| Derek Bodner. 7th October, 2009 - 2:51 pm
 The real season starts now.
After furious rallies to make the playoffs in each of the last two years (one of which was accomplished in historic fashion), the Phillies have found themselves in unfamiliar territory. Following a sweep of the Marlins after the All-Star break and the mid-season acquisition of the reigning AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, winning the NL East has been expected.
Outside of a late-season run by the Braves, the Phillies lead has remained consistent. Meanwhile, they have been playing uninspired baseball for the last month. They entered the playoffs on a tear the last two years, so can they flip the switch?
The Phillies are tops in the NL in runs scored and home runs. They also have the fifth best ERA in baseball since the All-Star break, a combination that usually brings postseason success. So why the concern? How about a 17-16 record since the beginning of September, inconsistent pitching from the entire starting staff, injuries to prominent relievers, an absolutely terrifying closer situation and a month-long slump from Chase Utley.
Despite having a more talented starting rotation than in year's past, it's a group that's not pitching at the top of their game. Cole Hamels (last year's World Series MVP) and Lee (last year's AL Cy Young winner) are both running through bouts of inconsistency, showing equal flashes of brilliance and struggle. The worry of having tired arms is real, with Hamels leading the league in innings pitched last year and Lee pitching the most innings in his career for the second year in a row.
Combine that with Joe Blanton, the model of consistency in June, July and August, having been bombed in three of his last five starts and Pedro Martinez struggling with a neck injury and the Phillies are presented with an extremely talented, but combustible, starting rotation.
The struggles in the ninth inning have been well-documented, and are no closer to resolution. To make matters worse, the bullpen has had some of it's depth depleted due to injury, with prominent relievers J.C. Romero and Chan Ho Park not in Charlie Manuel's arsenal.
Perhaps the most worrisome is Utley's collapse and what it means to the offense. After hitting .313 with 20 home runs and a 1.004 OPS before the break, Utley has struggled mightily of late, hitting only .204 in September. This (along with Shane Victorino's struggles) has led to an inconsistent offense that could be problematic, especially if the starting pitching isn't on the top of their game.
Still, this is clearly a talented team, and one that if their healthy components return to top form is going to be a tough out for anyone in either league. But, at this point, fans are riding more on hope than confidence. How much of the team's struggles and inconsistency were the case of not being challenged? Can the team flip the switch and revert to form? I'd rather be confident than hopeful.
All that being said, the Rockies may be the best draw for the Phillies in the first round. That may sound odd, considering the Rockies are the only NL playoff team that didn't go limping into the playoffs, but Philadelphia matches up favorably with Colorado's left-handed heavy lineup and right-handed heavy starting rotation. The Rockies produce only a .765 OPS against lefties, and the home-road split is perhaps more troublesome, producing only a .719 OPS on the road.
Overall, the Phillies have a solid chance of advancing past the first round, but if they want to have a legitimate shot at repeating a host of questions need to be answered.
The test starts Wednesday
--Derek Bodner can be reached at derek.bodner@phillyarena.com |
