| Christopher Reina. 20th October, 2009 - 11:23 am
 The Yankees will feature a three-man rotation, which will allow CC Sabathia to pitch three games, but perhaps more important it will shorten the end of games by allows Joe Girardi to use Joba Chamberlain in any or all games of this series. Adding Chamberlain to Mariano Rivera and Philip Hughes gives the Yankees a strength in the bullpen that they hadn't enjoyed in recent postseasons. I still have nightmare visions of Tom Gordon (8.10 ERA) and Paul Quantrill (5.40 ERA) failing in key 2004 ALCS situations.
When the Yankees were knocked off by the Angels 12 months later in the 2005 ALDS, they were counting on Shawn Chacon to start, plus guys like Al Leiter and Aaron Small out of the bullpen.
For all of the money spent on the Yankees' lineup between 2002 and 2008, their pitching staff was perpetually problematic. At least on paper, the Yankees haven't been this strong on the mound since 2001.
Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, who were all free agents last winter, had ERAs of 1.35, 1.50 and 1.42 in their respective starts in the ALDS against Minnesota. Duplicating that success agains the Angels will be nearly impossible, both because this is a longer series and also because the Twins had never enjoyed the kind of success Mike Scioscia's team has had.
Sabathia has a 4.72 ERA against the Angels in 87.2 innings, while Burnett has a 4.43 mark in 40.2 innings and Pettitte has a 4.70 ERA in 189.2 career innings.
As far as the bullpen, Rivera has a 3.56 ERA against the Angels, which is his worst against any single team. Chamberlain has a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 innings and Hughes has a 5.23 ERA in 10.1 innings.
At least going into the series, the relative strength of the Yankees' pitching is negated by the Angels' previous success. The success on the part of the Angels isn't nearly overwhelming enough, however, to expect the Yankees' offense to always be striking distance, so how has the offense fared in the past against John Lackey, Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver and Scott Kazmir.
Lackey has a 2.57 ERA in his one start this season against the Yankees, but a career mark of 4.66 in 102.1 innings. Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter all have an OPS around 1.000 against Lackey. Alex Rodriguez has been either feast or famine, hitting four homers in 51 at bats, but he has also struck out 23 times and has an OPS of .766.
Saunders has been owned by Rodriguez, who has a 1.604 OPS in 14 at bats, while Jeter (1.233) and Posada (1.100) have good histories. Hideki Matsui homered in his lone previous at bat against Saunders, while Teixeira has found him enigmatic with a .347 OPS in 18 plate appearances. Nick Swisher is the hitter most familiar with Saunders from his Oakland days and he has a pedestrian OPS of .741 in 25 plate appearances.
Weaver has a home/road split this season of 2.90/4.78, so starting him in Game 3 in Anaheim was very wise. Like Saunders, Weaver has been utterly owned by Rodriguez, who has a 1.607 OPS and four homers in 15 career at bats. Teixeira, Cano and Swisher have enjoyed success against Weaver, while Posada, Matsui, Jeter and Damon have been almost completely shutout.
Kazmir became his old self once he arrived in California in the end of August, posting a 1.73 ERA in his six starts. He is of course very familiar with the Yankees given his time in the AL East with the Rays. He hasn't wanted much to do with Teixeira, walking him five times in 18 plate appearances, while doubling in four at bats. Teixeira's 1.667 OPS will hopefully offset his expected struggles against Saunders. Posada and Melky Cabrera are the only other Yankees who have hit Kazmir well, with the remaining regulars all having an OPS .600 or below, with Jeter and Rodriguez .442 and .425 respectively.
Brian Fuentes doesn't have a lot of history against the Yankees, though Rodriguez and Swisher have homered. Fuentes pitches to contact much more so than in the past (7.5 K/9 rate in 2009), which is dangerous in late game situations against the New York lineup.
Unlike past seasons when the Yankees had high-priced free agents either be non-factors or even be no-shows, they are almost squarely relying on the $161 million arm of Sabathia, $82.5 million arm of Burnett and Teixeria's $180 million bat. Sabathia and Burnett will set the tone for 71% of these games and how well Teixeria hits will also largely determine the $275M man, who despite two huge homers in the ALDS won't be able to go down the street New York in peace until a World Series is won. |
