| Derek Bodner. 4th August, 2009 - 10:36 am
 The Phillies been on the other end of the trade deadline spectrum.
Philadelphia fans watched in disbelief as their ace got traded for Vicente Padilla, Travis Lee and Omar Daal. They've seen players demand trades, and players shed for salary purposes. They've seen the Phillies assume the role of reluctant buyers, making "huge" trade deadline acquisitions like Turk Wendell. So,please excuse Phillies fans if they're not exactly sure how to react to the addition of Cliff Lee.
Sure, Lee is not Roy Halladay, and after spending the better part of a month talking about how great of an addition the right-hander from Toronto would have made to the Phillies' staff, it's easy to overlook how great of a move adding Cliff Lee is. The trade is an unqualified success, allowing the Phillies to improve their chances of immediate success while keeping the farm system ripe with young, cheap talent ready to contribute.
I liked Jason Knapp, but the kid is just 18 years old and currently on the disabled list. He's years, and many good breaks, away from contributing at the major league level. Carrasco, Donald and Marson were highly thought of heading into the season, but all have stumbled to varying degrees this year.
None of the four traded players would likely be listed as a top-five prospect in the organization right now. If you can get the reigning American League Cy Young winner without giving up any player currently on your major league roster and without trading any of your top-five prospects, that's a trade you have to make.
It's not only the talent level which they traded, but also the talent they didn't trade that makes this deal so much of a slam dunk. The top prospects the Blue Jays were asking for are either currently producing at the big league level or close to it. J.A. Happ is making a case for Rookie of the Year, while Kyle Drabek (promoted to AA Reading at the beginning of June), Taylor (promoted to AAA a few weeks ago), and Dominic Brown (promoted to AA a few days ago) are moving up the ladder.
If the goal of trading for Halladay was to try to win the next two Octobers, losing three out of Happ, Taylor, Brown and Drabek would have been costly. That's not necessarily just production in 2012 you're risking, but also in the next fourteen months.
Lee may not give you a season like 2008 again, but he has firmly established himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Looking at 2007 as an aberration, when he never fully recovered from a groin strain that caused him to start the year on the disabled list, he has been getting progressively better throughout his career. His HR/9, BB/9 and strikeouts per walk show 2008 was not a fluke, and that Lee is a significantly better pitcher than he was in 2005 and 2006.
One concern has been Lee's moving away from Cleveland's Progressive Field, generally recognized as a historically pitcher-friendly park. This concern is mostly quelled by his outstanding numbers away from home. In 12 road starts this year, Lee has a 3.03 ERA and opponents actually have both a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage against him at home than on the road. Similarly, Lee gave up fewer home runs per nine innings and a lower slugging percentage on the road than at home last year. Expect his numbers to carry over, especially considering the advantage he should gain in switching leagues.
The Phillies made a trade for October, a deal with very little risk and very large upside. With a seven-game lead in the division, the front office could have gotten frustrated with the Halladay negotiations and justifiably made the argument that they could compete with the roster they had. Instead, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. made a tremendous acquisition with very little negative effect on the long-term health of the farm system.
Had the Phillies not spent the last few weeks salivating over Doc Halladay, there would be nary a naysayer to this deal.
Enjoy watching Cliff Lee in October, and be happy the Phils aren't on the other end of this type of deal.
Derek Bodner can be reached at derek.bodner@phillyarena.com |
