| Andrew Perna. 7th August, 2009 - 11:51 am
 There are two schools of thought regarding the pitching of John Smoltz in Boston this season.
On one side you have the typical pessimistic point of view that sees Smoltz as washed up. In eight appearances since his debut with the Red Sox on June 25, the 42-year-old right-hander has a bloated 8.33 ERA and is just 2-5.
In the other corner you have a new breed of Red Sox Nation that views Smoltz as an asset that still needs time to work out lingering kinks from season-ending shoulder surgery last June. Sure, Boston has just two victories in his eight starts, but his value will be showcased in October.
The pessimists gained an edge on Thursday night when Smoltz recorded the shortest outing of his brief tenure with the Sox, lasting just 3 1/3 innings in a 13-6 drubbing at the hands of the rival Yankees. The former Cy Young winner allowed eight runs on nine hits, walked four and struck out three batters. His ERA, already disappointing at 7.12, jumped up more than a full point.
While it's obvious that things look pretty bad for Smoltz on the surface, a deeper look into the numbers indicates that he could turn the corner before it's too late.
He has pitched just forty innings in 2009, so the sample set of data isn't comparable to the innings he was used to logging for the Braves, whether as a starter or reliever, but it isn't without legitimacy either.
His ERA (8.33) will almost certainly decrease by the end of September, but chances are that his season-ending mark will be higher than 4.00 for the first time since 1994. It's never been greater than 5.48, the ERA he posted in 1988, his rookie season. If you were wondering, Sox reliever Daniel Bard was just three when Smoltz entered Major League Baseball.
Obviously, if your ERA is approaching four digits there are going to be a number of other unsightly statistics as well.
He is striking out just 7.43 per nine innings, a four-year low and the fifth-lowest average of his career. Hitters are absolutely teeing off on him, posting a .343 average (92 points higher than in any other season), a .384 OBP (15 points greater than in rookie year) and an OPS of, gulp, .969. He hasn't allowed opponents an OPS of higher than .690 since 1988.
For comparisons sake, let's look at how Smoltz matches up to Chien-Ming Wang, who was struggling so badly before his seemingly season-ending shoulder injury that the Yankees sent him down to refine his approach.
Innings, ERA, HRs, K/BB, Avg, OBP, SLG, OPS
Smoltz: 40, 8.33, 8, 7.43, .343, .384, .587, .969
Wang: 42, 9.64, 7, 1.53, .365, .429, .597, 1.019
It's clear that Wang was a tad worse than Smoltz, but the numbers also reveal that a majority of his issues were tied to control and location issues. He is far from a strikeout pitcher, but his K/BB is atrocious and hitters were reaching base almost half of the time they came to the plate against Taiwan's pride and joy.
Smoltz hasn't been that much better than Wang was, which shouldn't be much of a problem for a team that is heralded for their deep pitching staff. Why not just replace him? It's clear that general manager Theo Epstein and manager Terry Francona are expecting Smoltz to get better, but how long will they wait?
With Daisuke Matsuzaka ("injury" and other issues) and Tim Wakefield (injury) out of the rotation, the Red Sox don't have many options. They traded Justin Masterson in the Victor Martinez deal, leaving them with only minor league hurlers as a replacement for Smoltz.
It was reported on Thursday that Boston signed Paul Byrd, but it'll take him quite a while to work himself back into shape.
So, it appears as though the Red Sox will start Smoltz until at least Wakefield returns from the disabled list. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if Francona left Smoltz in the rotation and shifted Clay Buchholz to either the bullpen or Triple-A Pawtucket when the All-Star knuckleballer returns.
We've covered just how bad Smoltz has been, but are there any indications that he could turn things around if given more time to get back into the groove?
His strikeouts-per-walk number (3.67) is decent. It has higher in each of the last three years, but is better than it regularly was during his prime in Atlanta. He's not inducing as many ground balls as he has in recent years, but the difference isn't staggering. His ratio in 2009 is 0.75, and has hovered around .90 for his career.
Smoltz has also had some bad luck on the mound this season.
Boston is averaging 5.3 runs per game in 2009, and the club has scored 5.6 runs per contest in Smoltz's eight starts. However, the numbers are deceiving.
The Sox have posted 21 runs in his two wins, and just 24 in the remaining six starts. The offense also tends to come alive after he has already been removed from the game.
Smoltz will almost certainly improve, even if he has to get by simply on experience and craftiness. However, he isn't going to be the quality start machine he once was.
The Red Sox have a high-powered offense, and proper (and consistent) run support should help pick Smoltz up on the nights he's way off. If they don't, and Smoltz fails to pitch better, the difference between Boston and New York in the AL East may look a lot similar to the number of times the right-hander takes the mound.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
