Perna. 5th January, 2010 - 3:10 pm


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The Boston Red Sox reached an agreement with free-agent third baseman Adrian Beltre on a one-year, $10 million contract on Monday night, according to numerous sources.

Beltre still needs to pass a physical, but should officially be a member of the Red Sox by the end of the week.

According to ESPN.com, Beltre will earn a base salary of $9 million in 2010 and the contract includes a $5 million player option for 2011 and a $1 million buyout.

The addition of Beltre spells the end for Mike Lowell in Boston.

The Red Sox have a history of trading away aging players and paying a portion of their salaries simply to be done with them and that's exactly what will happen with Lowell.

In fact, had it not been for Lowell's troublesome thumb, which was repaired last month, the third baseman would be a member of the Rangers with the Red Sox paying a majority of his 2010 salary.

Lowell should be healthy by the start of Spring Training, when Boston will accelerate their efforts to move him if they haven't already. It'd be shocking if the Sox opted to keep him because of David Ortiz, who has the DH spot nailed down.

Beltre has won two Gold Gloves and represents a defensive upgrade over Lowell.

Some in Boston are shocked at his price tag, but if the experiment doesn't work he'll be off the books next season. Even if Beltre struggles, it's doubtful that he'll exercise his $5 million option for 2011. If he does, Boston is getting a more-than-serviceable player for bargain price.

He'll essentially replace Jason Bay, who signed with the Mets as a free-agent, in the lineup as Boston's No. 6 hitter. Looking at the black-and-white statistics, it's a severe offensive drop.

Bay has hit .267 with an average of 29 home runs and 101 RBIs in the last three seasons, split between the Pirates and Red Sox.

Beltre, meanwhile, has hit .269 with 20 home runs and 73 RBIs over the last three years, all of which came with the Mariners.

He doesn't have the power that Bay does, but Beltre has hit hot stretches before in his career. He clubbed 48 home runs in 2004 while with the Dodgers, which he parlayed into a lucrative contract with Seattle.

Beltre also played just 111 games in 2009, which severely reduced his production. His power numbers would actually be closer to Bay's had he not missed time with injuries this past year.

Beltre will have better help in the lineup, which should allow him to be more productive than he was in Seattle.

Ichiro Suzuki is great and Russell Branyan had a strong year in 2009, but the supporting cast of Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz is far superior.

Much like Bay when he came over from Pittsburgh, Beltre has limited postseason experience. He's recorded just 15 at-bats in the playoffs, hitting .267 with a single RBI. Bay hadn't played a single postseason game prior to joining the Red Sox and the transition wasn't an issue for him. He hit .306 with three home runs and nine RBIs in 14 games.

Beltre will make less than he did in 2009 ($13.4 million), but $10 million isn't too shabby and he has the chance to put up huge numbers in Boston and use that as leverage for a bigger, longer deal next winter.

Grade for Beltre: A-

He steps into a winning situation with at least a Wild Card berth likely as the Red Sox battle the Yankees for the AL East crown yet again. He may only last a season in Beantown, but he'll likely enjoy personal and team success while working on his market value.

Grade for Red Sox: B+

Boston gets younger at third with Beltre, but he'll be 31 in early April. That's a lot younger than Lowell (he turns 36 in February), but not too much. Hence, the one-year deal. I expect the Red Sox to explore keeping him around for 2011 if he turns a corner, but youth is likely on the mind of general manager Theo Epstein.

The presence of Beltre will allow the Red Sox to move Kevin Youkilis to first permanently, which is a much better proposal than using Casey Kotchman, who would have been forced to play more often if Lowell was dealt and Boston wasn't able to ink a "replacement."

Terry Francona can now trot out an infield that is comprised of Victor Martinez (catcher), Youkilis (first), Dustin Pedroia (second), Marco Scutaro (shortstop) and Beltre (third) with Ortiz at the DH spot. The Red Sox will also have flexibility with Martinez, Youkilis and Scutaro capable of playing different positions.


Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.
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